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Pandy's NFL Best Bets and NFL analysis, 2020 season

 

2020 record: 6-5 (plus $25.00)
Teasers: 18-11 (plus $156.00)
Parlays: 3-8 (-$201.00)
Overall: minus $20.00
Odds-lines from Bookmaker or Sugarhouse

Super Bowl: Chiefs at Buccaneeers, Pandy's Pick, the Chiefs - 3, $30.00, the Chiefs on the money line, $30.00. 

This looks like a good match up with two talented offenses lead by two great quarterbacks. Both teams have respectable defenses, but these are teams that got to where they are by scoring a lot of points. Tampa Bay's defense is strong up front with a good D-line and quick linebackers. The Buccaneers have the number 1 rushing defense in the NFL. I doubt that we're going to see the Chiefs try to run the ball that often. The Chiefs defense rely on blitzing to get pressure. Both teams can ball hawk and I expect that there will be few interceptions in this game, and that could be critical. 

The Chiefs will go without two of the starting offensive linemen, which is another reason why they won't be running the football. But, I think the Chiefs still have a clear edge in certain ways. For one, the Chiefs have a great coaching staff. Head coach Andy Reid is without a doubt one of the best head coaches in NFL history. His teams are always well prepared, especially when they have two weeks to prepare. And the Chiefs defensive coach, Steve Spagnuolo, is one of the best. He was the defensive coach of one of the Giants teams that upset the Patriots in the Super Bowl. Both teams have speedy players on both sides of the ball, but the Chiefs are a particularly fast team. Their quarterback, Patrick Mahomes, has the best Touchdown to Interception ratio in NFL history, and, the best passer rating in NFL history. He's an accurate passer who can also move very well. He's injured but two weeks off will help his injured toe. Mahomes has many targets that he can throw to. And there's a possibility that wide receiver Sammy Watkins, another player with good speed, could be back in the line up for the Super Bowl. If Watkins plays, even if they don't throw to him that often, that makes it tougher to figure out which receiver to double team. 

The Chiefs also have one of the best field goal kickers in the NFL, and they're very good on special teams. They lost one of their best offensive linemen to an Achilles injury in last week's game, but they have a lot of depth. The over under is 57.5. Both of these teams have outstanding receivers and accurate passers. Right now there's a chance of thunderstorms on Sunday but the prediction is for earlier in the day. 

The Chiefs almost blew out the Buccaneers in their lone match up this season but I'm not sure that means much for this game. The Buccaneers are certainly capable of beating anyone on any given day, they have a well-balanced team and they can rush the quarterback. For the Chiefs to win, they have to attack the secondary with mid to long range passes. The Buccaneers will most likely mix it up more, run the ball more, and Brady will try to spread the ball around to his talented receivers. One of the big keys is the pass rush. The Chiefs will most likely blitz pretty often to try and pressure Brady, and that's always been the best way to try and mitigate his brilliance. But the Buccaneers should have good pass pressure from their front four, especially with the injuries to the Chiefs offensive line. Mahomes is quick and agile, even with a bad toe, and how he performs out of the pocket could be a big factor in this game. 

Conference Sunday: Great match-ups today. All four of these teams have potent offenses and respectable defenses. The Buccaneers and Packers met in week six and Tampa's quick linebacking team played a great game and the Buccaneers beat the Packers pretty easily. However, the Packers offensive line has been playing great lately and their offense is hot. The Packers scored 32 points against the top defense in the NFL last week and 35 points against the quality Bears defense two weeks ago. The Packers offense averaged 31.8 points during the season, making them the top scoring team in the NFL. Tampa Bay is a solid team, though, and it would not surprise me if they won. 

In the later game, the Chiefs are supposed to get their running back, Edwards-Helaire, back today, and wide receiver Sammy Watkins might also play. This could be a close game but the Chiefs have so many ways to beat you, I prefer them. 

However, I only made one bet, a two-team 7 point teaser, in the Buccaneers/Packers game over 45 points, and in the Bills/Chiefs game, Chiefs +4, $23.00 to win $19.00. (won)

Divisional weekend: Packers, Ravens, Chiefs money line parlay, $16.00 to win $42.00. (lost)

Three way 10 point teaser, Ravens vs Bills, Ravens +12.5...Rams vs Packers, under 55.5...Buccaneers vs Saints, over 41.5, $12.00 to win $10.00. (lost)

Wildcard weekend: Colts at Bills, Pandy's Pick, Bills -6.5, $20.00. The Bills offense is ranked 2nd in the NFL and they've been hot, but the defense has been playing well the last six games. The Colts are not pushovers but the Bills are just so hot right now. (lost)

Buccaneers at Washington, Buccaneers -8.5, $20.00. Washington's veteran QB Alex Smith did not look healthy last week, he could barely run, and he may not be able to play the entire game. Washington's offense is ranked 30th. Washington has a top tier defense, ranked 2nd in the NFL, but the Buccaneers have good weapons on offensive, even if star receiver Mike Evans doesn't play. Both of these teams have a good pass rush but future HOF QB Tom Brady knows how to use quick short throws to counter a good pass rush better than anyone. And it's not like the Buccaneers have a bad defense, they are 6th ranked overall. (lost)

Ravens at Titans, Pandy's Pick, Ravens -3, $20.00. Both teams have potent running attacks. The Ravens lead the lead in rushing, mainly because QB Lamar Jackson rushed for over 1,000 yards. Jackson is the best running QB in NFL history. The Titans have Derick Henry, a powerful and punishing runner. The Titans have the passing edge as QB Ryan Tannehill has been hot all year and he only has 7 interceptions. The Ravens offense struggled at times this year but they come into this game on a hot streak, averaging 37 points a game over the last five games, all wins. But perhaps the story is the Ravens defense, which is clearly the better defense in this game. The Titans gave up almost 1,000 yards more than the Ravens this year, they allowed 36 touchdowns compared to the Ravens 22 touchdowns. And, the Ravens had 39 QB sacks this year, compared to 19 for the Titans. (won)

Two team parlay, Bills -6.5, Steelers -6, $50.00 to win $93.00. (lost)

Two Team Money Line parlay, Buccaneers at Washington and Bears at Saints, Buccaneers and Saints $60.00 to win $31.00. (won)

Three team money line parlay, Buccaneers, Saints, Bills (Colts at Bills), $24.00 to win $25.00. (won)

Three team 10 point teaser, Bills +3.5...Buccaneers +1.5...Saints even, $41.00 to win $30.00. (won)

Three team 7 point teaser, Steelers +1...Buccaneers -1.5...Bills +0.5, $20.00 to win $24.00. (lost)

Three team 10 point teaser, Bills/Colts over 41.5...Rams/Seahawks under 52...Ravens/Titans over 44.5, $22.00 to win $20.00. (lost)

Week 17: My NFL parlays have been horrendous this year but I'm trying another one, Browns will be playing a Steelers team that doesn't have any motivation, the Colts face the worst team in the NFL, and Washington need to beat the Eagles, and they have a good defense, plus Alex Smith has been announced as the starting QB. Plus, the Eagles will be without many players, $37.00 to win $40.00, Browns, Colts, Washington money line parlay. (won)

I'm going to try four teasers in the last regular season week. Hopefully I won't wipe out my teaser profit. 

Three team 10 point teaser, Jets +13...Browns -1...Colts -4, $35.00 to win $25. (loss)

Three team 10 point teaser, Seahawks +3.5...Washington +6...Titans/Texans over 45, $30.00 to win $21. (won)

Three team 10 point teaser, Giants +11.5...Ravens -3.5...Dolphins +11, $20.00 to win $14.00. (loss)

Three team 10 point teaser, Colts -4...Washington +6...Seahawks +3.5, $22.00 to win $15.00. (won)

Week 16: Bengals at the Texans, Pandy's Pick, Texans -7, $50.00 to win $45.00. The Bengals defense played well when they upset the Steelers last week, but the Steelers offense has been in a funk the past three games. The Bengals, back on a short week after playing Monday night, are really missing their injured starting QB, Burrow, who is a promising player. They could struggle offensively again as they're 30th in both yards and points scored. Even though the Texans only have 4 wins, they've played some good teams tough. (loss)

Three team 10 point teaser...Packers +7...Colts +11.5...Rams +11, $35.00 to win $25.00. (won)

Money line parlay, Bears and Texans, $33.00 to win $20.00. (loss)

Week 15: Three team 10 point teaser, Colts +3...Titans +1...Dolphins +8.5, $44.00 to win $37.00. (won)

Week 14: Cardinals at Giants, Pandy's Pick, Giants +3, $33.00 to win $30.00. The Giants defense has been getting better and better in all facets of the game. They've been stopping the run, pressuring quarterbacks. Offensively, although the Giants still have a lot to prove, the Giants offensive line has played exceptionally well during their four game winning streak. 

Week 12: Saints at Broncos, Pandy's Pick, Saints -15.5, $44.00 to win $40.00. This is a tough break for the Broncos who have to sit all of their regular quarterbacks due to Covid tests. This game probably should have been moved to another day. This is a lot of points to lay in the NFL but the Saints are a good team and it's hard to imagine that the Broncos can stay close with someone playing QB who is not a regular quarterback. (won)

Titans at Colts, Pandy's Pick, Titans +3, $22.00 to win $20.00. These two teams are pretty closely matched but the Titans had their starting punter out when they played last time and it hurt them. Today, the Colts have several players that landed on the injury lists including their starting center and two good defensive players. This is a good divisional match up and should be close. (won)

Raiders at Falcons, Pandy's Pick, Raiders -3, $35.00 to win $30.00. It looks like the inconsistent Falcons will be without starters Todd Gurley and Julio Jones. The Raiders, although inconsistent defensively, can put up points and the Falcons defense gives up a lot of yards. (loss)

Three team 10 point teaser, Dolphins at Jets, Jets +17...Titans at Colts, Titans +13...Raiders at Falcons, Raiders +7, $40.00 to win $30.00. (loss)

Money line parlay, Raiders, Giants, Saints, Seahawks, Steelers, $20.00 to win $57.00. (loss)

Money line parlay, Raiders, Seahawks, Saints, $16.00 to win $21.00. (loss)

11: Three team money line parlay, Steelers at Jaguars, Steelers to win...Cowboys at Vikings, Vikings to win...Chiefs at Raiders, Chiefs to win, $70.00 to win $74.00. (loss)

Two team 6.5 point Round Robin, Patriots at Texans, Patriots +4.5...Titans at Ravens, Ravens +0.5, $43.00 to win $40.00. (loss)

Week 10: Early pick - Three team money line parlay Jaguars at Packers, Packers...49ers at Saints, Saints...Ravens at Patriots, Ravens, $34.00 to win $25.00. (loss)

Bills at Cardinals, Pandy's Pick, Cardinals - 2.5, $33.00 to win $30.00. These teams seem pretty evenly matched but the Bills have four defensive players out for this game due to Covid including top cornerback Josh Norman, plus another good cornerback. Buffalo comes off back to back wins over the Patriots and the Seahawks and could be due for a letdown. (loss)

Three team 10 point teaser, Cardindals/Bills over 45.5...Rams/Seahawks, Rams +7.5...Saints/49ers, Saints +0.5, $36.00 to win $34.00. (won)

Three team 10 point teaser, Chargers at Dolphins, Chargers +11.5...Seahawks at Rams, Rams +7.5...Ravens at Patriots, Ravens +3, $25.00 to win $20.00. 

Week 9: Packers at 49ers, Pandy's Pick, Packers -7.5, $44.00 to win $40.00. The 49ers defense is playing well but on offense they are once again hit by serious injuries to their starting quarterback, running backs, and their top receiver. (won)

Three team 10 point teaser, Chiefs even, Chargers +11, Patriots +0.5, $60.00 to win $42.00. (won)

Week 8: Three game money line parlay, Chiefs, Packers, Eagles, $58.00 to win $40.00. (loss)

Three team 7 point teaser, 49ers at Seahawks, 49ers +10...Cowboys at Eagles, Eagles -3.5...Jets at Chiefs, Chiefs -13, $25.00 to win $30.00. (won)

Three team 10 point teaser, Packers +3.5...49ers +13...Eagles -1, $36.00 to win $30.00. (loss)

Week 7: Browns at Bengals, Pandy's Pick, Browns -3, $30.00. Cleveland is leading the NFL in rushing and the Bengals weren't able to stop them when the Browns beat them 35-30 earlier in the season. The Browns should also be able to pressure the Bengals rookie quarterback. (push)

3 team, 6 point teaser, Panthers at Saints, Panthers +12.5...Lions at Falcons, Lions +7.5...Steelers at Titans, Steelers +7, $23.00 to win $23.00 to win $37.00. (won)

3 team 10 point teaser, Panthers +16.5...Lions +11.5...Steelers +11, $40.00 to win $30.00. (won)

Week 6: Money line parlay, Vikings and Chiefs $26 to win $30.00. Money line parlay Chiefs and Lions $20 to win $26.00. Two team 6 point teaser, Panthers +5.5 and Packers +5.5, $21.00 to win $20.00. Three team 10 point teaser, Browns +13.5, Bengals +17.5, and Packers +9, $40.00 to win $33.00. 

Week 5: Injuries and the virus rescheduling is making handicapping the NFL tricky so I'm playing cautiously, trying to win, as always. Three team 10 point teaser, Vegas at Chiefs, Chiefs -0.5...Colts at Browns, Browns +9...Rams at Washington, Rams +3, $36.00 to win $30.00. (loss)

Two team 6 point teaser, Rams -6 and Browns +5.5, $36.00 to win $30.00. (win)

Week 4: Three team money line parlay, Jets, Ravens, Saints, $25.00 to win $50.00. (loss)

Three team 10 point teaser: Chargers at Buccaneers, Chargers +17.5...Giants at Rams, Rams -3.5...Jaguars at Bencals, Jaguars +12, $65.00 to win $51.00. (won)

Week 3: Early pick, Dolphins at Jacksonville, Pandy's Pick, Jaguars -3, $33.00 to win $30.00. (loss)

Three team 10 point teaser, Rams at Bills, Rams +11.5...49ers at Giants, Giants +13.5...Cowboys at Seahawks, Cowboys +15, $60.00 to win $50.00. (loss)

Week 2: Patriots at Seahawks, Pandy's Pick, Seahawks -4, $32.00 to win $30.00. The Seahawks seem to have a good balance on both offense and defense. Both teams have good defensive talent. But the Seahawks have more weapons on offense and a QB who's in the prime of his career. (won)

Three team 10 point teaser, Rams +11.5 vs Eagles...Steelers +3.5 vs Broncos...Chiefs +1.5 vs Chargers, $36.00 to win $30.00. (won)

Three team 10 point teaser, Rams +11.5...Steelers +3.5...Giants at Bears, Giants +15.5, $36.00 to win $30.00. (won)

Week 1: Jets at Bills, Pandy's Pick, Bills -6, $60.00. I'll be rooting for the Jets but this line seems like good value to back the Bills, who had a solid defense last year and made progress on offense. The Jets lost their star safety in the off season and another top defensive player opted out of the season. I expect to see some offensive rust for some teams in week 1, so this could be a low scoring game.  (won)

3 team 10 point teaser, Bears +12.5...Packers +12.5...Saints +6.5, $50 to win $41.00 (won)

 

 

 

Pandy's NFL Best Bets and NFL analysis, 2019 season

 

 

Super Bowl: Chiefs vs 49ers, Pandy's Pick, 49ers +1, $21.00 to win $20.00. I'm often pretty confident in my Super Bowl pick, and I've made some of my Best Bets in the SB. I've been picking the Super Bowl on my website for 18 years and I am 12-6 against the spread and I hit the last two years. But my confidence level isn't high this year because these teams are closely matched and it could be that the team that gets a few lucky breaks wins the game. The line has dropped from 1.5 to 1, not a great deal on a game that figures to be very close. I loved the Niners last week and made a few bets that were bigger than I normally bet, so that helped my bottom line. This could be a great Super Bowl. During the season I thought there were four top teams, Saints, Ravens, Niners and Chiefs and I think it's fair to say that these were the two best teams in the NFL. The Chiefs defense played better as the year went on, and the Niners defense is capable of shutting teams down. That being said, both of these teams can score. Everyone knows that the Chiefs have an explosive offense. But, the 49ers scored more points than the Chiefs during the regular season (only the Ravens scored more points). The 49ers also had more yards than the Chiefs. So, it's not like the 49ers have a bad offense, quite the contrary. Both of these young quarterbacks have amazing records as starters. Jimmy Garoppolo has started 26 games in his NFL career and has 21 wins. Mahomes has started 31 games in his NFL career and has 24 wins. I don't think there's any question that Mahomes is more talented, he's a superstar and appears to be the best quarterback in the NFL. (lost)

Although the 49ers are a great running team I expect them to throw the ball early in this game. The reason being, the Chiefs are a very well coached team. I figured that they would do a good job against the Titans potent running game, because the Chiefs had everyone in to stop the run. The 49ers are also very well coached and the best way to get those linebackers to move back is to throw the ball early. The 49ers have a solid passing attack. If Jimmy G can hit some good passes early, that could open up the run game. The 49ers run blockers, including their backs and receivers, all do a fantastic job of run blocking. The Chiefs run defense was not that good overall during the regular season. I also expect that the 49ers will be in a defense that almost tries to force the Chiefs to run, but the Chiefs running attack has not been that good this year. 

Both of these teams have some fast players, the Chiefs on offense, where they have two fast wide receivers, and the 49ers on defense, where they have several fast defensive players including very quick pass rushers. So it's an interesting match up. I expect that they'll pressure Mahomes all day, but, obviously he's quick enough to make some plays with his legs, and, to throw on the run. 

Conference Sunday: (early pick) Packers at 49ers, Pandy's Pick, 49ers -7, $98.00 to win $91.00. The Vikings looked tough beating a very talented Saints team in New Orleans, then was no match at all for the powerful San Francisco 49ers. I'm putting a bet in early to lock in -7. The 49ers are a great team, they have the number 1 ranked pass defense, and on offense, they're 4th overall in total yards, 2nd in rushing, and 2nd in points scored per game. (won)

I bet the Niners early when the line is -7. Adding a teaser -

Two team 7 point teaser, Chiefs even, Niners - 0.5, $26.00 to win $20.00.  (won)

Divisional Weekend: The oddsmakers seemed to get the lines right on the mark this weekend, so I'm not excited about straight plays, although I did bet the Ravens. My feeling is that the favorites are all clearly the best teams, so I bet a money line parlay with them, and teased the Chiefs and Ravens down 6 points. Some notes, Saturday, the 49ers defense is healthy and they have an outstanding secondary. Their offense has improved and they can run the ball. The Vikings certainly have a solid defense and a good running game, so this is a good match up. But, overall, I think the 49ers are the better team and a bit healthier overall, but I don't want to lay the 7 points because this could be a close game. In the late game Saturday, the Titans offensive line and was amazing last week, and, obviously Derrick Henry is an elite running back. But, the Ravens defense is tough and they have a good secondary. I don't think the Titans can beat the Ravens just by running, as they did against the Patriots. The Patriots offense is weak, the Ravens offense is explosive. To me, the Ravens make the most sense as a straight play this weekend. They have a well rounded team and a quarterback who is an explosive runner, and Jackson has done well passing this year as well. On Sunday, the Chiefs are healthy and their defense has been playing really well. We know what they can do offensively. 9.5 points is a lot of points, however, against a Houston team that played a great game to beat a top team (Saints) last week. Chiefs coach Andy Reid is very good off a bye and he'll have the Chiefs ready to come out strong from the outset. As for the Seattle vs Green Bay, Seattle has played extremely well on the road this year, the best of any team in the NFL. But they have serious injury problems. I bet the Seahawks against the Eagles last week, but the Eagles had a ton of injuries. Green Bay is healthy and although they played a pretty soft schedule, they've gotten the job done and they have an edge at home here, especially since the weather will be typically cold. 

Titans at Ravens, Pandy's Pick, Ravens -10, $22.00 to win $20.00. (lost)

Two team 6 point teaser, Chiefs - 3.5 and Ravens -4, $22.00 to win $20.00. (lost)

Money line parlay, Chiefs, Ravens, 49ers, Packers, $22.00 to win $40.00. (lost)

Wild Card Weekend: Bills at Texans, Pandy's Pick, Texans -2.5. This is an interesting match up. Both teams are 10-6. The Bills are more of a defensive team, the Texans, just the opposite. My main reason for going with the Texans is the schedules both teams played this year. The Bills were solid, for sure, but they had an easy schedule. Buffalo played five games against teams that made the playoffs. They lost four of those games including two to the Patriots, and they lost to the Eagles and the Ravens. The only playoff team they beat was the Titans, but that was in week 5, before the Titans got hot with Ryan Tannehill at quarterback. The Texans played six games against playoff teams and they won three of them, beating the Chiefs 31-24, the Patriots 28-22, and they also beat the Titans. In the last game of the season they lost to the Titans but they weren't trying to win that game because they had already locked up the wild card and they rested players. The also played very well against the Saints, losing 30-28. In this game, I expect that their defense will play well enough against the Bills, who are not exactly an offensive juggernut. Offensively, the Texans have enough talent to move the ball. Their quarterback Deshaun Watson tossed 3 TDs and completed 72% of his passes against the tough Patriots secondary when the Texans scored 28 points, and Watson also ran for 7 touchdowns this year. $22.00 to win $20.00. (won)

Seahawks at Eagles, Pandy's pick, Seahawks - 1.5. Both teams have lost players from injuries, and, quite frankly, the Seahawks were a better team in the first three months of the season than they are now. But the Eagles have so many key injuries on offense, receivers, backs, offensive linemen, it's bad. After losing to the Dolphins on Dec. 1, the Eagles won their last four games to salvage a wild card spot. But, they beat the Giants twice, the Redskins, and the Cowboys. The Seahawks played some good games against top teams, beating the 49ers, and then playing them very close last week. They also beat the Eagles and the Vikings. The Eagles beat the Packers and the Bills. The Eagles have the better defense, but the Seahawks should have a big edge on offense here and they have played well on the road. $22.00 to win $20.00. (won)

Three team 10 point teaser, Titans +14.5...Saints +2...Seahawks +8.5, $24.00 to win $20.00. (lost)

Money line parlay, Texans, Saints, Seahawks, $19.00 to win $52.00. (lost)

 

Week 17: 3 team 10 point teaser, Jets +10...Chiefs even...Saints -4, $36.00 to win $30.00. (won)

Week 16: 2 team 6 point teaser, Ravens -4 over Browns and Chiefs even over Bears, $33.00 to win $30.00. (won)

Week 15: Rams at Cowboys, Pandy's Pick, Rams -1. The Rams defense is back in form and facing a Dallas offense that has been struggling, $22.00 to win $20.00. (loss)

Seahawks at Panthers, Pandy's Pick, Seahawks -6. The Panthers season has gone off the rails and Seattle is still one of the better teams in the NFL, $22.00 to win $20.00. (push)

3 team 10 point teaser, Seahawks +4...49ers even...Rams +9, $33.00 to win $30.00. (win)

3 team 10 point teaser, Ravens -4.5...Patriots even...Saints +1, $55.00 to win $45.00. (loss)

3 team money line parlay, Patriots, 49ers, Chiefs, $50.00 to win $33.00. (loss)

Week 14: Ravens at Bills, Pandy's Pick, Ravens -6. The Ravens are 10-2, and Bills are 9-3, but if you compare the schedules these two teams have had, the Ravens has faced, and beaten, some of the best teams in the NFL including the 49ers, Texans, Seahawks, Patriots. And they've beaten some good teams handily. They beat the Rams 45-6, they beat the Seahawks 30-16, they beat the Texans 41-7, and they scored 37 points against the Patriots highly ranked defense beating them handily as well. The Bills are a solid team but they've only beaten one team with a winning record, the Titans. They beat weak teams like the Dolphins (twice), the Bengals, the Redskins, so four of their wins were against the three worst teams in the NFL. $33.00 to win $30.00. (won)

Money line parlay, Texans, Ravens, Vikings, $22.00 to win $20.00. (loss)

Three team 10 point teaser, Texans +1...49ers +12...Chiefs +13, $60.00 to win $50.00. (loss)

Week 13: Bears at Lions, Pandy's Pick, Bears -5.5. The line has gone up steadily as the Lions are down to their third string QB, undrafted player who played for Purdue, David Blough. Blough has never played in the NFL. He just started practicing with the first team on Tuesday. This is a tough spot for him against a good defense.  The Lions also have three defensive linemen who have been nursing injuries. Either way, the Lions defense has not played well and the Bears defense is still one of the better units in the NFL. The Bears are also showing improvement after losing three straight games, they've won two in a row. $44.00 to win $40.00. (loss)

Two team 6 point teaser, Bears even and Saints minus 0.5, $22.00 to win $20.00. (won)

Week 12: Buccaneers at Falcons, Pandy's Pick, Falcons -3.5. Both of these teams have 3-7 records but the Falcons reworked some things during their bye week and came back with two big upset wins on the road against two good teams, including a beat down of the Saints. Tampa Bay has lost 5 of their last 6 games. Both teams have strong passing attacks but Tampa Bay's pass defense has been leaky. Tampa Bay quarterback Jameis Winston has been a turnover machine and the Falcons recorded 11 sacks in their last two games. $32.00 to win $30.00. (loss)

3 team 10 point teaser, Falcons +6.5...Cowboys +15...Seahawks +11.5, $24.00 to win $20.00 (loss)

3 team 10 point teaser, Steelers/Bengals under 47.5...Seahawks +11.5...Ravens +7, $24.00 to win $20.00 (won)

Week 11: Cowboys at Lions, Pandy's Pick, Cowboys -7. I went against the Lions last week and won and I'm going to try them again. Dallas has not been consistent but they are highly ranked both offensively and defensively while the Lions defense has been bad. The Lions strength is their passing game but a lot of that has to do with gun-slinger QB Matthew Stafford, who is out again today. $22.00 to win $20.00. (won)

3 team 10 point teaser, Bills/Dolphins under 51...Cardinals +20...Raiders -0.5, $24.00 to win $20.00 (loss)

3 team 10 point teaser, Vikings - 0.5...Raiders -0.5...Bears/Rams under 50, $24.00 to win $20.00 (won)

3 team 10 point teaser, Jaguars +12.5...Jets +12.5...Texans/Ravens over 41.5, $24.00 to win $20.00 (loss)

Week 10: Chiefs at Titans, Pandy's Pick, Chiefs -6, $22.00 to win $20.00. The Chiefs are going to start Mahomes today but even without him they could be too much for the Titans, who don't have enough offensive fire power to come back if the Chiefs start out strong. (loss)

Lions at Bears, Pandy's Pick, Bears -6.5, $66.00 to win $60.00.  Matthew Stafford, one of the most talented passers in the NFL, is out and Jeff Driskel takes over and he does not have good scouting reports, and has only been with the team for less than two months. This is a tough spot for Driskel against a good defense. Detroit's defense gives up a lot of yards and that should help the Bears offense, which has been terrible. (won)

3 team 10 point teaser, Chargers +9...Ravens even...Bills +13, $36.00 to win $30.00. (won)

Week 9: Packers at Chargers, Pandy's Pick, Packers -4. I should have bet this earlier in the week when the line was lower but I was busy with Breeders Cup and Meadowlands handicapping. Not much of an analysis here, the Chargers have under performed all year and the Packers and Aaron Rogers are hot, $33.00 to win $30.00. (loss)

3 team 10 point teaser, Colts +11...Packers +6...Ravens +14, $36.00 to win $30.00. (loss)

3 team 10 point teaser, Titans/Panthers under 52...Colts/Steelers under 50.5...Lions/Raiders over 41, $24.00 to win $20.00 (won)

Week 8: Seahawks at Falcons, Pandy's Pick, Seahawks -7, $22.00 to win $20.00. The Falcons defense is playing poorly and they may not have their starting quarterback here. Seattle's quarterback Russell Wilson leads the 6th best offense (yards gain) in the league and he's tough even when he gets pressure, but the Falcons haven't been able to mount a pass rush. (push)

3 team 10 point teaser, Giants +16.5...Buccaneers + 12.5...Panthers +15.5, $36.00 to win $30.00. (loss)

3 team 10 point teaser, Chargers/Bears under 51...Panthers/49ers under 51.5...Packers/Chiefs over 37.5, $24.00 to win $20.00. (loss)

Week 7: Jaguars at Bengals, Pandy's Pick, Jaguars -4.5. This line has gone up and I should have bet it earlier in the week. The key to the game is the injuries, the Bengals are missing both starting cornerbacks and they've already been giving up a ton of yards. $22.00 to win $20.00. (won)

Rams at Falcons, Pandy's Pick, Rams -3. The Falcons defense has completely fallen apart this year. They gave up 87 points in their last two games. The Rams are still in the fight and they need a win. $23.00 to win $20.00. (won)

3 team 10 point teaser, Saints +14...Raiders +15...Eagles +13, $36.00 to win $30.00. (loss)

3 team 10 point teaser, Texans +11.5...Raiders +15...49ers even, $24.00 to win $20.00. (loss)

Week 6: Saints at Jaguars, Pandy's Pick, Saints +3. I think the Saints are the best team in the NFL right now so I have to take them getting points, even though they're tougher at home. They did beat the Seahawks in Seattle, so it's not like they can't win a road game. The Saints are a well rounded team. The Jaguars offense is vastly improved this year but their defense is not as stout and the Saints should be able to run the ball effectively, $33.00 to win $30.00. (won)

3 team 10 point teaser, Saints +13...Eagles +13.5...Lions +13.5, $36.00 to win $30.00. (loss)

Week 5: Vikings at Giants, Pandy's Pick, Vikings -5. The Giants offense has been clicking with rookie Daniel Jones at QB, but they face a tough, physical defense here. The Vikings offensive line is also one of the best at run blocking so they can control the clock as well. $33.00 to win $30.00 (won)

Bears vs Raiders (in London), Pandy's Pick, Bears -5.5. The Bears offense has been lousy but their defense is suffocating and the Raiders haven't shown that they have the offensive speed to overcome this type of defense. I'll take the Bears in a low scoring game, $24.00 to win $20.00. (loss)

Falcons at Texans, Pandy's Pick: Texans -4. The Falcons are not showing the offensive speed that they have in the past and their running game is below par this year. Quarterback Matt Ryan has already thrown six interceptions and appears to be past his prime. The Texans still bring a lot of pressure and will be chasing veteran Matt Ryan down all day, $24.00 to win $20.00. (won)

3 team 10 point teaser, Rams +11.5...Patriots -5...Saints +7, $36.00 to win $30.00 (won)

3 team 10 point teaser, Vikings +4.5...Texans +6...Cowboys +7, $24.00 to win $20.00. (loss)

3 team 10 point teaser, Bears/Raiders under 50...Bills/Titans under 49...Packers/Cowboys under 57, $12.00 to win $10.00. (loss)

Week 4: 3 team 10 point teaser, Panthers +14.5...Browns +17...Rams +1, $36.00 to win $30.00. (won)

3 team 10 point teaser, Patriots/Bills under 51.5...Chiefs/Lions over 44...Cowboys/Saints over 37.5, $24.00 to win $20.00 (loss)

3 team 10 point teaser, Panthers +15 (line changed)...Browns +17...Jaguars +12.5, $24.00 to win $20.00. (won)

Week 3: Lions at Eagles, Pandy's Pick, Lions +6. The Lions have been competitive and the Eagles have several good players out with injuries, including their two best receivers, $33.00 to win $30.00. (won)

Rams at Browns, Pandy's Pick, Rams -3. The Browns have a good pass rush but I think the secondary can be suspect at this point. The Browns offense seems out of sync so far and they face a solid defense here. The Rams are a well coached team with a lot of talent, $33.00 to win $30.00. (won)

Saints at Seawhawks, Pandy's Pick, Saints +4.5. Teddy Bridgewater needed his last. No one can replace Drew Brees but Bridgewater should be better this week as he faces a secondary that seems to have issues; he's a good athlete who has a good team to work with here. The Saints defense has played well and does very well against the run, $33.00 to win $30.00 (won)

10 point 3 team teaser, Ravens/Chiefs over 42...Texans/Chargers over 38.5...Bears/Redskins under 51, $36.00 to win $30.00. (won)

10 point 3 team teaser, Bengals +16...Falcons + 11.5...Saints +14.5, $36.00 to win $30.00. (won)

10 point 3 team teaser, Lions +16...Bengals +16...Rams +7, $24.00 to win $20.00 (won)

Week 2: Seahawks at Steelers, Pandy's Pick, Steelers minus 3 1/2, $33.00 to win $30.00. The Steelers played poorly at New England last week but they usually come back with a strong effort off a bad win, especially at home. The Seahawks defense look vulnerable last week and they still have a lot to prove offensively. (loss)

3 team 10 point teaser, Steelers +6.5...Rams +8.5...Broncos +12, $48.00 to win $40.00 (won)

3 team 10 point teaser, Saints/Rams over 42 1/2...Bears/Broncos under 50...Eagles/Falcons over 42 1/2, $24.00 to win $20.00 (loss)

Week 1: Packers at Bears, Pandy's Pick: Bears -3 over Packers. The Bears defense was the best in the league at allowing the least amount of points last year. (loss, Packers defense much improved due to free agent acquistions...should've gone with the obvious under play) Minus $33.00

3 Team 10 point teaser, Eagles + 1...49ers +10...Lions +7.5, $36.00 to win $30.00 (won)

3 Team 10 point teaser, Bears +3...Eagles even...Seahawks + 1/2, $22 to win $27.50 (push)

 

Pandy's NFL Best Bets and NFL analysis, 2018 season

 

2018 record: 15-17 (minus $113.00)
Teasers: 16-12 (plus $219.00)
Parlay: 2-4 (minus $51.00)
Overall: plus $55.00
All odds-lines from bookmaker.eu

SUPER BOWL: Rams vs Patriots, Pandy's Pick, Patriots minus 1.5,  $110.00 to win $100.00. I put my bet in on Sunday as soon as Bookmaker put the line up, and I got minus 1.5, and that's good enough for me. I had a nice profit on my personal NFL bets until the playoffs, now I'm about even and need to win this bet to show a profit. (won)

The two most talented teams, Chiefs and Saints are out, Patriots should roll. Last weekend was really a low point for the NFL. Yes, the games both went into overtime and were exciting, but the NFL has let this problem of blown calls by the officials go on and on for years and Sunday it hit a boiling point. The Saints were obviously robbed of win, and there were some terrible calls in the other game, too. Hopefully this will lead to some sort of replay reviews. There's no reason why the officials in the booths upstairs or in the main offices watching on TV can't stop the game for a quick video replay review when they see what looks like a questionable call or non call on the field. Of course, the Chiefs did what you can't do when playing the Patriots, they made mistakes. They had the game won but one of their defensive lineman lined up off sides. Amazing. 

The Rams are certainly a talented team. They probably have more talent than the Patriots. But as we know, the Patriots usually beat teams that have better personal then them. The Rams have a fine defensive line and a good running attack but the Patriots defense has stiffened, which they always do this time of year, and the Patriots offense is just so well managed. This is a team that only has one superstar, their 41 year old quarterback, who's actually starting to shown signs that he's not as good as he once was (he would have had three interceptions against the Chiefs if not for the off sides). But Brady manages an offense better than anyone in the NFL, he gets rid of the ball quickly, rarely gets sacked, and the Patriots don't make mistakes. I think the Saints would have beaten the Patriots, but the Rams are really going to have to play their best and not make mistakes if they're going to have a chance. 

Conference Championship: Pandy's Pick, Rams at Saints, Saints - 3.5, $53.00 to win $50.00. I think the Saints are good value laying 3.5 at home. They can stop the run, and overall, they have a better defense; and, they're very tough at home. The Rams defense has improved in the second half, but their offense has sputtered. They lost wide receiver Cooper Kupp in November, and that seemed to slow their offense. The Rams defense and running game did step up, however. But quarterback Jared Goff has cooled off, and this stadium is a tough one to play in if you're confidence is down. The Saints have done very well against the run, and their defense was actually as good as any defense in the NFL in the last six weeks of the season. The Saints match up well on offense, they are well balanced and have better receivers than the Rams, and they have an edge on defense, and the home field advantage. (lost)

Patriots at Chiefs, Pandy's Pick, Chiefs -3 over for $25.00. I don't like this as much as the Saints, but I do think the Chiefs have the advantage. The Patriots are virtually unbeatable at home, but the Patriots have lost three straight conference championship games on the road. This year, all five of their losses were on the road, all to non-playoff teams. That's why Belichick makes them work so hard to win during the season, he wants home field advantage throughout the playoffs, because that's how they got to so many Super Bowls. This team is similar to the Patriots the last few years, the defense started out slow and kept getting better. If they're going to win this game, the defense has to play big. The Chiefs have more talent, especially on offense. That's not always enough against the Patriots, because Bill Belichick out-coaches everyone. However, the Chiefs have a future Hall of Fame coach in Andy Reid, and Reid's teams have scored a lot of points against the Patriots over the years. The Chiefs have one of, if the the fastest wide receiver (Hill) in the NFL, and they also have Sammy Watkins, another talented receiver, who's only 25 years old. And they have a quality tight end and a super talented young quarterback. Kansas City also lead the NFL in sacking the QB, and pressuring Brady is the best way to beat him. The Chiefs defense has to play tight and try to stop the short passes and running game of the Patriots. The Patriots wide receivers aren't that fast, so you have to cover Edelman and the running backs and try to stop enough of those short passes. That's why the pass rush is key. If the Chiefs can pressure Brady, the Patriots will have to keep a running back in to block, and that hurts their short passing game. There's a lot of pressure on young QB Pat Mahomes, but if he doesn't make too many mistakes, the Chiefs should win this game. (lost)

Money line parlay: Chiefs and Saints, $30.00 to win $44.00 (lost)

Divisional Round: Three team 10 point teaser, $33.00 to win $27.50, Colts +15.5...Cowboys +17...Chargers +13 (lost)
Two team teaser, $22.00 to win $20.00, Colts/Chiefs over 51...Chargers/Pats under 53 (lost)

Eagles at Saints, Pandy's Pick: Saints -8, $22.00 to win $20.00. In a way, the line looks correct, but I do think there's a chance at the Eagles lose by a couple of TDs. The Saints are made to play in this dome. They can do it all, they can run, pass, and their defense is underrated and solid. They Eagles are a good team but I don't think they're as good as they were at this time last year. They don't have a good running game, and their secondary gives up a lot of yards. The Saints can pressure the QB and stop the run. The Eagles played well last week, beating a tough team in the Bears, but the Bears made a few critical mistakes, especially the TD pass by Foles when the Bears only had 10 men on the field. The Bears blew the game. I don't think the Saints are going to make mistakes like that. (lost)

Cowboys at Rams, Pandy's Pick: Cowboys +7, $22 to win $20.95. The Rams have not been as dominant offensively later in the year, and their run defense has been horrible, giving up an average of over 5 yards a carry. The Cowboys have a solid defense. Offensively, the Cowboys aren't dynamic, but they're solid and they can run the football. (lost)

I am reluctant to bet two of the games, but here's my analysis: Colts at Chiefs. The Chiefs are favored by 5 points. It's snowing. My feeling is, The Chiefs offense is potent, even without Kareen Hunt, who was cut from the team and suspended. However, I do think they'll miss Hunt here. But The Chiefs defense is suspect. The Colts have the best offensive line in the league when it comes to running the ball. Marlon Mack ran for 148 yards against a strong front seven last week, and he also ran well against the Titans defense. The Colts offensive line could be the key to this game. The Colts defense has also played well, but this is a big test because the Chiefs QB Mahomes, is a superstar. 

As for the Chargers at Patriots, The Patriots are favored by four points. The Chargers have more speed and talent, but as we know, the Patriots often beat teams that have more speed and talent. When the Patriots lost receiver Josh Gordon to injury, that hurt. The Chargers have played well on the road this year and if they don't make too many mistakes, they can upset. But, I can't bring myself to take the four points because the Patriots are so much tougher in this stadium. I've hit many bets against the Patriots. I won four Super Bowls betting against the Patriots. But those games were not in Foxboro. I don't know what it is, but they are always so tough to beat in this stadium. 

Wild Card Weekend: Eagles at Bears, Pandy's Pick, Bears -6 for $50.00. I should have bet this earlier when the line was 5.5, but it is what it is. For a couple of months, I've felt that the Bears may be a Super Bowl team. They have the best defense in football and it's a well rounded defense that can rush the passer, cover, and they're ranked 1st against the run and 1st in points allowed, plus they have the best scoring defense with a league leading 27 interceptions. The Eagles are playing well and Nick Foles is a sharp shooter at QB, but he's been putting up these big numbers against defenses that are not in this class. On offense, Chicago has enough talent to score, and they should get good field position because of their defense. The Eagles pass defense is ranked 30th. (lost)

Colts at Texans, Pandy's Pick: Colts +2 for $25.00. The Colts have done a great job of protecting Andrew Luck, who was injured a couple of years ago. The defense is also playing well and has improved steadily. The Texans are a solid team but their pass defense, in the secondary, is ranked 28th, shaky. Their defense is dependent on their front 7, which is one of the best in the NFL. The Colts match up well though because they have a good offensive line. On offense, the Texans QB Deshaun Watson is a great athlete but recent injuries to key players, such as wide receiver Demarious Thomas, may make it tough for him as the Colts might be able to get away with double covering DeAndre Hopkins, who is a great receiver. (won)

Seahawks at Cowboys, Pandy's Pick, Cowboys - 2.5 for $20.00. This seems to me like a tough one to handicap. Seattle beat the Cowboys earlier in the year, but the Cowboys offense was struggling back then. This line has moved, as a lot of money came in on the Cowboys. Dallas has a solid defense, 6th in points allowed, and the offense has come around. The Seahawks do not have a great defense anymore, although they play well in the Red Zone, and they're certainly not a bad defense, but they give up yards. Seattle's offense is built around a very strong running game, the best in the NFL. But I think that Dallas has the defense to win this, particularly because the Seahawks are not a great road team, they're much tougher at home. (lost)

Two team teaser, Bears - 1/2 and Colts + 8, $33.00 to win $30.00. (lost)

Week 17: It gets tricky this time of the year because you don't know who's going to be trying all-out to win once teams lock up playoff spots, which I took into consideration. 

Cowboys at Giants, Pandy's Pick: Giants -5.5, $55.00 to win $50.00. The Cowboys have nothing to play for here, they have already locked up their playoff spot. They may start their starters but in the past they've pulled them early when they don't need to win, and they don't need this game. The Giants will be trying to get Barkley the rookie of the year award. (lost)

Money line parlay, $33.00 to win $75: Giants over Cowboys (Cowboys will rest their starters)...Eagles over Redskins (Eagles still need to win, Redskins banged up)...Ravens over Browns (Ravens defense and running attack control the game)...Steelers over Bengals (Steelers must win to have a shot at Playoffs)...Seahawks over Cardinals (Seahawks try to lock up the 5th seed) (lost)

Three team 10 point teaser, $24.00 to win $20.00: Giants + 4.5...Chiefs -4...Seahawks -3. (won)

Three team 10 point teaser, $24 to win $20.00: Jets/Patriots under 57...Jaguars/Texas under 50...Dolphins/Bills under 49.5 (lost)

Week 16: Jaguars at Dolphins, Pandy's Pick: Dolphins -3.5, $33.00 to win $30.00.  Miami beat the Patriots in dramatic fashion two back, and they beat the Bears and Titans this year. But they faltered badly against the Vikings last week. Miami still have a shot to make the playoffs. Both of these teams have weak offenses, but the Jaguars have only scored a total of 28 points in their last three games. (lost)

Buccaneers at Cowboys, Pandy's Pick: Cowboys -7, $26.00 to win $25.00. The Cowboys laid an egg last week, getting shut out, but they need to step it up here and they face a team that has a hard time stopping the run. Tampa Bay has one of the top passing attacks in the NFL, on paper, but their offense has been slowing down recently and they face a solid Cowboy defense here. Tampa Bay has also struggled on the road this year. (push)

Three team 10 point teaser, $30.00 to win $25.00, Titans even...Colts + 1/2...Cowboys +3 (won)

Three team 10 point teaser, $25.00 to win $20.00, Bills at Patriots, under 54 1/2...Packers at Jets, Jets +12.5....Texans at Eagles, Texans +12.5 (won)

Money line three team parlay: $39.00 to win $30.00, Colts, Rams, Cowboys. (won)

Week 15: Three team 10 point teaser, $60.00 to win $50.00...Cowboys at Colts, Cowboys +13...Redskins/Jaguars under 47...Seahawks at 49ers, Seahawks +6.5 (lost)

Week 14: Giants at Redskins, Pandy's Pick: Giants -3, $50.00 to win $40.00. This line has been all over the place this week, but as of Saturday morning is -3, dropping because the Giants star WR Beckham is out for this game.  The Redskins have a ton of key injuries and their starting QB, Mark Sanchez, just got signed a couple of weeks ago. Sanchez is usually good for a couple of turnovers. (won)

Three team 10 point teaser, $36.00 to win $30.00...Jaguars at Titans under 47.5...Saints at Buccaneers, Saints +1...Steelers at Raiders, Steelers even (lost)

Three team 10 point teaser, $36.00 to win $30.00...Ravens at Chiefs, Ravens +16...Panthers at Browns, Browns + 10...Jets at Buffalo, under 48 (lost)

Week 13: Bears at Giants, Pandy's Pick: Bears - 3.5. I just bet this at 11:38 eastern time on Thursday night, the line dropped. I'm still not sure who will be at quarterback for the Bears but their defense is brutally tough and the Giants offense is very inconsistent, even though they have talent. The play calling for the Giants is not very creative.  The Giants defense has been disappointing. The key to this game may be the Bears pass rush against Eli Manning, who is clearly past his prime. (lost)

Chiefs at Raiders, Pandy's Pick: Chiefs - 8 first half, $22 to win $20.00. I rarely do this but in case Oakland gets a back door cover in garbage time I'll take a shot with the Chiefs to come out hot and cover the spread for the first half. The line on the game is -14 as of this writing. The first half line dropped to 8 after the Chiefs lost their start running back. (won)

Two team parlay on the money line, $20.00 to win $53.00 Colts over Jaguars and Chargers over Steelers. (lost)

Four team parlay on the money line, $20.00 to win $28.00, Ram...Chiefs...Bears...Seahawks (lost)

Three team 10 point teaser, $36.00 to win $30.00, Bills +13.5...Broncos +5...Colts +6 (push, no bet)

Three team 10 point teaser, $30.00 to win $25.00,  Chargers +13...Bills +13.5...Vikings +15 (won)

Three team 10 point teaser, $24.00 to win $20.00, Falcons + 7.5...Chief -4...Seahawks even (lost)

 Saints at Cowboys, Pandy's Pick: Saints -7 for $50.00. The Cowboys had problems in the passing game until getting young wide receiver Amari Cooper, who has helped them tremendously, not only in the passing game, but in the running game, which has perked up since he came in. The Cowboys also have a solid defense, especially against the run. As for the Saints, they've excelled defending the run but since they score so much, that number may be a bit suspect; we'll find out tonight because the Cowboys will try to run the ball with their star back. But the Saints have so many weapons. They can run and quarterback Drew Brees has been sensational this year. He seems to be able to pass accurately to several receivers and backs. The Cowboys have allowed an average of 291 passing yards per game throughout their three game win streak, and the secondary will get severely tested here. Another thing that makes the Saints so tough, they are doing a very good job of protecting pocket-passer Brees, who has been sacked a league low 10 times this year. The Saints can run, too, and they have two top shelf running backs. This is an elite offense, and the Saints have an improving defense that has been forcing turnovers. (lost)

Week 12: Three team parlay on the money line, $20 to win $22, Ravens, Chargers, Vikings. (won)

Three team 10 point teaser, $40 to win $33.00, Colts +2.5 vs Dolphins...Seahawks +13 vs Panthers...Browns +13 vs Bengals (won)

Three team 10 point teaser, $30 to win $25, Giants + 14.5 vs Eagles...Seahawks +13 vs Panthers...Vikings +7 vs Packers (won)

Week 11: Texans at Redskins, Pandy's Pick: Texans -3 for $50.00. Both teams are 6-3 and both have solid defenses. Give the Redskins credit for somehow holding Tampa Bay to only 3 points last week, even though the Buccaneers gained over 500 yards, which was the first time that's ever happened in NFL history. But the Redskins have a lot of injuries on offense, including three starting offensive linemen out, two out for the season. They didn't have a potent offense in the first place but with all of the injuries, they should struggle to score points when they face a good defense. The Texans got off to a rocky start this year but have now won 7 games in a row. They have a solid defense and a good pass rush, and the offense has gotten the job done. The Texans also come off a bye so they are healthier than the Redskins by a clear margin. (lost, Texans won by 2)

Buccaneers at Giants, Pandy's Pick: Giants - 1.5 for $50.00. I put this bet in Friday before the line moved and I got minus 1.5. On Sunday, bookmaker moved the line to -3. The Giants offense is puzzling, they struggle to score even tough they have three of the fastest players in the league on the field most of the time. But last week their offensive line played much better and here they are pitted against a poor defense in Tampa Bay, a team that is last in the league in points allowed at over 32 points a game. The Giants defense has been playing better recently. (won)

Three team 10 point teaser, $24 to win $20, Tampa Bay/Giants over 42...Raiders/Cardinals under 51...Chiefs/Rams over 53 (won)

Three team 10 point teaser $25 to win $20, Giants +7 vs Bucs...Texans + 7 vs Redskins...Titans + 11 1/2 vs Colts (lost)

Week 10: Saints at Bengals, Pandy's Pick: Saints -6 for $30. The Saints are rolling on offense and the Bengals defense has not been good this year, as they are ranked 32nd (last) in total yards and passing yards. The Bengals are also missing their star wide receiver A J Green, who is often the difference maker when they win. (won)

Chargers at Raiders, Pandy's Pick: Chargers -10 for $30. The Chargers have been playing extremely well and the Raider's defense has been getting torched. Further complicating things for Oakland, they don't have much speed on offense. (won)

Cowboys at Eagles, Pandy's Pick: Eagles -7 for $30.00. The Eagles come off a bye and even though this is a divisional game, the Eagles should cover the spread. The Cowboys do two things well, play defense, and run the ball. The Eagles defense is second in the NFL at stopping the run. This puts the pressure on the Cowboys to pass and they don't have enough weapons. The Eagles are a much better balanced team and they need to win this home game. (lost)

$36 ten point three team teaser: Chargers even...Saints +4...Giants +13.5 (won)

Week 9: Lions at Vikings, Pandy's Pick: Vikings -4.5 for $50.00. The Vikings played well at times against the tough New Orleans Saints last week but bad coaching decisions (throwing an incomplete pass on 4th an inches on their own 48 yard line in the second quarter, and they had an empty backfield!) and a few mistakes took them out of the game. The Lions traded their best wide receiver this week. (won)

Bucs at Panthers, Pandy's Pick: Panthers -6 for $50.00. The Panthers are a solid team and Tampa Bay's defense leaves much to be desired. (won)

$60 ten point three team teaser: Steelers/Ravens, Steelers +12...Texans/Broncos, Texans +11.5...Rams/Saints, over 48 (won)

Week 8: I posted this in mid-week when the line was even. Redskins at Giants, Pandy's Pick: Redskins even. The Redskins defense is solid, which is bad news for a dysfunctional Giants offense that can't get out of its own way. The Giants started to trade some players this week, as they have given up on the season. Washington is 4-2 and has a lot to play for. The line is low because these two teams have a history of close games, but the Redskins are clearly a better team. (won)

Buccaneers at Bengals, Pandy's Pick: Bengals - 4. The Buccanneers defense has struggled and they are without two starting linemen. The Bengals were blown out by the Chiefs last week so this is a big game for them at home, and they have an offense that can win a shootout. (lost, Bengals won by 3)

$60 ten point three team teaser: Redskins/Giants, Redskins +9...Bengals/Buccanneers, Bengals +6...Vikings/Saints, Vikings +12 (won)

Week 7: Titans Vs Chargers (in London), Pandy's Pick: Chargers - 6.5 for $50. The Chargers have a strong offense, and not just because of their sharp passer Phillip Rivers. They can run the ball, too. They also have a good pash rush. The Titans were shut out last week and their quarterback was sacked 11 times. They have a solid defense, but their offense is a mess right now. (lost)

$60 ten point three team teaser: Vikings/Jets over 35.5...Rams/49ers over 42.5...Redskins +11 (won)

Week 6: Bucs at Falcons, Pandy's Pick: Falcons -3 for $50. Both teams have problems on defense, with the Falcons hurt by injuries. But Tampa Bay gave up 6 TD passes to the Bears last week, and they're not a top offensive team. This is desperation time for the Falcons as they need to go all-out to get back on track at home. They should be able to score and move the ball against one of the weakest defenses in the NFL. (won)

$60 three team 10 point teaser: Vikings even...Steelers +12...Falcons +7. (won)

$25 three team 10 point teaser: Dolphins/Bears under 51.5...Jaguars/Cowboys under 50...Falcons/Titans under 52 (lost)

Week 5: $50.00 three team 10 point teaser: Lions +9, Redskins + 16, Broncos +9 (lost)

Week 3: all picks $50.00

Bengals at Panthers, Pandy's pick: Bengals + 3. The Bengals have been solid so far and they have a good pass rush. Carolina's offense does not seem that strong. But the main reason for the pick here is that the Bengals come into this game with an edge because Carolina has several key injuries. (lost)

Packers at Redskins, Pandy's pick: Redskins + 3. I'm not sure how good the Packers are, and they tend to struggle on the road early in the season. The Redskins defense has been pretty good. (won)

Three team 10 point teasers: Redskins + 13...Bengals + 13...Chargers + 17 (won)
Ravens/Broncos under 55.5...Eagles/Colts under 56.5...Chiefs/49ers  over 45 (won)

Week 2: all picks $50.00

Panthers at Falcons, Pandy's pick: Falcons -6. The Falcons kept it close against the Super Bowl Champ Eagles last week. The Panthers managed to beat the Cowboys but the Panthers have a lot of key injuries and they could struggle to score points against this quick Falcons defense. (won)

Giants at Cowboys, Pandy's pick: Giants +3. The Giants offense was once again underwhelming last week but they did play a top tier defense. They do have weapons on offense, but haven't been putting it together. The Cowboys offense looked pretty bad last week, with offensive line problems, and they have lost two of the long time veteran receivers. I expect this to be a relatively low-scoring game but I think the Giants are a better team. (lost)

Eagles at Buccaneers, Pandy's pick: Eagles -3. The Eagles offense didn't look that good last week, but they were playing a quick Falcons defense. The key to this game, the Eagles defense, which was good last year, is potentially even better now. Tampa Bay's offense came up huge last week but that was against the Saints. This week, Tampa faces a much better defense in every aspect. (lost)

Vikings at Packers, Pandy's pick: Vikings -3. I liked the Vikings last week and I'm going to stick with them again here. As we know, QB Aaron Rogers is supposed to start this game but he is nursing an injured leg and that will be tough to deal with against this terrific Vikings defense. I also didn't think that the Green Bay defense looked that good against the Bulls last week. The Bulls don't appear to have a lot of offensive speed. (lost)

Three Team 10 point teaser, Texans + 6.5....Giants + 13...Jaguars +11 for $50 (won)

Three Team 10 point teaser, Vikings +7...Eagles + 7...Broncos + 3.5 for $50 (won)

Week 1: 

Bills at Ravens, Pandy's pick: Ravens -7.5. The Bills try a new quarterback this year and he'll face a solid defense. The Bills have a lot to prove. (won)

49ers at Vikings, Pandy's pick: Vikings -6.5. The Vikings defense was stellar last year and the 49ers defense has a few injuries. New QB Kirk Cousins takes over for Minnesota, and he can get hot. (won)

 

2017 SEASON

 

2017 record vs spread: 9-18, minus $680.00
2017 teaser record: 7-8, minus $280

I wish I had bet against my NFL picks this year, tough year. But I made up for some of the loss in the Super Bowl. 

Sunday, February 4, Eagles vs Patriots, Pandy's Pick: Eagles + 5.5. I posted my pick early, and i bet early and I got 5.5 points, but the line has dropped to the Patriots favored by 4.5, and some big gambler bet $1 million on the Eagles in Vegas. I've bet the last six Super Bowls that involved the Patriots and I won my bet in five of them, with the only loss last year, when they made that big comeback against the Falcons. Five times I bet against them and won four of those bets. The trick to beating the Patriots is usually the same, you have to pressure Tom Brady, and you have to be able to get first downs so you can keep the Patriots offense off the field. What makes it so tough to beat the Patriots is their coaching, which is the best in the history of the NFL. It's pretty amazing, really. Since Tom Brady took over as QB, he has missed 20 games due to injury of suspension. The Patriots record in those games is 14-6! Yep, they have a Hall of Fame quarterback who some say is the best ever, yet when he doesn't play, their win percentage with a second string quarterback is just as good. That's proof that no one can come close to this organization when it comes to managing and preparing a football team. And, regardless of how you feel about Coach Bill Belichick, he is a football genius. The Patriots are often not the best team on the field, in terms on speed, talent, etc., but even when they're getting blown out by a better team, like they were in the first half of last year's SB, they make the adjustments and come back. (won)

In this game, the Eagles clearly beat the better teams to get to the Super Bowl, as they beat the best defense in the NFL, the Vikings, and they beat the talented Atlanta Falcons, holding them to only ten points. The Eagles have a good pass rush, but I hope they blitz enough here. Some teams play way too conservatively against the Patriots, and you can't do that. The Eagles can run the ball and that could be a key to the game. I think the Eagles are a more talented team. But they can't make too  mistakes and they have to play aggressively. One thing I noticed when handicapping the game, although the Patriots defense, which started the year horribly, has played very well down the stretch, they haven't played top offensive teams. So they should get a stern test against the potent and balanced Eagles offensive attack. So here we go again, another Patriots Super Bowl. Usually, whether they win or lose, the games are close. (won)

Sunday, January 21: Jaguars at Patriots, Pandy's Pick, Patriots -7 for $60.00. The line dropped a little because of the possibility that star QB Tom Brady plays hurt or misses the game all together. He hurt a finger on his throwing hand in practice. The Jaguars best chance here is to pressure Brady, and they are not called "Sacksonville" for nothing, they are second in the NFL in sacks. The Patriots are the best home team in NFL history, they are really tough to beat in New England. Brady will get try to get rid of the ball quick and spread his passes around to a variety of targets including his running backs. This is how the Patriots deal with a strong defense like the Jaguars, they run them ragged with a hurry up offense and passes to different spots on the field. The Jaguars have power running backs but Belichick will probably crowd the line of scrimmage and try to make QB Blake Bortles beat him. If the Jaguars running game is working, they have a shot to make it a close game. Bortles played well last week but is erratic. For the Jaguars to win, Bortles has to play a good game and he has to hurt the Patriots with his legs. Bortles is a good athlete and if he can hit some passes downfield it will open up the field and he may be able to secure some first downs with his legs. But the Patriots prepare for these big games better than any team in NFL history. They don't always have the best personal in the league, but they have the best coach by a mile, and a cagey quarterback who makes the clutch passes down the stretch. (loss)

Vikings at Eagles, Pandy's Pick, Vikings -3 for $25.00. This is an interesting game pitting two solid back up quarterbacks and two tough defenses. Since Nick Foles took over for superstar Carson Wentz, the Eagles have relied on their defense and Foles has managed the offense okay. However, Foles has not shown the kind of down field passing accuracy that he had a few years ago when he made the all-star team. This could be the key to the game because the Vikings have a very good secondary. Last week the Saints scored 24 points against the Vikings and got on a roll in the second half, but if you watched the game, you saw that QB Drew Brees was throwing pinpoint passes. Brees had a great year this year and hit a remarkable 72% of his passes. The Vikings cornerbacks had good coverage last week, but Brees kept putting the ball right on the money. Can Nick Foles do that? Another factor is the pass rush. Both of these teams are capable of pressuring and sacking the quarterback. Both of these quarterbacks can be vulnerable under pressure. Case Keenum had a strong 98 passer rating and was only intercepted 7 times in 15 regular season starts this year and he ran the ball 40 times for 160 yards, an excellent average of 4 yards per carry. Foles is not as athletic and needs to have solid pass protection. For the Eagles to win, they have to play a big defensive game and somehow get their running backs into the game, perhaps with short passes. The home field advantage has been a big edge in these conference championship games. The Vikings have good wide receivers, a great defense, and a quarterback who can run the ball when he needs to get a key first town. 

Sunday, January 14: Saints at Vikings, Pandy's Pick, Vikings -5 for $60.00. I should have bet this early in the week, the line opened at -4. This could be a great game. There are two things that are obvious, one is that the Saints have a great QB and the Vikings don't. The other is that the Vikings have a great defense, big, fast, and well coached. As for the quarterbacks, since week 10 of the season, Case Keenum has the highest passer rating in the league. Both teams are solid and well rounded. Both teams run the ball well but I think the Vikings will have the edge running in this game. The Saints defense, especially their secondary, is much improved this year. I think the Vikings are just a better team and they can force a few turnovers with their outstanding defense. (push)

Wildcard Weekend: Titans at Chiefs, Pandy's Pick: Titans +8.5, $60.00. Tennessee isn't flashy but they play solid defense and run the ball well. This could be a low scoring, grind it out game. (won)

Panthers at Saints, Pandy's Pick: Saints - 6.5, $60.00. The Saints, like most of the NFL teams this year, have had their inconsistencies but they are a solid team. Their secondary surprised me at times this year, providing good pass coverage and the Saints are 10th in the NFL in points allowed per game. The Panthers receivers have trouble getting open, the Panthers rank 28th in the NFL in pass offense, and it's hard to win in the playoffs if you can't complete passes downfield. (lost)

Week 18: Redskins at Giants, Pandy's Pick: Redskins -3, $125.00. Both of these teams have been hurt by injuries, but the Redskins have been resilient behind quarterback Kirk Cousins and come off two game wins where the offense performed well against two tough defenses and the defense held its ground. The Giants have lost five in a row and three since the coaching change and they just got shut out. In this game, they lose one of their starting cornerbacks, who is suspended, and to make matters worse, both of Manning's best receivers, Engram and Shepard, are out with injuries. The Giants may try out rookie David Webb at quarterback, which would be a tough spot for him since the Giants have no weapons. These teams usually play close games but the Redskins have a clear advantage here. (lost)

Jets at Patriots, Pandy''s Pick: Patriots minus 15, $50.00. The Patriots will be trying because if they win, they get a bye. The Jets are a good team and they often play the Patriots tough, but the Jets will either have Byrce Petty or a rookie who has never taken a snap at QB today, in frigid conditions that favor Tom Brady and the Patriots, especially at home. The Patriots like to run up the score when they need a win. Their defense, which started the season dismally, has been playing much better, and they have the number one offense in football. (won)

49ers at Rams, Pandy's Pick: 49ers minus 4 for $50.00. The 49ers are hot with their new QB and the Rams will be resting their best players. (won)

10 point three team teaser for $60, Patriots -5...Redskins +7....Cardinals +18.5 (lost)

Week 17: Raiders at Eagles, Pandy's Pick, Eagles -9 for $65.00. (lost)

10 point three team teaser for $100.00, Falcons/New Orleans, Falcons +16...Broncos/Redskins under 50.5...Eagles +1 (won)

Week 16: Eagles at Giants, Pandy's Pick, Eagles -7.5. The Eagles lost their star quarterback to a season-ending injury last week but backup QB Nick Foles is still young (28), and still good. He was once an all-start quarterback on a team that wasn't as good as this one. Last week the first four drives he played in ended in four field goals for the Eagles. The Giants defense occasionally steps up their game but they're inconsistent and the Giants offense, which has been riddled with injuries, has been bad. Quarterback Eli Manning has made me money over the years but last year and this year he just hasn't been that sharp. The Eagles can do it all, they run the ball well, pass well, and they can pressure the quarterback. The Giants offensive line hasn't been that good. (lost)

10 point three team teaser for $60.00, Bengals/Vikings, Vikings -2...Jets/Saints, Saints -6...Cardinals/Redskins, Cardinals +14 (won)

Week 15: 10 point three team teaser for $60.00, Chiefs/Raiders over 38...Lions at Buccaneers, Bucs +10...Ravens at Steelers, Ravens +14.5 (won)

Week 14: Rams at Cardinals, Pandy's Pick: Rams -7, for $65.00. The Rams crushed the Cardinals earlier this year, on a neutral field, and that's when the Cardinals were a lot healthier than they are now. Last week the Cardinals did upset Jacksonville, but Jacksonville's offense is built around the run and the only thing the Cardinals have done well this year is defend against the run. The Rams seem to have too much talent compared to the Cardinals right now. (won)

10 point three team teaser for $125.00, Lions +13...Vikings +12.5...Dolphins +12 (lost)

Thanksgiving Day, Vikings at Lions, Pandy's Pick: Vikings -3 for $65.00. The Vikings lost to the Lions at home earlier in the year but committed key turnovers in that game. Their offense is clicking, they have a top five defense. The Lions have won three straight but beat a Rogers-less Green Bay team, the Bears, and the Browns. The Vikings are a better overall team. (won)

Bears at Eagles, Pandy's Pick, Eagles -13.5 for $65.00. Not much to say here, big spread but Chicago's offense isn't that good and they face an Eagles team that is firing on all cylinders. (won)

10 point three team teaser for $125.00, Falcons even...Eagles -3.5...Ravens +3.  (won)

Week 12: Patriots vs Raiders on neutral field (Mexico City), Pandy's Pick, Patriots - 6.5. The Patriots defense has steadily come around but the key to this game may be the Raider's defense, which has been vulnerable to a good passing game, against the Patriots number 1 ranked offense. (won)

10 point three team teaser, Cardinals +12.5...Saints + 1/2 point...Chiefs even. (lost)

Week 11: Chargers at Jaguars, Pandy's Pick, Jaguars -5.5, $65.00. I should have bet this earlier in the week, it opened two points lower. The Jaguars young talent is finally showing and they have one of the best defensive teams in the NFL. (lost)

Packers at Bears, Pandy's Pick, Bears -5.5, $65.00. The Packers are not the same without their superstar QB and the Bears are playing very good defense now, and they have a young quarterback with potential. (lost)

Three team 10 point teaser for $50.00, Lions-Bears under 54...Steelers-Colts over 35...Bears-Packers under 47.5 (lost)

Week 10: Bills at Jets, Pandy's Pick: Bills -3, $50.00. Buffalo has been forcing turnovers, running the ball well, and playing good defense. They are tough to run against. The Jets have played well and obviously are better than many experts predicted they'd be but the Bills are solid playoff contenders. (lost)

Raiders at Dolphins, Pandy's Pick: Raiders -3. The Raiders gave the game away with mistakes last week but the Dolphins have struggled and seem to have lost interest. Jay Cutler comes back this week but the offense hasn't played well for him. (push)


Week 9: Panthers at Bucaneers, Pandy's Pick: Panthers +1.5 for $65.00. Tampa Bay's defense has struggled this year so the edge on defense goes to the Panthers. As for offense, the Panthers have been inconsistent but they did move the ball well in their last two games, even though they gave up turnovers and lost both games. They just seem like the better team here. (won)

49ers at Eagles, Pandy's Pick, 49ers +13 for $65.00. The Eagles lost two defensive starters in season ending injuries last week. They come off a division win over the Redskins on Monday night and could be in a letdown spot. Of course, the Eagles may just be the best team in the NFL and they could blow this game out under what is going to be very rough windy and rainy conditions. But the 49ers have kept most of their games close and they have a solid front four. (lost)

Teaser: 10 point $100.00 teaser, Houston at Seattle, under 55.5....Steelers at Lions, under 56.5...Raiders at Bills, Raiders +12 (lost)

Week 8: Seahawks at Giants, Pandy's Pick, Seahawks - 3.5, $65.00. The Giants surprised at Denver last week as they ran the ball efficiently against the top run defense in the NFL. But Seattle will take the run away today and force the Giants to try and beat them passing, against one of the top passing defenses in football. (won)

Teaser: 10 point $100.00 teaser, Falcons at Patriots, Falcons +13...Redskins at Eagles, Redskins +15...Seahawks at Giants, under 50 (lost)

Week 7: Giants at Broncos, Pandy's Pick, Broncos - 11 1/2, $150.00. The Giants are 0 and 5 and that was when they had their starters. Last week they lost both of their starting wide receivers, their slot receiver, and their punt returner, who would have started at wide receiver this week. And they have other key injuries. This week they go against a defense that is ranked first in yards and rushing yards. The Giants can't run the ball anyway and now they've lost all of their top receivers. The Giants defense would normally be competitive against the Broncos, who do not have a high powered offense, but, I think the Giants defense will get tired as I can't see the Giants offense staying on the field long, especially in the thin mountain air. (lost)

Teaser: 10 point $100.00 teaser, Eagles at Panthers, Eagles +13 1/2...Patriots at Jets, Patriots + 1...Browns at Texans, Texans even. (won)

Week 6: Chiefs at Texans, Pandy's Pick, Texans $50.00 (pk). The Texans rookie QB gets a test against a top team this week but he has looked good and the Texans defense figures to be tough at home. (lost)

10 point $100.00 teaser: Lions at home against the Bengals, Lions +7.5...Texans at home against the Chiefs, Texans +10...Bills at Bengals, Bills + 13. (won)

10 point $100.00 teaser: Cardinals +16.5 at Eagles...Packers +13 at Cowboys...Chargers +13 at Giants. (lost)

Week 5: Thursday pick, Patriots at Buccaneers, Pandy's Pick, $50.00 over 52.5....The Patriots defense is off to a horrendous start, ranked last in the NFL, but the offense is clicking, as usual. Tampa Bay's defense is also ranked low but the offense is doing well. I bet the over here and I did get 52.5 this morning. (lost)

Week 4: 3 team 10 point $100.00 teaser: Giants at Tampa Bay, Giants +13...Titans at Texans, Titans + 7.5...Bengals at Browns, Bengals +7. (lost)

Week 3: Saints at Panthers, Pandy's Pick, $50.00 Panthers -5.5. The Saints defense has been abysmal so far and their solid offense will face a tougher defense here. (lost)

Steelers at Bears, Pandy's Pick: $50.00 Steelers -7. The Bears are struggling without Jay Cutler and the Steelers defense is improved and playing well. (lost)

Dolphins at Jets, Pandy's Pick: $50.00 Dolphins -6. This is usually a tough division match up but the Jets haven't done much offensively or defensively. The Dolphins have Jay Cutler now, and he is the best quarterback they've had since Marino retired. (lost)

3 team 10 point $50.00 teaser: Panthers +4.5...Steelers +3...Dolphins +4. (lost)

Week 2: 3 team, 10 point $100.00 teaser: Raiders - 3.5.....Redskins +12.5....Lions +13 (won)

Week 1: Against the spread pick, $50.00 Falcon's at Bears, Pandy's pick, Falcons -6.5. Yes, the Falcons collapsed in the Super Bowl and should have won the game, but they have a quick, young, defense, and a potent offense. The Bears lost their best wide receiver to injury. (loss, Falcons won by 6)

 

THE NFL 2016 SEASON

 

Teaser record 13-5 +$695.00
Record vs spread in regular picks 7-12

Super Bowl Record: I started posting my Super Bowl pick on my website 16 years ago, 10-6 now. 

Pandy's Super Bowl pick: Falcons vs Patriots, Falcons +3. It's hard to believe that once again I have to analyze a Super Bowl that has the Patriots in it. The last four times the Patriots played in the Super Bowl, I won my bet. I took the points with the Eagles, Giants, Giants. The Eagles covered, and the Giants covered and won outright. Then two years ago I took the Patriots to beat the Seahawks, which they did. (loss)

This year's match up is very interesting, basically the top offense against the top defense. It will be interesting to see how Belichick tries to slow down the potent Falcons offense, which has so many weapons. Matty Ice threw touch downs to 13 different players this season, and they have two good running backs. My guess is that Belichick will drop as many in coverage as possible and let the Falcons try to run the ball. But, he could also trying blitzing. You never know with this guy. 

The Falcons defense is young and quick and they've been playing well the second half of the season. The key to beating the Patriots is usually, pressure Brady. The Falcons can rush the quarterback, but they do it best when blitzing, and the Patriots are a tough team to blitz because they'll use quick passes to get the ball out of Brady's hands. 

Another interesting part of this game, will the Patriots use their potent no huddle offense, or try to slow the game down to keep the Falcons' hot offense off the field? 

The Patriots are the most well coached team, by far, in professional sports. What they've accomplished during the Belichick era is amazing. Some people say they win because of Tom Brady, but Brady missed the 2008 season and he missed a playoff game early in his career, and he missed the first three games of this year. The Patriots record in those games, without Tom Brady playing, is 15-6! And they actually won 8 games in a row during one stretch, without Brady. And in 14 of those wins, they had a second string quarterback who was an average player at best. 

That's the amazing thing about this organization. Belichick has this down to a science, and it almost seems that it doesn't matter what players he puts on the field. He teaches them to win. This year the Patriots quarterbacks have only thrown four interceptions! The Patriots are a team that doesn't make a lot of mistakes.

I do think that the Patriots had the easier schedule this year, when compared to the Falcons. And I think the Falcons offense is so hot, and so talented, that they can move the ball and score on any defense in the NFL. I'll take the Falcons to use their team speed to post the upset. 

Sunday, February 5: Super Bowl. I'll have my Super Bowl analysis later this week but I have a teaser pick already, and I just made this bet this morning (Monday, January 23). 

Super Bowl two team 7 point teaser, Pandy's Pick: Falcons vs Patriots, Falcons +10, under 66. (won)

Packers at Falcons, Pandy's Pick: Falcons -5. I don't like the Falcons as much in this game as I did against Seattle, because Green Bay is hot and they may have a chance in a shoot out, and because everyone seems to be picking the Falcons. But, the Falcons offense just seems too much for the Green Bay defense. The Falcons can run the ball, they have the best wide receiver in football, and their hot QB Matty Ice completed passes to eight different receivers last week. (won)

Saturday, January 14: Seahawks at Falcons, Pandy's Pick: Falcons - 6.5. The Falcons lost to the Seahawks in Seattle earlier this year, but their offense is playing amazingly well. In four of their last five wins, their defense held their opponent to under 20 points, so their defense is playing better. The Seahawks are without their all star safety Earl Thomas. The Falcons offense is well balanced and can attack like no other offense in football. (won)

Wild Card Weekend: Raiders at Texans, Pandy's Pick, Texans -3.5. The Raiders beat the Texans at Oakland 27-20 earlier in the year. That was with their star QB, Derek Carr, who is injured. This game is unusual in that both teams still don't know who will be the QB as of this writing. Oakland's second string QB McGloin hurt his shoulder last week, and the Texans lost their starter due to a concussion. But if Savage can't play for Houston, they have Osweiler, who has played most of the snaps this year. The Texans have the number 1 ranked defense. The Raiders have a high powered offense, but the key is, can they generate that same kind of offense without their all star quarterback? I'll go with the Texans and their tough defense to cover. (won)

Dolphins at Steelers, Pandy's Pick, Dolphins +10. The Dolphins beat the Steelers pretty easily earlier in the season but the Steelers defense is playing much better now, and the Dolphins will most likely be playing this game with their second-string QB Matt Moore. But, the Dolphins have won 9 of their last 11, and one of those losses, last week's poor effort against the Patriots, was not a game that they needed to win. The bottom line is, this is a lot of points when you consider the way the Dolphins have played this year. (loss)

3 team 10 point teaser, $50.00, Texans +6.5...Dolphins +20...Giants +14.5

Week 17: 3 team 10 point teaser for $100.00, Patriots + 1/2...Seawhawks + 1/2....Chiefs +6. (won)

Week 16: Giants at Eagles, Pandy's Pick: Giants +1.5. The line changed from -2.5 to +1.5. These two teams usually play close games, it's a conference match up. And there is the possibility that the Giants will come out flat after two hard fought wins against the Cowboys and Lions. But, the Giants defense has come to hand. In the off season the Giants front office made several moves to bolster the D. The defensive coach, Spagnuolo, is one of the best and he has this defense in playoff lock down mode now. The Giants offense hasn't been as good as it was last year and seems out of synch at times. But, last week, even though they only scored 17 points, the offense looked smoother and the running game was improved. The Eagles have lost five in a row so these are two teams going in the opposite direction. One of these days the Giants are going to get their offense into a rhythm and blow someone out. (loss)

Week 15: Eagles at Ravens, Pandy's Pick: Ravens -5.5. The Ravens need to win this race. The Eagles have problems on the offensive line and their offense is sputtering, not a good thing against one of the better defenses in the NFL. (won but didn't cover, loss)

Jaguars at Texans, Pandy's Pick: Texans - 3.5. The Jaguars have a good, quick, defense, but no offense, which is why they have lost 8 straight games. The Texans have a solid defense, they can run the ball, and they play well at home. (won but didn't cover, loss)

49ers at Falcons, Pandy's Pick: Falcons -14. The Falcons defense has been playing better and they have a potent offense facing off against a defense that isn't that good and falls apart in the second half. (covered easily, win)

Buccaneers at Cowboys, Pandy's Pick: Buccaneers +7. Tampa Bay's defense has developed into one of the best in the league and they are a hot team. The Cowboys have that great offensive line but their passing game struggled against good defenses the last two games. (covered, win)

3 team 10 point teaser, $100, Buccanneers +17...Saints +13...Texans +6.5 (won)

Week 14: 

3 team 10 point teaser for $50, Bengals +5 vs Browns (cover)...Jets +13 vs 49ers (cover)...Redskins +10 vs Eagles (cover) won

3 team 10 point teaser for $50, Texans +16.5 vs Colts (cover)...Broncos +11.5 vs Titans (cover)...Vikings/Jaguars under 49 (cover) (won)

3 team 10 point teaser for $50, Bengals +5 vs Browns (cover)...Bucs + 8.5 vs Saints (cover)...Jets +13 vs 49ers (cover) won

3 team 10 point teaser for $50, Lions + 2.5 vs Bears (cover)...Redskins +10 vs Eagles (cover)...Seahawks/Packers under 56.5 (cover) won

Week 13: Giants + 6.5 at Steelers, Pandy's Pick, Giants + 6.5. The Giants have won 6 in a row. The Steelers have won two in a row but beat two teams that had key injuries at QB. (loss)

3 team 10 point teaser for $100....Lions + 16.5 at Saints...Giants + 16.5 at Steelers...Jets +11.5 vs Colts (loss)

Week 12: 3 team 10 point teaser for $100....Redskins +16.5 at Cowboys....Giants +3 at Browns...Steelers +1 at Colts (won)

Week 11: 3 team 10 point teaser for $100...Cardinals +12 at Vikings...Bills +12 1/2 at Bengals...Miami +9 at Rams (won)

Week 10: 

3 team 10 point teaser for $100...Chiefs +13 at Panthers...Cowboys +13 at Steelers....Texans + 12 1/2 at Jaguars (won)

Week 9: 

3 team 10 point teaser for $100...last week I played a $200 teaser which worked out well but I'm back to $100 this week. Note: The point spreads are the exact same as I got when I made my bet, so these are accurate lines as of 10:45 eastern time on Sunday....Lions at Vikings, Lions +16...Eagles at Giants, Eagles +13...Panthers at Rams, Panthers +7 (won)

Season record against the spread: 2-6. 

Teaser record: 4-3, + $170.00

Week 8: 

3 team 10 point teaser for $200.00, Cardinals +13 at Panthers...Raiders +10 at Buccaneers...Eagles +14 at Cowboys (win)

Week 7: Giants at Rams (in London), Pandy's Pick: Giants - 2.5. This pick is mainly based on the Rams injuries. As for the Giants, their offense finally seemed to mesh last week, or at least start to get in sync, and they are capable of a lot more. (won)

10 point three team teaser, Vikings at Eagles, Vikings +7...Raiders at Jaguars, Raiders +11...Buccaneeers at 49ers, Buccaneeers +10 (loss)

Season record against the spread: 2-6. 

Teaser record: 2-3 -$30.00

Week 6: Broncos at Chargers, Pandy's Pick: Broncos -3. (loss)

10 point three team teaser, Jaguars +11.5 at Bears...Ravens + 13.5 at Giants...Dallas +14.5 at Packers (won)

Week 5: Cardinals at 49ers, Pandy's Pick: Cardinals - 3.5. The Cardinals only have 1 win but offensively and defensively they have more talent, even without starting quarterback Carson Palmer, who will miss this time due to a concussion. (won)

Giants +7 at Packers, Pandy's Pick: Giants +7. The Packers secondary should have its hands full with the Giants talented receivers. (push)

3 team 10 point teaser, Browns at Patriots, Patriots even...Bills at Rams, Rams +11...Bears at Colts, Bears +14 1/2 (push)

Week 4: Dolphins at Bengals, Pandy's Pick, Dolphins + 7.5.  (loss)

10 point 3 team teaser, Jets +13 vs Seahawks...Raiders +13 at Ravens...Giants +14 at Vikings (loss)

Week 3: Texans +1 at Patriots, Pandy's Pick: Texans +1. The Patriots will be using their third string QB. Houston has a solid defense. We know that Belichick is a master coach but this is a tall order for the Pats, even at home. (loss)

Redskins at Giants, Pandy's Pick: Giants -3. The Giants defense has improved, and their offense is one of the best in the NFL. (loss)

10 point three team teaser, Jets + 12.5 at Chiefs (lost)...Denver +13.5 at Bengals...Lions +17 at Packers. (loss)

Season record against the spread: 1-5. 

Coming off a rare losing season on straight bets, let's see if we can get something going for the 2016 season. I skipped the first week but there's plenty of action ahead.

Wow, two tough losses to start the season. The Giants completely out played the Saints but didn't cover (turnovers, bad red zone plays, ouch)

Week 2: Ravens at Browns, Pandy's Pick: Ravens -5.5. Cleveland lost their starting QB due to a shoulder injury and McGown takes over again. He has 2 wins and 17 losses as a starter for the Browns. The Ravens defense was stout in their opening defeat of the Bills and Cleveland may have trouble moving the ball. (loss)

Saints at Giants, Pandy's Pick: Giants -4. This line has dropped so apparently there are bettors who believe that the Saints are improved. They certainly have a good offense, but so do the Giants. The Giants improved their defense over the off season, particularly the defensive line. Although this could be a shootout, I think the Giants outstanding wide receivers will prove to be tough to stop. New Orleans is going with second and third stringer cornerbacks in some situations as their starting CB was injured last week. (loss)

$100, 10 point three team teaser: Dallas +13 vs Skins (cover)...Eagles +13.5 vs Bears (cover)...Chiefs +13 vs Texans (cover)

 

THE NFL 2015 SEASON

Season record against the spread: 13-18, only won on teasers last year

Teaser record: 6-2, + $360.00. Last year my teaser bets were based on $100.00 wagers with a 20% vig and we'll try the same thing this year to keep track of them. 

Super Bowl: Opening line was 3.5. Pandy's Pick, Carolina -4 over Broncos. Carolina basically destroyed Seattle and Arizona, and I think that those two teams were healthier and better than the teams that the Broncos had to beat to get here. The Patriots are well coached but really don't have the talent of the other teams, plus they had some injuries, and the Steelers were also banged up. Hard to go past Carolina. (loss)

My picks sucked this past weekend. My gut for weeks was that the Broncos and Panthers were the best teams but I over analyzed the games, which really gets me ticked off. 

Playoffs, Sunday, January 24: Patriots at Broncos, Pandy's Pick, Patriots -3. My pick is the Patriots, so this may be one of those games when I am routing against myself, because as a fan, I'd love to see the Broncos upset. The Broncos have the better defense and they have an excellent pass rush. The way to beat Brady has always been, pressure him. However, he'll be throwing those short passes, which allows him to get rid of the ball in under 3 seconds, and that negates the pass rush. Now, of course, if Denver gets a big lead, then the pass rush will be tough. This figures to be a low scoring game with the Broncos throwing short passes and running the ball and the Patriots throwing short passes. One big difference, Brady, although past his prime, is still a top QB. Peyton Manning is not. His arm strength is way down and even his accuracy has been off, especially on the longer passes that were his bread and butter. Denver has good receivers but the Patriots defense can force turnovers. If Manning doesn't turn the ball over and has a good game, the Broncos can win. There's also the possibility that Manning comes out of the game and Brock Osweiler comes in. The Broncos beat the Patriots with Osweiler at QB this year. 

Cardinals at Panthers, Pandy's Pick: Cardinals +3. This is a tough one because the Panthers have been dominant this year. But after analyzing the game, the Cardinals have more offensive weapons and a solid defense, and are getting points. 

Playoffs Week 2: Chiefs at Patriots, Pandy's Pick: Chiefs +5. This is tricky because the Chiefs best weapon Jeremy Maclin has an injury, and even if he plays he probably won't have a major impact. That hurts them because he draws double coverage. However, the Chiefs defense has been dynamite. This figures to be a low scoring game decided by which team plays better defense. (loss)

Packers at Cardinals, Pandy's Pick: Cardinals -7. The Packers offense woke up last week but here they face a team that is better offensively and defensively. Although Rogers may be the best quarterback in the NFL, Carson Palmer is a great passer who can pick teams apart. (amazing game, but a loss as Cardinals won by 6)

Steelers at Broncos, Pandy's Pick: Broncos -7. The Broncos defense is the key to their game. Big Ben is hurt but the Steelers QB has played some outstanding games while injured. Still, the Broncos are the better team. (push)

Playoffs Week 1: Steelers at Bengals, Pandy's Pick: Bengals +2.5 (covered, barely....)

Vikings at Seahawks, Pandy's Pick: Seahawks -4. (The Seahawks won the game but did not cover, loss)

Packers at Redskins, Pandy's Pick: Redskins -1. (wow, Packers woke up, loss)

Week 17: No regular picks this week, but I'm going to play a teaser. 

$100.00 3 team 10 point teaser, Broncos even against Chargers....Vikings +13 against Packers....Lions +11 against Bears (all three teams won, easy cover)

Week 16: No picks this week. 

Week 15: Broncos at Steelers, Pandy's Pick: Broncos +7. The Steelers are hot now but let's not forget that the Broncos defense has allowed the fewest yards per game in the NFL this year. (push)

Week 14: No regular picks this week, just a teaser. The 49ers have played better with their new QB and faces a weak team....The Redskins/Bears figures to be a close game as does the Pittsburge/Cincinnati game.... 3 team, 10 point teaser, 49ers at Browns, 49ers +11.5...Redskins at Bears, Redskins +13.5....Steelers at Bengals, Steelers +12.5 (loss)

Week 13: Panthers at Saints, Pandy's Pick: Panthers -6.5. I'll admit it, I just don't like the Saints. They have a terrible defense, and their once potent offense has scored a combined total of 20 points in their last two games. Even though Carolina has their division wrapped up, they are well coached and they should play hard as they try to keep their undefeated season going. 

Broncos at Chargers, Pandy's Pick: Broncos -4.5. Denver's defense is not playing as well as they did earlier in the year but they are solid. Denver ran the ball much better when they upset the Patriots last week. San Diego has been prone to mistakes and their defense allows a lot of points. 

Week 12: Saints at Texans, Pandy's Pick: Texans -3. The Saints have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Texans defense has been sharp the last four weeks. The Saints once high-powered offense has been sputtering recently. This match up favors the hot team, The Houston Texans. (won, easy cover)

$100.00 10 point three team teaser, Steelers at Seahawks, Steelers + 13 1/2....Buccaneers at Colts, Buccaneers +13...Giants at Redskins, Giants +8 (push, no win or loss)

Week 11: Chiefs at Chargers, Pandy's Pick: Chiefs -3. I posted this one early. The Chiefs have righted their ship and are back to playing the way they played last year, solid defense, strong running game, ball control. The Chiefs offense is finally clicking. The Chargers have lost five in a row, their defense can be sloppy at times and they have no running game. (Chiefs dominated, won)

Week 10: 

Patriots at Giants, Pandy's Pick: Patriots - 7.5. The Giants have beaten the Patriots three straight times, two of which were in the Super Bowl. But this Giants team does not have the great pass rush that those teams had. New York's defense has been suspect. Offensively, the Patriots are tough to stop. On defense, the Patriots have a solid defense. So we have two good offenses, one good defense. I'll lay the points with the Patriots. (Patriots won by did not cover, loss)

Teaser record: 5-1, + $380.00. Last year my teaser bets were based on $100.00 wagers with a 20% vig and we'll try the same thing this year to keep track of them. 

Week 9: 

Eagles at Cowboys, Pandy's Pick: Eagles - 3. Without Tony Romo the Cowboys simply haven't been very good. Matt Cassel is past his prime and now he'll be wearing a knee brace for this game. I expect the Eagles to apply good pass pressure. The Eagles have a good defense and Dallas is struggling offensively now.  (Eagles won and covered, won)

Falcons at 49ers, Pandy's Pick: Falcons -7. Atlanta started out red hot but they're offense has been prone to mistakes and penalties recently and they've lost two of their last three games. But, San Francisco has all sorts of problems. They traded their best receiver, tight end Vernon Davis. They benched their starting QB and they are going to Blaine Gabbert, who hasn't started a game since 2013. On top of that, the 49ers have key injuries. (Falcons lost)

3 team 10 point teaser for $100, Dolphins +13 vs Bills...Bears +14 vs Chargers....Raiders +14.5 vs Steelers

Week 8: Vikings at Bears, Pandy's Pick: Vikings even. Minnesota has their running game going again and the Bears have struggled against the run. (Vikings won 23-20, win)

Buccaneers at Falcons, Pandy's Pick: Buccaneers + 7 1/2. The Falcons can certainly score with the best of them but their defense is shaky and Tampa has been competitive. (Tampa won 23-20 win)

Giants at Saints, Pandy's Pick: Giants +3. The Saints defense can give up a lot of points and the Giants certainly have the weapons. (Giants lost by 3 points, push)

Packers at Broncos, Pandy's Pick: Packers - 2 1/2. Green Bay has a better offense and both teams have been playing good defense. But Rogers is at the top of his game and Peyton Manning isn't. (loss)

3 team 10 point teaser for $100, Vikings +10....Tampa Bay + 17 1/2....Giants +13

Week 7: Ravens at Cardinal's, Pandy's Pick: Cardinal's -8.5. This line had gone up but I did get 8.5 this morning....Arizona is better offensively and defensively. Baltimore's once great defense has serious problems in the secondary and the offense lacks skill players. Arizona won by 8, loss. 

Jets at New England, Pandy's Pick: Jets +8.5. Unfortunately this line also changed, moving from 9.5 to 8.5, which I got when I bet it Sunday morning, but the Jets are one of the best teams in the league and they may have the answer for those quick short passes that New England is going to throw. I'd imagine that the Patriots will try to take away the Jets running game and crowd the line of scrimmage but the Jets have very good receivers this year. (Jets covered, win)

Falcons at Titans, Pandy's Pick: Falcons -5.5. The Falcons one weakness is their secondary but Tennessee doesn't have the weapons to exploit it and their talented rookie quarterback is not playing this week. I'll lay the points with Atlanta, I got 5.5 on Sunday morning. (Falcons won but did not cover, loss)

Teaser, three team 10 point teaser for $100.00, Jets +18....Pittsburgh +13....Cowboys +13 (covered)

Week 6: Broncos at Browns, Pandy's Pick: Broncos - 3.5. Denver's defense is ranked 1st in the NFL and they have good pass coverage. Cleveland's defense has been disappointing. (ouch, Denver won by 3, loss)

Bengals at Bills, Pandy's Pick: Bengals -3. The Bengals could bounce after a big come from behind win against the Seahawks but they have been ultra consistent so far this year. The Bills starting QB is out for this game. As a Jets fan, I like Rex Ryan, but he's a defensive coach and he meddles too much with the offense. So far the Bills are having the same problems the Jets had when Ryan coached them, they struggle to get first downs and points. Last week the Bills offense couldn't stay on the field and their defense got tired. Now they play a hot team that is good on both offense and defense. I can't see Buffalo getting enough points to win this. (easy cover)

Week 5: 49ers at Giants, Pandy's Pick: Giants -7. The Giants defense is playing very well now that they have their Super Bowl Defensive coordinator back and the offense has plenty of weapons and a quarterback who can make big plays. The offensive line is also playing well. The 49ers appear in shambles.  (loss, Giants won but only by 3 points)

Teaser, $100.00, 3 game 10 point teaser, Bengals +7, Browns + 17, Giants +3 (won, all three times won outright)

Week 4: Cowboys at Saints, Pandy's Pick, Cowboy's +3.5. The Cowboys still have the weapons and offensive line to score, even without Tony Romo. The Saints are struggling. (loss, Cowboys tied the game but lost by 6 in overtime)

Week 3: Buccaneers at Texans, Pandy's Pick: Texans -6.5. The line on this game keeps getting higher, and that's why it's often smart to bet earlier in the week. The Texans should keep the rookie quarterback on his heels in this game. After getting blown out by Tennessee opening week, Tampa Bay beat the Saints in New Orleans last week, but I don't think the Saints are a good team. The Texans played two good teams (Carolina and Kansa City) and although they lost, they were competitive. (Texans won 19-9, covered, win)

Teaser, $100.00, 3 game 10 point teaser, Cincinnati Bengals +12.5, Carolina Panthers + 0.5, Atlanta Falcons +9 (these are the lines I actually got when I made the bet Sunday morning) (all three teams won, teaser covered, win)

Week 2: Rams -3 at Redskins, Pandy's Pick: Rams -3. The Redskins defense played pretty well last week but they lost their best wide receiver and they already had problems scoring. Here they face a very quick defensive line that excels against the run and the pass. On offense, the Rams offense seems improved over lst year. New QB Nick Foles played well for the Rams and his receivers made some clutch catches in traffic. I just think the Rams are a better team. (loss, the Rams still can't seem to play two good games in a row)

Cowboys at Eagles, Pandy's Pick: Eagles -5. This is a good match up for the Eagles because the Cowboys have some key injuries. Dez Bryant, the Cowboys greaet receiver, is out. Two of the Cowboys defensive linemen will also miss this game, one with an injury and the other is on suspension. Last week it was obvious that the Cowboys also miss Demarco Murray, who is now running the ball for the Eagles. The Eagles defense is improving and they can score a lot of points once they get into a rhythm. (loss)

Teaser, 3 game 10 point teaser, Chargers + 13 1/2, Lions + 12 1/2, Texans +13 (won)

Week 1: Jets -3.5 vs Browns, Pandy's pick: Jets -3.5. The Jets made a lot of smart changes during the offseason that should help strengthen their defense, which has been good for years. Offensively, they also added a top wide receiver, and added speed running backs that can catch the ball out of the backfield, something that's been missing for years. The Browns have a solid defense but they have to prove that they can score points, and that may not be easy against a Jets defense that has the potential to be one of the top five in the NFL. (easy cover)

Packers - 6.5 at Bears, Pandy's pick: Packers -6.5. Green Bay is solid all the way around, although they do have to play this game without their top wide receiver. But Chicago lost their all star pass receiver, who is now with the Jets. The Bears defense has a lot to prove and could not stop Green Bay last year. (cover)

Dolphins -4 at Redskins, Pandy's pick: Dolphins -4. Miami figures to keep improving on offense this year and defensively they are solid and they added one of the top defensive linemen in the NFL on the off season. The Redskins don't scare anyone and have a lot to prove. (cover)

 

THE NFL 2014 SEASON

Season record against the spread: 18-13

Teaser record: 3-2 (based on $100 teasers with 20% vig, +$60.00)

Super Bowl Record since posting 14 years ago, (10-4)

 

The Super Bowl: Pandy's Pick, Patriots +1 over Seahawks. I've given out my Super Bowl pick for the past 13 years and I've hit 9 against the spread (9 wins against 4 losses), but I lost the past two years. The last three times the Patriots were in the Super Bowl I picked against them and I won all three bets (twice they lost to the Giants and they beat the Eagles but didn't cover). So my overall record betting against the Patriots both in the regular season and post season is very good. But, this time I'm going with them. (won)

This is an interesting match up for several reasons. First of all, it's unusual that the two teams that made it to the Super Bowl both have sub par wide receivers. Almost every team in the NFL has better wide outs than these two teams. I find that odd. Another interesting point, both of these teams have excellent cornerbacks, the best in the NFL. For the Seahawks, this puts a lot of pressure on their offensive line and their bull of a running back, Marshawn Lynch. 

But we know that coach Bill Belichick likes to take away a team's best weapon. Seattle's best weapon is its running game. Both Lynch and QB Russell Wilson are among the league leaders in rushing yards. There are two things that Belichick will have his defense focus on this Sunday. One is, stop Marshawn Lynch. That means that the Patriots will crowd the line of scrimmage. The other focus will be to keep Wilson in the pocket. Green Bay did a good job of this, and the Patriots will try to do the same thing, although the Patriots don't have as good of a defensive line as Green Bay.

Because New England will crowd the box, they'll essentially try to force the Seahawks and Russell Wilson to beat them through the air. That is the ideal game plan because the Seahawks struggled with their passing game this year. Last year, when they beat the Broncos in the Super Bowl, they had two fast wide receivers but those guys are not on the team anymore. 

So the key to beating the Seahawks is simple: stop them from scoring. When you play the Seahawks, you have to figure that you're not going to get a lot of points. So you have to try to win a low scoring game. The Patriots have a good secondary this year and QB Wilson may have trouble finding open receivers. This year, he often struggled to find open receivers, which is one of the reasons why he runs so much. 

Of course, even if the Patriots do a good job of stopping the Seahawks offense, they still have to score, and they have to avoid interceptions against this lightning quick defense. 

My feeling is that the Patriots are such a well coached team that they'll have a good game plan. To beat the Seahawks, it helps if you go no huddle and the Patriots run the hurry up offense as well as anyone. That stops the Seahawks from substituting, and gives teams a better chance of keeping the Seahawks off balance. But I don't think that scoring will be easy for the Patriots. They're used to moving the ball with short passes, and the Seahawks excel at stopping short passes. And, as I said, Brady doesn't have good wide receivers, so he has to throw to his tight ends, running backs, and slot receivers.

But, the Patriots offense is much more sophisticated than the Seahawks, and has better balance. I think that Seattle will struggle to score and the Patriots will get enough points to win a close, low scoring game. 

 

 

Season record against the spread: 17-13

Teaser record: 3-2 (based on $100 teasers with 20% vig, +$60.00)

Playoffs Championship Sunday: Colts at Patriots, Pandy's Pick, Patriots - 6.5. As much as I'd like to see the Colts upset, my pick is the Patriots. The key to the game is the Colts defense. They have played better lately but when they beat the Broncos last week, Denver's offense just had a terrible game. They dropped 6 passes and Manning was playing hurt. New England will have a strong offensive game plan here and will probably mix it up and keep the Colts defense off blance. The Colts are one dimensional on offense, they have no running game. (won, wow, I got that right)

Playoffs week 2: Panthers at Seahawks, Pandy's Pick: Seahawks -11. This is a lot of points to give for a team that does not score a lot of points, and goes against a tough defense, but one of the Panthers best defensive linemen was injured in practice and is out for the game. The Panthers generally need to play excellent defense and run the ball to win. But Seattle's run defense is actually better this year, ranked 3rd in the league. I just think the Seahawks at home are just too much for the Panthers. (won, Seahawks covered easily)

Colts at Broncos, Pandy's Pick: Broncos -7. This could be a good game if the Colts play big and don't make mistakes, but I'm taking the Broncos to cover for these reasons: 1). The Broncos have a better overall defense. 2). The Broncos have a much better running game, and consequently, a more balanced offense. The Colts are strictly a passing team. The Broncos also do an excellent job of pass protecting for Peyton Manning. (loss)...wow, I still can't believe how poorly Denver's offense performed in this game. This is an offense that was statistically the number 1 ranked offense in history last year! And The Colt defense gave up these point totals in games this year: 51, 42, 42, 31, 30, 28, 27. So, a team that gave up more than 40 points three times held the Broncos to 13 points. Weird. 

Playoffs week 1: Cardinals at Panthers, Pandy's Pick: Panthers -6.5. Neither one of these teams have explosive offenses, but this looks like a good match up for the Panthers. Yes, they have a losing record, but they won their last four games. Last year, Carolina's defense was the second best in the NFL behind Seattle. This year they struggled but in two of their last four wins they held the Saints to 10 points and the Falcons to 3 points, both high-octane offenses. Today they face an inexperienced third string QB and an offense that's struggling. For the Cardinals to win, they need a huge game by their quality defense. But, I think that the Panthers defense is in a better position to dominate the game. (won)

Week 17: Like last week, this week is tricky because not all of the teams have something to play for. I'll try one game. Saints at Bucs, Pandy's Pick: Saints -4.5 The Saints are out of the playoffs but they are a well coached team and I think they'll be ready to play. The Saints have one of the top offenses in the NFL but a weak defense. However, they match up well against a Tampa Bay team that has a very weak offense. The Saints have played better on the road this year than in their domed stadium. If Tampa Bay loses this game, they are assured the No. 1 draft pick. (Saints won but didn't cover, loss)

Week 16: Lions at Bears, Pandy's Pick: Lions - 8.5. The line would be higher, but the Lions have already clinched a playoff berth. However, they still have a chance for a first round bye. The Bears allowed 7 QB sacks against the Saints last week, and now they go to a back up quarterback who hasn't started a game since 2010 and is 1-9 as a starter. (Lions won but didn't cover, loss)

Patriots at Jets, Pandy's Pick: Patriots -10. Normally you'd expect a battle in this division match up but the Patriots aren't the type of team to let up, and they've been improving both offensively and defensively as the season progresses.  Jets offense has been dysfunctional all year. (Patriots won but didn't cover, loss)

Teaser: 3 team 10 point teaser, Lions + 1.5, Patriots even, Packers -2.5 over Bucs. (won)

Week 15: Raiders at Chiefs, Pandy's Pick: Raiders +11. The Raiders are finally playing well, and their pass defense is playing particularly well. They still have to prove that they can play well on the road, but here they meet a slumping Kansas City team that is struggling with its passing game. Kansas City needs the game to stay alive in the playoff picture, but I can see this being close. (loss)

Jets at Titans, Pandy's Pick, Jets -3. Two 2 and 11 teams meet up in a match up of bottom dwellers. But, don't blame the Jets problems on their defense, which is ranked 7th in the NFL. The Jets should be able to move the ball, control the clock, and the game. (won)

Teaser: 3 team 10 point teaser, Raiders at Chiefs, Raiders + 21...49ers at Seahawks, Seahawks even.....Steelers at Falcons, Falcons +13. (won)

Week 14: Seahawks at Eagles, Pandy's Pick: Seahawks +1. Both teams are playing very well but the Eagles quarterback Mark Sanchez could be a liability against this outstanding defense. (won)

Teaser: I like a three team 10 point teaser this week. Ravens at Dolphins, Ravens +13, Chiefs at Cardinals, Cardinals +12...If the line drops to 0 I'll still take Cardinals +10, Seahawks at Eagles, Seahawks +11. (won)

Week 13: Bengals at Bucks, Pandy's Pick: Bengals -4. The Bengals come off two big road wins. This is another big game for them because the are in first place by a thin margin. The Bucs defense is playing better but their problem is scoring. They've lost 5 home games in a row and failed to cover the spread in all of them. (Bengals really messed this up, won by didn't cover, loss)

Raiders at Rams, Pandy's Pick: Rams -6.5. The Rams have trouble winning two in a row, but they lost last week, so maybe that's a good thing. The Raiders pulled off an upset last week but they do not have a good offense and the Rams are a solid defensive team. The Rams also have good receivers and QB Shaun Hill is playing better but must avoid costly mistakes. (The Rams crushed them, won)

Week 12: 

Cardinals at Seahawks, Pandy's Pick: Cardinal's + 7.5. The Seahawks are tough at home but their offense is struggling, especially the passing game, and now they face a top defense that excels against the run. Cardinals are a tough team and this should be a close, low-scoring game. (loss)

Rams at Chargers, Pandy's Pick: Rams + 5.5. The Rams have played some giant games this year but they can't seem to put two big games together. The Chargers are struggling after a hot start. QB Rivers is playing hurt, the offense is in a slump, and today they face a tough and physical defense. San Diego's defense is underrated so we have a potentially low scoring defensive battle here. (won)

Week 11: 

Falcons at Panthers, Pandy's Pick: Falcons -2. Panthers QB Cam Newton was sacked 9 times against the Eagles last week and is hurting. The Panthers offense is in a scoring slump and their once top defense is not having a good year, either. Today they lose one of their better defensive players, rookie tackle Lotulelei, and they are also reshuffling their weak offensive line. The Falcons defense is not very good, but they played a strong game against the Lions two back and won on the road at Tampa Bay last week, so they are playing better. Offensively, the Falcons are strong. (Falcons won by 2, push)

Buccaneeers at Redskins, Pandy's Pick: Redskins - 7.5. These teams usually play each other close, but right now the Redskins are a much better team than Tampa Bay. The Redskins losses have been close and they beat Dallas two back. They are well ranked both offensively and defensively, while Tampa struggles to score points, which is one of the reasons why the only have one win in their last 12 games. (Tampa Bay came up big and upset, loss)

Eagles at Packers, Pandy's Pick: Packers - 5.5. Two high scoring teams meet here but the difference may be at QB. Although Mark Sanchez has played well in his two games with the Eagles, Sanchez is not that good under pressure and the Packers have a good pass rush. Green Bay QB Aaron Rogers has 25 TD passes this year and only 3 interceptions. (Packers blew Eagle out, won)

Steelers at Titans, Pandy's Pick: Steelers -6. The Steelers high flying offense sputtered against the Jets last week but they should be ready for this Monday night game against a team that has a struggling offense lead by a rookie QB who will be minus one of his targets, tight end Delanie Walker, who is out with a concussion. (Steelers only won by 3, loss)

Week 10: 

Broncos at Raiders, Pandy's Pick: Bronco's - 12. Oakland has played some teams tough but the Broncos come off a loss to the Patriots and should be focused here. The Raiders have not done a good job of rushing the passer, and their offense continues to struggle. (won)

Rams at Cardinals, Pandy's Pick: Cardinals -7. The Rams struggle on offense and have to face a tough defense at home this week, and it's the third straight road game for the Rams. (won)

Week 9: 

Eagles at Texans, Pandy's Pick: Texans +2. This is a big home game and a must win game for Houston. The Eagles offensive line is banged up and the Texans should be able to pressure Foles. Houston has enough offensive firepower to score and their defense is playing better. (loss)

Week 8: no picks

Week 7: 

SAINTS at LIONS, Pandy's Pick: Lions - 1.5. The line has dropped steadily this week, probably because of the Sants dominance against the Lions in the past. But this year the Lions are leading the NFL in total defense and have been strong against the run and pass, plus they have 20 sacks. The Lions, who were a high scoring team last year, have not played that well offensively this year, but the Saints defense has given up a lot of points. Both teams will be without one of the top recievers, so defense could be the key to the game. (Lions won by 1 point...some books had the game at 1 point, but...) loss

Teaser, three team 10 points: Texans + 13, Giants + 15, Bears +7. I was orginally going to take the Giants + 7 as a regular pick but the line keeps coming down and 5 points is a bit light, so I'll try them in a teaser. Dallas could bounce off a big win against the champion Seahawks, and the Giants, who were blown out last week, should be trying much harder this week. (loss)

Week 6: I had a tough time finding a game a like this week, so I'm going to try a three team 10 point teaser: Detroit + 12.5, Redskins + 16, Giants +12.5. At some books the Giants are getting 3.5 points, but I'll stick to the Covers.com line as I always do for these picks. 

Week 5: 

FALCONS at GIANTS, Pandy's Pick: Giants - 3.5. The Falcons lost two offensive linemen to season ending injuries last week, and it's tough to patch together a cohesive offensive line in one week. The Giants defensive line is solid and they should pressure a quarterback, Matt Ryan, who has been prone to mistakes the past two years. The Giants secondary has been improving at creating turnovers. On offense, the Giants are figuring out the new west coast offense. (Giants won by 10 points, won)

Week 4: 

SAINTS at COWBOYS, Pandy's Pick: Cowboys +3. The Saints crushed the Cowboys last year but the Saints have lost 5 in a row on the road and they are struggling on defense, while inconsistent so far on offense. The Cowboys can run the ball and may control the clock in this game. I'll take the points. (Dallas won 38-17, won)

GIANTS at REDSKINS, Pandy's Pick: Giants + 3.5. The Giants new west coast style offense finally started to come together last week and it was against a top ranked defense. The Giants defense also played better. This is a division game and these teams play each other tough. The Redskins lost two defensive starters to injuries last week, a cornerback and a safety, and have had a short week to prep the second string d-backs. (Giants won 45-14, won)

Week 3: 

PACKERS at LIONS, Pandy's Pick: Lions -2. Two problems for Green Bay so far this season, their offensive line is not protecting Rogers, and their defensive secondary is not playing well. The Lions play well at home, has a potent passing attack, and their big pass rush will pressure Rogers. (won, Lions won 19-7)

RAVENS at BROWNS, Pandy's Pick: Ravens -1. The Browns have played well so far but not against this type of defense. They can struggle offensively and I expect that to be the case today as they play a sharp Ravens squad and a tough defense that can take control of the game. (won, Ravens won 23-21)

COLTS at JAGUARS, Pandy's Pick: Colts - 7.5. The Colts have played well, losing to the Broncos, and then they made key mistakes, and had bad pentalties called against them last week that cost them the game. The Jaguars played well in the first two quarters of their season but have been pitiful in the last 6 quarters, they have a starting receiver out and an offense that can struggle. (won, Colts won 44-10)

Week 2: 

FALCONS at BENGALS, Pandy's Pick: Bengals - 5.5. The Falcons have some key injures and although their offense did good against the Saints last week, this is a much tougher task against the Bengals big pass rush. (won, Bengals won 24-10)

RAMS at BUCCANEERS, Pandy's Pick: Buccaneers - 5.5. Tampa lost to a talented Carolina team last week but I think that the Rams, who were already limited on offense, are going to struggle without their starting QB Sam Bradford, who is injured. (lost, Rams won 10-17)

BEARS at 49ers, Pandy's Pick: 49ers - 7.5. The Niners open up in their new stadium tonight and they're going to be tough to beat here. The Bears gave up 193 rushing yards to the Bill last week, an ominous sign as they meet one of the NFL's best offensive lines. (lost, Bears won 28-20)

 

THE NFL 2013 Season

After losing the Super Bowl my season record ended 15-19. I started doing this NFL picks three years ago and this was my first losing season. 

 

THE NFL 2012 Season

Note: In 2011 I picked a few games a week (Best Bets) and every post season game and hit a remarkable 61% against the spread.  Last year (2012) my Best Bets went 16-14 and I was 6-3 in the Post Season. All lines are from www.covers.com

 


Super Bowl: 0-1.Best Bets 0-1. Post Season 6-3. Season 16-14. 
Week 20, Playoffs, Recap:
Best Bets 1-1. Playoffs 6-2. Season 16-13
Week 19, Playoffs, Recap: Best Bets 2-1. Playoffs 5-1. Season 15-12. 
Week 18, Playoffs, Recap: Best Bets 3-0. Season 13-11. 
Week 17 Recap: Best Bets 0-1. Season 10-11. Teaser 0-1. Season 6-5. 
Week 16 Recap: Best Bets: 0-2. Season 10-10. Teaser 0-1. Season 6-4.
Week 15 Recap: Best Bets 0-1. Season 10-8. Teaser 0-1. Season 6-3. 
Week 14 Recap: Best Bets 1-0. Season 10-7. Teaser 1-0. Season 6-2. 
Week 13: No picks
Week 12 Recap: Best Bets 1-0. Season 9-7. Teaser 1-0. Season 5-2.
Week 11 Recap: Best Bets 1-0. Season 8-7.
Week 10 Recap: Best Bets 0-1, season 7-7 -$70), all picks 2-2 (season 35-42 (-$820.00), Teaser 0-1, season 4-2 ($160.00)
Week 9 Recap:
Best Bets 1-0 (season 7-6, +$40.00), all picks 2-2 (season 33-40 -$800.00), Teaser none, season 4-1 (+$280.00)
Week 8 Recap: Best Bets 1-0 (season 6-6, -$60.00), all picks 1-1 (season 31-38 -$780.00), Teaser 0-1, season 4-1 (+$280.00)
Week 7 Recap: Best Bets 0-1 (season 5-6 (-$100.00), all picks 2-2 (season 30-37 -$700), Teaser 1-0, season 4-0 (+$400.00)
Week 6 Recap: Best Bets 0-1 (season 5-5, 50%), all picks 28-35 on season. Teaser season 3-0. 
Week 5 Recap: Best Bets 0-2 (season 5-4, 56%), all picks 4-10, season 28-34, Teaser season 2-0. Rough week. I didn't pick a Teaser because it looked so tough and I only had 4 winners against the spread and lost both Best Bets. 
Week 4 Recap: Best Bets: 1-0 (season 5-2, 71%), all picks 2-2 (Season 24-24), Teaser 1-0, (Season 2-0). $100 bets on each, Best Bets +$480.00, All picks -$240.00, Teasers +$200.00. 
Week 3 Recap: Best Bets 1-0 (season 4-2, 67%). All games 10-6 (63%), Teaser 1-0. Season 22-22 (50%). Very good week, 10 wins and 6 losses and I went one for one on Best Bets with an easy win by the Giants. 
Week 2 Recap: Best Bets: 2-0 (season 3-2). All games 6-6 (three pushes don't count towards percentage), season 12-16. I hit both Best Bets this week. 
Week 1 Recap: Best Bets 1-2. All games 6-10. Rough start to the season after week one but last year when I just did Best Bets I started out ice cold then got hot. 

 

Pandy's NFL 2011 Wrap Up

The Giants win over the Patriots pushed my record for the year to 33 wins against 21 losses against the spread for a 61% hit rate, which is an extremely high win percentage for sports betting. 

Millionaire professional sports bettor Billy Walters claims to have a win percentage of 58%. I have picked the Super Bowl on my website for the past 11 years and I've hit 9 Super Bowls against the spread (82%). The Super Bowl is a bit easier to pick than the regular season because during the season teams go through ups and downs and slumps so the best team doesn't always win. 

You have to give the Patriots credit, they are an extremely well coached and well run organization. They are the greatest team of their era and they consistently beat teams that have more talent on the field. In my opinion, the Giants have much more talent than the Patriots, yet the Patriots had the lead with less than 4 minutes to play. The Patriots don't have a top running back or a top wide receiver and their defense is young and inexperienced, yet they only lost 4 games all year. 

I'm disappointed that Aaron Rogers won the MVP award. Rogers is a great player I felt that Eli Manning deserved the MVP award this year. 

PANDY'S SUPER BOWL ANALYSIS

Giants + 3.5 over Patriots (at Indianapolis)

I'm picking the Giants here and I bet early before the line dropped because I think the line will move lower and it would not surprise me to see the Patriots 2 to 2.5 pt favorites on game day. I think you could make a good case that the wrong team is favored, but the odds makers make the line based on how the money will be bet, not on which team is the strongest. A key factor, the Patriots only played two teams with winning records during the season and lost both of those games, including the loss to the Giants in November. 

A few points I'd like to address. First of all, I've read some remarks on boards and from the media about reasons why the Patriots will win that go something like this..."The Giants already beat the Patriots this year and it's hard to beat a great team two times in one season" "Bill Belichick has never lost to a team twice in one season" "Tom Brady wants revenge for when the Giants ruined the Patriots unbeaten season in the 2008 Super Bowl"

Let me say that these "reasons" for liking the Patriots are the reason why most bettors lose money; they are inconsequential and meaningless. Tom Brady is not going to try harder in this game because of any stupid revenge factor. It's the Super Bowl. Both teams are going to be playing their hearts out. Bill Belichick is a great coach but even if its true that one of his teams never lost to the same team twice in one year, that's also meaningless because there's a first time for everything. All this stuff about revenge, it's nonsense. 

There are two types of Super Bowls. A). One team is clearly superior and they win by out playing the other team, because they're better. B). The two teams are very closely matched and one team gets more lucky breaks (turnovers) than the other team and they win. If you look at the championship games from Sunday, both games were as close as you can get. The winning teams had better luck, the Ravens missed a field goal and had the winning touch down knocked out of the receivers hand, and the 49ers punt returner handed the Giants the win with two turnovers. Both games were B games, luck decided the outcome. 

So, in the Super Bowl, if it's a close game all the way, either the Giants or the Patriots will make one or two key mistakes that cost them game. Or, one team will play much better and win the game because they are the better team. I would say that around 70 to 75% of the Super Bowls are "A" games where one team is clearly better than the other team. 

Here's my analysis: First of all, the Giants beat the Patriots 24-20 when they met in November. In that game, which was played in New England, the stats on 1st downs, passing yards, running yards were almost identical. The Giants had 23 first downs, the Patriots had 23 first downs. The Giants ran for 111 yards, the Patriots ran for 106 yards. The Patriots had 82 yards more passing. Eli Manning was not sacked, Brady was sacked twice. 

So the first meeting between these two teams was close. 

A few key changes this time around. 1). The Patriots defense, which is ranked as one of the worst in football, is playing much better now. 2). The Giants defense, which is not well ranked either, is playing much better now. 3). The Giants played without their top rusher, Ahmad Bradshaw in the first matchup. 4). The Giants also played without wide receiver Hakeem Nicks  in the first matchup. Nicks finished the season 12th in the league in receiving despite missing several games. 

The Patriots finished 2nd (behind New Orleans) in total offense. The Giants were 8th in total offense. But to my eyes, the Giants have more speed on offense. The Patriots pile up a lot of yard with short passes. The Giants can strike long with fast wide receivers. 

Neither team put up great defensive stats on the season. The Patriots was ranked 31st, the Giants defense was ranked 27th. But both teams have improved on defense. The Giants defense is really the key to this game. Both teams have potent scoring potential. But the Giants defense has been playing brilliantly in the playoffs. They held the powerful Green Bay offense to 20 points. They tossed a shutout against the Falcons in the 24-2 win, a tremendous defensive achievement. If you look the Giants last 5 games, all wins, the defense has given up an average of 13 points a game. The defensive front is as good as any in football, especially for rushing the quarterback. The secondary, which was terrible at times earlier in the year, has been playing extremely well. 

Of course another key to beating the Patriots is keeping the ball out of Tom Brady's hands. The Giants running game did not do well this year but has picked up steam in the playoffs, averaging 117 yards a game. I actually expect both teams to run the ball quite a bit. Truth is, both of these teams can control the clock, so that may be a toss up. But I think the Giants edge in Team speed, especially on offense, and their overall edge on defense, both in experience and talent, should make them tough to beat. 

 

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Last updated: February 22, 2013.