ROI - To calculate Return On Investment on each dollar, divide
the profit by the original stake. So if made 50 $2.00 wagers and got back
$150.00, you bet $100.00 and had a profit of $50.00. You divide 50 by 100 - .50
or fifty cents on a dollar, or an ROI of 1.50, meaning that for every dollar you
bet, you made a profit of 50 cents.
Top Mud Sires (wet track sires and pedigrees)
Horses with these names in their pedigree should like off
tracks. I update this list regularly. This includes sires, dam sires, and broodmares. In some cases I've
listed horses from similar families. For instance, Grindstone/Birdstone,
Machiavellian and Street Cry. Relaunch (In Reality) is one of the most famous
mudders so I also have other horses like Bertrando and Officer on the list,
because they are from the same line. My main point of reference is the win
percentages on off tracks of the sires and grandsires.
Afleet
Air Forbes Won
American Pharoah
A P Indy
Arch
Arrogate
Awesome Again
Bellamy Road
Benny The Bull
Bertrando
Birdstone
Blame
Blushing Groom
Boundary
Broad Brush
Bustin Stones
Cape Town
Candy Ride
Carson City
Cee's Tizzy
Central Banker
City Zip
Clever Trick
Conquistador Cielo
Constitution
Cormorant
Council Member
Crafty Prospector
Cure The Blues
Curlin
Danzig
Dehere
Deputy Minister
District
Distorted Humor
Dixie Union
El Prado
Elusive Quality
Fappiano
Forty Niner
Ghostzapper
Gone West
Grindstone
Gulch
Gun Runner
Into Mischief
In Reality
Invasor
Java Gold
Justify
Kingmambo
Lookin At Lucky
Lord At War
Machiavellen
Macho Uno
Magna Graduate
Malibu Moon
Medaglia d'Oro
Memo
More Than Ready
Mr Prospector
Munnings
Night Of Thunder
Noble Mission
Not For Love
Not This Time
Nureyev
Officer
Omaha Beach
Outwork
Pioneer Of The Nile
Polish Numbers
Portobello Road
Practical Joke
Pulpit
Quality Road
Quiet American
Rahy
Relaunch
Sea Prince
Sea The Moon
Sequoia Grove
Sinndar
Sky Mesa
Skywalker
Smart Strike
Speightstown
Spring At Last
Street Cry
Street Sense
Storm Cat
Successful Appeal
Super Saver
Tale Of Ekati
Tapit
Thunder Gulch
Tiago
Tonalist
Twirling Candy
Unbridled
Unbridled's Song
Uncle Mo
Valid Appeal
Valid Wager
Violence
Wagon Limit
Warrior's Reward
TRACK CLASS RATINGS
This is a list of Track Class Ratings that I made for my
book, Speed And Class Handicapping. Although this list is updated. If the track
is not on this list, we'll call it a 4. The points represent the approximate
lengths a horse has to make up when shipping. For instance, a horse that races
competitively at Gulfstream should be able to win by about 4 lengths if it ships
to a comparable class level at a grade 3 track. The difference between Grade 1
and Grade 2 tracks is not dramatic. However, the difference between Grade 1 and
Grade 3 or below is substantial. Horses that go from a Grade 2 track to a track
that's not graded has an edge.
GRADE 1 TRACKS
AQUEDUCT
MAIN
- 9
BELMONT
- 10
CHURCHIL
DOWNS
- 9
DEL
MAR - 10
GULFSTREAM - 10
KEENELAND - 10
LOS ALAMITOS Thoroughbred -8
SANTA ANITA - 10
SARATOGA
- 10
GRADE 2 TRACKS
DELAWARE
- 7
FAIR GROUNDS - 7
GOLDEN GATE - 7
LAUREL
- 7
MEADOWLANDS - 7
MONMOUTH - 7
OAKLAWN - 8
PARX - 7
PIMLICO - 7
PRESQUE
ISLE
DOWNS
- 7
TAMPA
BAY
- 7
WOODBINE - 7
GRADE 3 TRACKS
BELTERRA
PARK
- 5
EMERALD
DOWNS
- 5
EVANGELINE – 5
HORSESHOE
INDIANAPOLIS
6
LOUISIANA
DOWNS
- 5
MOUNTAINEER - 5
TURFWAY
PARK
- 6
FINGER
LAKES
- 5
PENN NATIONAL - 5
Daily Racing Form workouts at every
track..click on the link below
https://www1.drf.com/Results/Workouts.do
OPINION - This is an editorial I wrote in the fall of 2020, about a week
after the Kentucky Derby win by Authentic. The Derby was raced in the fall that
year. In 2021, trainer Bob Baffert had 5 more drug violations and was banned
from racing in the Triple Crown races and also banned in Kentucky for at least
two years.
Tainted Feed
by Bob Pandolfo
Last week I ranted about thoroughbred trainer Bob Baffert
on my Facebook page. This was after Baffert’s horse, Authentic, won the
Kentucky Derby, Baffert’s sixth
Derby
win. Some people, including a great harness trainer who now writes a column,
thought I was being too hard on Baffert. Although I provided some information
and links to articles, it was not the full story. This is. You can draw your own
conclusions.
This is a timely subject because this week the Senate
introduced a bill “The Horseracing Integrity and Safety Act”, that’s been
in the works for some time. The bill is designed to create medication and track
safety standards for all racetracks. It’s unfortunate that the Federal
Government has to get involved, but racing’s inaction has brought this on. We
can’t let trainers get away with doping horses. And, quite frankly, the amount
of thoroughbreds that have suffered lethal breakdowns in this country is much
too high. As most of you know, 27 trainers including several prominent harness
trainers were arrested by the FBI for alleged doping earlier this year and more
arrests may follow. The cases have been delayed due to Covid 19.
A few years ago, the New York Times published an article,
“Breeders Cup – Trainers Aren’t Helping As Drugs Damage Sport.” On
that list, only five trainers had more than 20 drug violations, including
Baffert. He’s had several more drug violations since that article was
published. Baffert’s frequency of drug violations was 1 in every 545 starts,
which, quite frankly, is an alarming number. In the NY Times article, there were
only two trainers that had more drug violations per start than Baffert.
There are successful trainers that have never had a single
drug violation. For instance, like Baffert, trainer Graham Motion has also
trained over 10,000 starters, but Motion, a truly great horseman, has never had
a single drug positive. Not surprisingly, Motion has been one of the most vocal
trainers advocating for the Horse Racing Integrity and Safety Act.
In that same NY Times article, it showed that trainer Shug
McGaughey also raced over 10,000 starters with only two drug violations.
Christopher Clement, another great thoroughbred trainer, had over 8,000 starters
and only one drug violation. There are actually many trainers who have had
successful careers without accruing a lot of drug violations.
Most of you know that the 27 trainers that were indicated
for doping were the people that many racing fans already suspected of doping. The
harness trainers that were indicated were already being banned from the
Meadowlands, so the Meadowlands appeared to have good reason to ban them. Kudos
to Jeff Gural for putting on honest races.
I follow drug
violations pretty closely and from my research, almost all of the trainers that
have suspicious results on the racetrack also have 10 or more drug violations
and a high number of violations per start.
And let me make something clear. I don’t believe that we
should accuse people based on success. There are a lot of very successful
trainers in both sports and success by itself doesn’t warrant suspicion. The
reason why I suspect that Baffert is a cheater is based partly on the way his
horses perform, but mostly on his history of drug violations and horse deaths.
But another problem with the Baffert horses is the way that
the California Horse Racing Board (CHRB) covers up for Baffert. During a 16
month period from November 2011 through March of 2013, 7 horses trained by Bob
Baffert in
Southern California
, dropped dead. I use that wording because the 7 horses that died did not break
down physically. They literally dropped dead. The deaths were attributed to
either cardiac arrest or aneurisms. During
that 16 month time frame, Baffert horses accounted for 2.5% of the starts in
California, but 19.4% of the deaths.
After investigating the deaths of the 7 horses, the CHRB
cleared Baffert of any wrongdoing. They didn’t fine him a penny or suspend
him. They did nothing. The press simply noted that Baffert has good friends on
the board. Baffert seemed puzzled by
the deaths but said that he was giving his horses a thyroid medication called
thyroxine “to build them up”. Rick Arthur, one of the board members, called
Baffert’s statement “surprising” because the drug is used for the
opposite, to assist weight loss. Personally, I doubt very much that the horse
deaths were caused by thyroxine, which has been abused by trainers for many
years. It most likely was a more potent drug. Baffert always has an excuse
ready, though.
Back in 2013, PETA investigated another one of the
sport’s leading trainers and found that he was giving most, if not all of his
horses, thyroxine even though, according to PETA, there was no evidence that any
of the horses needed the thyroid drug. PETA said that thyroxine
“conveniently” speeds up metabolism. Thyroxine has been widely used. When
interviewed by Ray Paulick of The Paulick Report back in 2014, Dr. Jeff Blea, a
Southern California
racetrack veterinarian, said that very few horses need a thyroid medication
like thyroxine. Blea also said that the drug increases metabolism and suggested
that trainers may be using it because it increases hyperactivity, which could be
seen as a performance enhancer.
There’s also been speculation that some trainers may be
using thyroxine as a masking agent to mitigate the effects of cobalt chloride, a
banned performance enhancing substance, which, unfortunately, seems to have been
widely used. If you do an internet search for cobalt chloride, you’ll fine
many articles about how cobalt has been used in race horse doping. One of the
trainers that Jeff Gural banned from racing at the Meadowlands was giving his
horses heavy doses of cobalt. It’s obvious why there are trainers abusing
thyroxine, and it’s not because the horses have a thyroid condition.
On the subject of hyperactivity, in this year’s Kentucky
Derby, Baffert entered two horses, Authentic, and Thousand Words. Keep in mind
that because of Covid 19, no fans were allowed at Churchill Downs this year, so
there wasn’t the usual loud crowd noise. Before the race, Thousand Words
reared in the walking ring, fell down, and had to be scratched. After the race,
Authentic, the race winner, acted up in the winner’s circle and knocked
Baffert off his feet.
You can read a lot more about the Baffert horse deaths by
doing an online search. Jane Allin has a lot of detailed information in her blog.
Search on Deadly To Horses – The Baffert Effect – Part I and Part II. The
name of the blog is, Tuesday’s Horse.
But, the CHRB’s apparent compliance doesn’t stop there.
After Justify won the 2018 Santa Anita Derby, the 3yo tested positive for a
banned substance. The CHRB hid the drug positive from the public for months.
Justify went on to win the Triple Crown and was retired after 6 races, then sold
to syndication for $60 million. You know the old saying, follow the money.
After the Triple Crown was over, the CHRB came out with the
news that Justify had tested positive prior to the Kentucky Derby. If they had
told the public about the positive when they should have, Justify would not have
qualified for the Kentucky Derby.
A New York Times article about the Justify situation can be
found on the internet by searching “Justify Failed A Drug Test Before Winning
The Triple Crown” by Joe Drape, which was published on September 11, 2019.
The owners of the horse that finished 2nd behind
Justify in the Santa Anita Derby have a lawsuit pending against the CHRB,
claiming that they hid the Justify drug positive. Their horse is Bolt d’Oro.
The CHRB did hide the drug positive, so in my opinion, the lawsuit appears to
have merit. This week, more than two years after the race in question, the CHRB
announced that they’re reviewing the race to see if Justify should be
disqualified. You can do internet searches and read more details about these
situations. If the CHRB does what they normally do with Baffert’s drug
positives, they won’t do anything. But maybe the pressure is building for them
to stop sweeping things under the rug. It seems unusual that they’re finally
reviewing the case two and a half years after the race was run.
This spring at the Oaklawn meet, two of Baffert’s star
three year olds tested positive for lidocaine, a drug that reportedly numbs a
horse’s limbs. In other words, it alleviates pain. Charlatan, a 3yo colt, won
the GR1 Arkansas Derby but failed his drug test and had to forfeit the $300,000
purse. Baffert received a 15 day suspension. Charlatan has since been sidelined
with an ankle injury, no great surprise there.
Gamine, a 3yo filly, also tested positive on May 2. Gamine
then raced at
Belmont
on June 29 and won the Acorn stakes by almost 19 lengths in a sensational
performance setting a track record for the mile in 1:32.55. Baffert’s horses
often run mind-boggling races like that. I’ve been handicapping and watching
races for a long time and I can tell you that thoroughbred horses that set a
fast pace, or even sit close to a fast pace, slow down in the final quarter.
Every handicapper knows that. The only horse that didn’t slow down after
setting a fast pace was Secretariat, who was a total freak, a once in a lifetime
monster. Baffert’s horses, however, often find that extra gear. They do things
that seem too good to be true, reminiscent of athletes like Mark McGwire or
Lance Armstrong.
Baffert also had another top colt earlier in the year,
Nadal. He also won a division of the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn this spring. But
Nadal, who won his first four starts, broke down during a workout at Santa Anita
and has been retired.
Now I’m sure some of you are wondering how Bob Baffert
gets away with all this. Basically, it’s because the racing industry protects
him and lets him get away with it. Baffert is in the Hall of Fame and comes
across as an affable guy on TV.
Baffert comes up with excuses for these drug violations,
but based on his overall record of horse deaths and drug infractions, it’s
fair to say that we should be skeptical. After his two 3yo’s tested positive
for lidocaine at Oaklawn this spring, Baffert’s attorney said that the
lidocaine came from a member of the trainer’s staff who was wearing a
lidocaine patch for this back pain. That is the most preposterous excuse for a
drug positive that I’ve ever heard. It’s such a laughable and obvious lie
that it’s an insult to our intelligence. Yet, the judges at Oaklawn fell for
it. Baffert’s 15 day suspension for using a pain numbing drug on two of his
horses was a slap on the wrist, especially when you consider his overall record
of drug violations.
For some
reason, the racing industry refuses to send this guy a message. My guess is that
they think that a long suspension would be a black eye for the sport, but what
about the integrity of the sport? What about the owners, trainers, and bettors
that got cheated? This is one of the reasons why the sport needs the Horseracing
Integrity and Safety Act, which will hopefully create more uniform and severe
penalties for repeat drug violations.
Another reason why Baffert gets away with this stuff is
that the CHRB appears to cover up for him. To me, it seems like corruption.
It’s certainly suspicious. Baffert and his friends at the CHRB always come up
with some lame excuse for the drug violations, like, “the feed was tainted
with drugs”. Funny how so many other very successful trainers who have trained
over 10,000 starters have never had that “tainted feed” problem that plagues
the Baffert barn. Maybe Bob Baffert should buy his feed from Graham Motion.
Drug violations aren’t new for Baffert. People may not
remember this, but back in 2001, thoroughbred racing was developing a black eye
because many trainers were getting drug positives. You can read an article
online that was published in The Washington Post, Drug Rules Test Racing
Trainers. In that article, Tim Smith, commissioner and chief executive of the
National Thoroughbred Racing Association said that he hoped the industry would
adapt uniform drug testing and guidelines. Here it is, 19 years later, and still
no industry standards for drug testing. That’s why the Senate is going ahead
with the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Act.
In 2001, one of Baffert’s horses tested positive for
Morphine. Smith also said this, “There was a perception that the most visible
trainer in the sport (Baffert), apparently administered a substance to affect
the outcome of a race.”
Take a guess what Baffert’s excuse for the Morphine
positive was. You guessed it, “tainted feed.”