Pandy's NFL Best Bets and Analysis, 2023
2023 regular season record against the spread: 14-12, plus
$32.00
Money line: 0-1, minus $25.00
Teasers: 18-17, plus $98.00
Parlays: 1-9, minus $67.00
Props:
Overall: plus $38.00
Super Bowl: Chiefs vs 49ers, Pandy's Pick, 49ers -1.5, $22.00. (bet on Saturday, lost)) My short YouTube video analysis is below.
YouTube analysis - https://youtu.be/0en4QH3K2rI?si=NKEX-v1xNZEup7fG
2 way 6 point teaser Chiefs +8.5, over 41, $36.00. (bet on Wednesday, listed here on Wednesday) (won)
Saturday morning the line dropped back down to -1.5 Niners. I actually teased the Chiefs when I got 2.5 points but my pick is the 49ers minus 1.5, so I'm betting both sides, one laying 1.5 points with the Niners and then my teaser, which I found too tempting once the line went up to 2.5 the other day.
For me, this is a tougher game to pick than most Super Bowls. Hopefully it will be a close game. Let's look at the obvious edges for each team - The advantages for the Chiefs A). Quarterback, Mahomes, who already has 2 Super Bowl wins. B). Pass Defense. The Chiefs defense allowed 17.3 points a game during the season and they were even better in the second half, so their ace defensive coach Spagnola knows how to make adjustments. And, they have outstanding cornerbacks.
The advantages for the 49ers. A). Offense. The 49ers are in the top 4 in every offensive category and outside of the starting QBs, the 49ers have the better offensive playmakers with superstar running back Christian McCaffrey, receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk and TE George Kittle.
Even though the Chiefs have the better overall defense, during the regular season, the 49ers only allowed 17.5 points a game, which is outstanding. Both of these defenses have shown some vulnerability against a good running attack and both are good at moving the chains.
Quarterback play is interesting because Brock Purdy has played very well but he doesn't have a particulary strong arm. However, most of the time he makes good decisions and last week he ran the ball three times and those runs really helped seal the win for the Niners. Purdy showed good instincts and quick decision making. And even though the Chiefs have the edge with future Hall of Fame quarterback Patrick Mahomes, Brock Purdy has the highest passer rating in the NFL in 2023.
One of the most interesting aspects of this game is how the Niners' play defense. To me, if they double-cover the Chiefs young receiver Rashee Rice, who is talented, and do a good job of covering Chiefs tight end Kelce, keeping him from having a sensational game, they''ll win. And the Niners do have a very good group of linebackers to work on covering Travis Kelce.
Conference Weekend: Chiefs at Ravens, Pandy's Pick, Ravens -3.5, $50.00. Depending on which book you use, the line has moved to either -4 or -4.5, but I bet earlier in the week and got -3.5. I loved the Chiefs last week but that was because the Bills had so many injuries on defense. And I was surprised because even though the Chiefs covered and I won my bets, the Chiefs defense was bad against the run for the first three quarters. The Ravens have the most rushing yards per game in the NFL. To be honest, although these two teams are the two best defenses in terms of points allowed, their strength is their passing defense. So I think you'll see both teams handing off a lot. Another factor is the injuries. The Ravens come into this game in pretty good shape. The Chiefs had a tough battle with the Bills last week and four of their best players came out of that game. Right now, All Pro offensive lineman Joe Thuney is definitely not playing. The Ravens are a hard hitting team and that comes into play in a game like this. They also have a secondary that can force turnovers. In the regular season, the Ravens were tied for second in the NFL with 18 interceptions. The Chiefs had 8 interceptions. The Ravens also lead the NFL with 60 quarterback sacks. I think the Ravens are going to be able run the ball and I think their defense will play a big game. (lost)
Lions at 49ers - I've decided to stick with my original Teaser wager for this game. If the Lions play their best and don't make too many mistakes, I think it could be a close game. But, the 49ers are certainly capable of covering. I think the key to the game for the Lions is that they have to try to pressure Brock Purdy. If Purdy doesn't get sacked a few times, it's hard to see the Lions winning. The 49ers are favored by 7 to 7.5 points. The weather looks good, so the 49ers QB Brock Purdy might play better than he did last week. In that win, Purdy made several bad passes but it was rainy the whole game and the ball was wet and that seemed to be bothering him. I do think that the Lions have an advantage at quarterback. Purdy does a fine job, he is somewhat mobile, and he certainly has good stats. But, he has his limitations. Physically, he's not a powerful guy and he doesn't have a strong arm. I think he may be vulnerable if he gets hit a lot, so the 49ers have to protect him. The Lions don't have a top pass rushing defensive line but they could offset that by blitzing. Goff is a tall guy and he has a strong arm. Both of these teams have top-tier offenses. The key for the Lions is to run the ball. The 49ers have some big name players on their defensive line and during the season they were ranked third in rushing defense, but the Packers ran the ball well against them last week and the Lions have two good running backs and a good offensive line. I think the 49ers rushing defense stats are probably a bit misleading because they jumped out to a lead many times and teams had to throw the ball. The Lions defense was 2nd in the NFL in stopping the run, but they're vulnerable to good passing attack.
3 way 10 point Teaser, Ravens +6.5...Lions +17...Lions/49ers over 41, $27.00. (lost)
Divisional Weekend: Chiefs at Bills, Pandy's Pick, Chiefs +3, $50.00. I just checked the latest injury report on Friday afternoon, and I went to two of the betting sites I use and one has the Chiefs +3, so I took the 3 points. I took 12.5 on my teaser from another book. I did a YouTube video on this game Saturday. Buffalo is a tough place to play, so that is in the Bills favor. On paper, these teams match up well. Both teams have good defenses. The Bills finished the season 4th in points allowed per game and 9th in yards per game. The Chiefs were second in yards per game and second in points per game. Offensively, the Bills finished the season ranked 4th in yards per game and the Chiefs were ranked 9th in yards per game. However, the Chiefs struggled in the Red Zone - they averaged 21.8 points per game (15th) while the Bills were 6th in points scored with 26.5 points per game. Both teams have quarterbacks who can make sensational plays, either passing or running. But the injuries have been very tough on the Bills, especially on defense. They suffered a few more injuries last week. Players who have been ruled out for the Bills, starting cornerback Christian Benford, safety Taylor Rapp, linebacker Baylon Spector, and wide receiver Gabe Davis, who is second on the team in receiving yards. The punter Sam Martin is questionable as are two other cornerbacks and their best tackler, linebacker Terrel Bernard. These injuries on defense are tough because, besides the fact that the Bills have to use players who are second or third on the depth chart, it may also make it tough to substitute and rotate players on defense. If the Chiefs can mount a running game and have a few long drives, I think you could see the Bills defense get tired in the second half. I also think that the Chiefs are starting to play better on offense. Their rookie wide receiver Rashee Rice, had 13 receptions for 257 yards in his last two games. And the Chiefs still have some fast players on offense. Their problems on offense this year hasn't been speed, it's been dropped passes and poor execution at times. But the Chiefs offense executed better in their playoff win against the Dolphins last week. Both teams are well coached but I've always like the Chiefs defensive coach, Spagnola, and this year he has a talented group to work with. The Chiefs have a very good secondary. Another thing to consider, the Chiefs with Mahomes at QB, are 10-1 against the spread in eleven road games where they were the betting underdog. They've played very well on the road with Mahomes at quarterback. (won)
3 Team 10 point teaser, Ravens +0.5...49ers even...Chiefs +12.5, $22.00. (won)
Wild Card Weekend: Browns at Texans, Pandy's Pick, Browns money line -148, $25.00. The Browns got here with defense but their offense has also been clicking since Joe Flacco took over at quarterback. The Texans defense has done a good job in the red zone, and they have a talented rookie quarterback, C.J. Stroud, who is having a terrific season but he's going to have to have a great game if they're going to upset the Browns, who are a solid team that played a tougher schedule. (lost)
2 team 6 point teaser, Dolphins at Chiefs, Eagles at Buccaneers...Chiefs +2, Buccaneers +9, $22.00. With the Dolphins injuries, they're offensive isn't explosive as it was most of the year. And here they have to travel to Kansas City for a night game with the advanced weather forecast calling for temperatures below 10 degrees. That should favor the Chiefs and their solid defense, which is one of the best in the NFL in several categories. In the Eagles/Bucs game, the Eagles defense has been one of the worst in the NFL over the last 7 games. On paper, the Eagles have the better offensive players but Tampa Bay has a top defensive coordinator, Todd Bowles, and he likes to blitz alot, which seems to work pretty well against this Eagles team. The Buccaneers aren't world beaters but I don't see how you can lay points on a team that's struggling as much as the Eagles are, and it's not like Tampa Bay doesn't have any talented players. (won)
3 team 10 point teaser, Browns +8...Chiefs +5...Buccaneers +13, $26.00. (lost)
3 team money line parlay, Browns, Chiefs, Buccaneers, $10.00. (lost)
Week 18: Early pick, Buccaneers at Panthers, Pandy's Pick, Buccaneers -4, $37.00. I saw -5 on this Tuesday and decided to take it but I bet more when the line dropped to -4 . Tampa Bay needs the name. The Panthers are coming off a dismal performance where they where shut out by Jacksonville, and the Panthers have the worst team stats in the NFL. (won)
Bears at Packers, Pandy's Pick, Bears +3, $23.00. This is an interesting game. The Packers need to win to secure a playoff spot, and they're at home. But the Bears have been playing very well, winning 4 of their last 5 games with the lone loss a solid effort against the Browns. The Bears defense is ranked 12th overall on the year but in the second half of the year, their defense has been one of the top 5 in the NFL. Their offense has also improved. The Packers defense, on the other hand, has been the opposite. They were solid in the first half of the season but down the stretch, they started to give up a lot of yards. The Carolina Panthers got almost 400 yards against them. The Bears are not going to lay down. Bears quarterback Justin Fields has come on strong this year and he's playing for a contract, for either The Bears, or another team. I think the Bears are more talented overall, especially on defense, and can upset. (lost)
Browns at Bengals, Pandy's Pick, Bengals -7, $27.00. The Browns are resting their top players and using a quarterback from their practice squad. (won)
Money line parlay, Cowboys, Bills, Bengals, Jaguars, Lions, Buccaneers, $10.00 to win $74.00. (lost)
3 Team 10 point teaser, Cowboys -3...Bengals +3...Bears +13, $27.00. (won)
Week 17: 3 Team 10 point teaser, Bears +7.5...Texans +6...Rams +3.5, $33.00. (won)
Money line parlay, Bills, Rams, Texans, 49ers, Eagles, $22.00. (lost)
Week 16: Bengals at Steelers, Pandy's Pick, Bengals -3, $22.00. I should have bet this when it was -2 but that's my fault for procrastinating. The Bengals are hot, they lost to the Steelers four games back but since then they have won three in a row and they beat three solid teams that had winning records. The Steelers have lost three games in a row and two of those games were against two of the worst teams in the NFL. The Steelers got blown out by the Colts last week, the Bengals blew the Colts out two weeks ago. The Steelers are a one-dimensional team. They have a terrible offense, but a very good defense. But, they have several key defensive players out. Their two best safeties are unable to play, one because of injuries, the other is suspended for the rest of the season (he is appealing). The have other key injuries including their starting QB. Today they will go with their third string QB, Mason Rudolph, and he's only played a few downs in the last two seasons. The problem for the Steelers is that if they can't get first downs, their defense, which is already thinned by injuries, can get worn down. The Bengals have one key injury in this game, their fast receiver Ja'Marr Chase is out for this game. But QB Jake Browning has been hot and he has shown that he can spread the ball around and find other receivers. The Bengals defense has struggled at times but they've been playing better and they should have a good game against this weak Steeler defense. (lost)
Saints at Rams on Thursday night, Pandy's Pick, Rams -3.5, $20.00. The Saints have finally figured out how to score points, despite the fact that receiver Michael Thomas is still on injured reserve, and they have a solid defense. But the Rams have more weapons and veteran quarterback Matthew Stafford has been hot since returning from an injury. The Saints best cornerback is also still on IR. From a coaching perspective, the Rams also have an advantage, and overall they've played a somewhat tougher schedule. I got this line of -3.5 on Wednesday and took it but some places have it at 4. (won)
3 Team 10 point teaser, Bengals +8...Bills -1.5...Chiefs 0, $26.00. (lost)
3 Team 10 point teaser, Colts +13...Seahawks +7...Chiefs -0.5, $40.00. (lost)
Week 15: I may have more picks over the weekend. Jets at Dolphins, Pandy's Pick, Jets +9.5, $15.00. I was tempted to bet the Jets with 8.5 points but I just got 9.5 so I took it. The Dolphins do have a talented offense but Tyrek Hill doesn't look to be 100% and that hurt them last week. The Jets got a confidence boost last week and they showed that they're not tanking. (lost)
3 Team 10 point teaser, Bengals +7...Colts +8.5...49ers -2.5, $20.00. (won)
3 Team 10 point teaser, Jets +19.5...Colts +8.5...Cowboys +12, $20.00. (lost)
3 team Money Line parlay, Rams, 49ers, Chiefs, $22.00. (won)
Week 14: Colts at Bengals, Pandy's Pick, Bengals 2.5, $24.00. My analysis leans towards the Bengals here because of the schedules. The Colts have been hot, winning their last 4, all with Gardner Minshew at QB. All four of the teams they beat have losing records. The Bengals have had a much tougher schedule. In their last 7 games, they have played 7 teams that have a winning record and all of those teams have a shot at the playoffs. And they beat Jacksonville (last week), plus in that stretch they beat the 49ers, the Bills, and the Seahawks. The big questions for the Bengals was how they were going to do after their star QB Joe Burrow got injured, but backup Jake Browning has played exceptionally well the last two weeks. I also think the injury report favors the Bengals here as the Colts have some key players out in their secondary. The Bengals have some fast players they can use to exploit the secondary. (won)
Three team 10 point teaser, Browns +8...Bengals +7.5...Vikings +7, $22.00. (won)
Week 13: Lions at Saints, Pandy's Pick, Lions -4, $20.00. The Saints have struggled in the Red Zone and they've had a soft schedule. The Lions have the weapons to score against this solid defense. (won)
Chargers at Patriots, Pandy's Pick, Chargers -5.5, $20.00. The Patriots offense is almost as bad as the Jets. The Chargers might be without their best receiver but they can rush the passer and they have a big edge at quarterback in this game, which is a game they really need to win to stay in the playoff picture. (won)
Week 12: 3 Team 10 point teaser, Cowboys -3...Chiefs +1...Ravens +6.5, $27.00. (won)
3 Team 10 point teaser, Steelers +7.5...Browns +11.5...Jacksonville +8.6, $25.00. (lost)
Week 11: 3 Team 10 point teaser, Browns +8...Dolphins -4...Cowboys even, $33.00 to win $25.00. (won)
3 Team 10 point teaser, Cowboys even...49ers -3.5...Rams +8.5, $33.00 to win $25.00. (won)
Week 10: Texans at Bengals, Pandy's Pick, Lions at Chargers, Pandy's Pick, Lions -3, $50.00. The Lions come off a bye week and face a Chargers team that is struggling offensively. Injuries have hurt and QB Justin Herbert has one solid receiver to throw to Keenan Allen, but he's not a long threat. The Chargers defense has a good defensive line but their secondary is not that good and the Chargers defense is ranked 30th. Detroit has their offensive weapons, a top offensive line, and a defense that's ranked 5th in the NFL in yards per game. (push)
3 Team 10 point teaser, Lions +7...Jets +10...Broncos +17, $26.00. (won)
Week 9: Vikings at Falcons, Pandy's Pick, Falcons -4, $12.00. I don't have tremendous confidence in the Falcons, simply because they haven't had the toughest schedule. But the Vikings have lost starting QB Kirk Cousins and their star receiver Justin Jefferson is still out with a hamstring injury. This means that 5th round rookie QB Jaren Hall will start. Rookie quarterbacks making their NFL debut on the road have produced 3 wins and 15 losses. The Falcons defense is good at pressuring, which is a tough match up for this rookie quarterback. (lost)
Giants at Raiders, Pandy's PIck, Giants +1.5, $12.00. The Raiders made a controversial coaching change this week and will also start a rookie quarterback, Aidan O'Connell. The Giants, who have an even worse offense than the Jets, are getting starting quarterback Daniel Jones back. The Giants have had a much tougher schedule than the Raiders. For instance, the Giants have played six teams with winning records, the Cowboys, 49ers, Dolphins, Bills, Seahawks, and Jets. The Raiders have played two teams with winning records, the Bills and the Lions. Aidan O'Connell might not be much of a drop off from Jimmy Garappolo, who hasn't played well for the Raiders. But part of the problem is the Raiders offense, which has only scored more than 20 points once this season, and that was 21 points against the Patriots. The Giants defense has come around after a slow start and they will be blitzing the rookie quarterback. This should be a low scoring game but the Giants can upset. (lost)
3 Team 10 Point Teaser, Saints -8.5...Browns -2.5...Commanders/Patriots under 51, $35.00. (won)
Week 8: Eagles at Commanders, Pandy's Pick, Eagles -7, $27.00. The Eagles barely beat the Commanders in a high scoring overtime game in week 4, but the Commanders have been doing a horrible job of protecting their quarterback, and the Eagles offense is starting to click. I don't see this being a close game. (push)
3 Team 10 point teaser, Rams +16.5...Ravens +0.5...Bengals +15.5, $30.00 (lost)
3 Team 10 point teaser, Falcons/Titans under 45.5...Rams +16.5...Eagles +3, $22.00. (lost)
2 Team 6 point teaser, Chiefs -1...Eagles -1, $27.00. (lost)
Week 7: Browns at Colts, Pandy's Pick, Browns -3.5, $30.00. The Browns crushing defense should be enough here in a game in which both teams may be using their back up quarterbacks. (lost)
Jaguars at Saints, Pandy's Pick, Saints -2.5, $14.00. The line just jumped from 2 to 2.5 as I was about to bet, but I did get the teaser in at 2. This is a tricky game because both of these teams can move the ball but struggle in the Red Zone. But, the Saints defense is so good and they've been one of the best defenses in the NFL for several years now, so this is a cohesive unit that plays well together. Trevor Lawrence has a strained knee but is supposedly going to start and probably wear some sort of knee brace. I think that will limit is ability to run and that's part of his game. Derek Carr, on the other hand, has not been able to get the Saints into the end zone, but he seems to be getting to know these receivers better. I think he can do enough to get the job done but the Saints defense is the key to this game. (lost)
3 Team 10 point teaser, Saints +8...Raiders +7.5...Buccaneers +7.5, $24.00. (lost)
3 Team 10 point teaser, Browns +6.5...Bills +2.5...Buccaneers +7.5, $27.00. (lost)
3 Team 10 point teaser, Raiders/Bears under 48...Browns/Colts under 51...Dolphins/Eagles over 41.5, $17.00. (lost)
Week 6: Saints at Texans, Pandy's Pick, Saints -1.5 for $34.00. The New Orleans Saints had a very good defense last year and this year they have only allowed 6 TDs through five games. The Saints once high-powered offense hasn't been proficient but they showed signs of progress against the Patriots last week and they still have some skilled offensive players like WR Michael Thomas, and all purpose back Alvin Kamara. Quarterback Derek Carr hasn't been that sharp for his new team but he's certainly capable and may be turning things around after a solid performance last week. The Texans have played better than expectations, they have a promising rookie QB who is playing well, and a good passing game. But I think the Saints defense can cause problems for them, and the Saints offense may have finally turned a corner. (lost)
3 Team 10 point teaser, Chiefs -1, Seahawks +13, Chargers +12, $27.00. (won)
3 Team 10 point teaser, 49ers +0.5, Saints +8.5, Dolphins -4.5, $27.00. (lost)
6 Team Money line parlay, Chiefs, Dolphins, Bills, Colts, 49ers, Patriots, $4.00 to win $44.00. (lost)
Week 5: First of all, get this out of the way, I made a mistake with the Browns last week. No one on the NFL network or other shows were talking about Deshaun Watson's injury. He was listed as questionable with a shoulder injury. I did check the injury report but I didn't notice it. That's why you have to check injury reports, especially with key players like the starting quarterback. I could have canceled my bets. The Browns went with a rookie QB and that was the end of those bets on the Browns.
Jets at Broncos, Pandy's Pick, Jets +2.5, $22.00Jets QB Zach Wilson finally seemed to get his act together last week and now gets to face the league's statistically worse defense. The Jets have had a much tougher schedule than the Broncos. The Jets have played three of the best teams in the NFL, and four good defensive teams (Bills, Cowboys, Patriots, Chiefs), and only one of the games (against the Cowboys) wasn't close. The Broncos have had a soft schedule so far, as they've only had to play one team with a winning record and they gave up 70 points to them (Dolphins). (won)
Texans at Falcons, Pandy's Pick, Texans +2, $20.00. These are two teams going in different directions. The Falcons, behind good defensive play, won their first two starts but they've only scored a total of 13 points in their last two games, losing to Detroit and Jacksonville. The Texans lost their first two games but won their last two games against Jacksonville and Pittsburgh, scoring a total of 67 points while only allowing 23. One of the big differences is the quarterback play. Rookie QB C. J. Stroud is one of only two NFL quarterbacks (the other is Brock Purdy from the 49ers) who hasn't thrown an interception this year and the Texans offense has come on strongly in the last two games. The Falcons QB, Desmond Ridder, has been sacked 16 times and has struggled in the Red Zone, as the Falcons have the lowest ranked passing offense in the NFL (yes, even worse than the Jets and Giants). The Falcons probably have a slightly better defense than the Texans, but the Texans are a top 10 offense and that can be the difference in this game. The Texans look like a good teaser team as well. (lost)
3 Team 10 point Teaser, Texans +12...Jets +12.5...Packers +12.5, $33.00. (won)
3 Team 10 point Teaser, Lions +0.5...Texans +12...Colts +12.5, $24.00. (won)
3 Team 10 point Teaser, Lions +0.5...Patriots +8.5...Packers +12.5, $22.00. (lost)
Week 4: Lions at Packers, Pandy's Pick, Lions -2, $22.00. The Lions have a solid offensive line, even with the injuries, and talented playmakers. If they can put together some sort of respectable defense, they can be a solid playoff contender. So far this year their defense has played well in two of their three games which included beating the Chiefs. They did allow 37 points (in an overtime game) to the Seahawks, but Seattle has a potent offense. Here they face a Packers team that has some key injuries and hasn't been that sharp so far on offense. The Packers might get back their best running back and best receiver tonight but there are still questions on how much they'll play. And there are other key injuries. (won)
Vikings at Panthers, Pandy's Pick, Vikings -4, $22.00. Both of these teams are struggling at 0-3 but the Vikings offense is much better than the Panthers. The Vikings are always competitive and played three good teams this year. I think their offense makes the difference. (won)
Commanders at Eagles, Pandy's Pick, Eagles -8.5, $22.00. The Commanders aren't terrible but I think they could have problems scoring against this solid Eagles defense. The Eagles also have a big advantage at quarterback and on offense in general. (lost)
Ravens at Browns, Pandy's Pick, Browns -2.5, $33.00. The Browns leading NFL defense has only allowed 491 yards and 21 first downs. They haven't faced any top offenses yet, but the Ravens offense isn't high-octane, either. Offensively, these teams have similar stats and both teams beat the Bengals, although the Browns dominated the Bengals and the Ravens eked out a win. The Ravens have four starters including two wide receivers and two starting defensive backs out with injuries, which is a tall task playing Cleveland team that is relatively healthy, despite losing their star running back, Nick Chubb. Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson hasn't been the star that he once was but he comes off an improved game. This game may also be a good under bet in teasers. (lost)
2 team 7 point teaser, Raiders at Chargers, Ravens at Browns, Pandy's Pick, Browns +4.5 and Chargers +0.5, $12.00. (lost)
Money Line parlay, Browns, Chargers, Jaguars, Vikings, Eagles, $10.00 to win $55.00. (lost)
Money line parlay, Browns, Chargers, Vikings, $5.00 to win $17.00. (lost)
Week 3: Giants at 49ers, Pandy's Pick, 49ers - 10, $22.00. The Giants will play without their star running back, Saquon Barkley, this week. They used him well both as a runner and a passing threat and decoy in the second half last week. The Giants have still have to prove that they can consistently get first downs and put points on the board. This is a tough match up on the west coast against the 49ers, who are one of the best all around teams in the NFL. (won)
Saints at Packers, Pandy's Pick, Packers -1, $22.00. The Saints defense has played well again so far this year but the Saints don't have the offense like they had a few years ago and so far this year the Saints offense looks out of sync. The Packers defense hasn't been that good but they can get after the passer and their offense has moved the ball well. I like the Packers to cover at home. (push)
Falcons at Lions, Pandy's Pick, Lions -3, $20.00. The Falcons are off to a great start with 2 wins and they come into Detroit to face a defense that's struggling. I just don't like the Falcons passing game. Their quarterback, Desmond Ridder, is on a win streak of 4 games as a starting quarterback, but he's thrown a number of terrible passes that should have been intercepted but were dropped. The Falcons have run the ball well, however, and they'll try to do that in this game. If the Lions have to try to slow down the Falcons running game and make Ridder beat them. They also have to pressure Ridder, which they should be able to do. I just think that the Lions have too much offensive fire power and they have a clear advantage at the quarterback position in this game. (won)
Panthers at Seahawks, Pandy's Pick, Seahawks -5, $15.00. Bryce Young, the Panthers No. 1 draft pick QB, is out for this game and veteran Andy Dalton will be starting. That's probably an advantage for the Panthers at this point, because Young hasn't looked that good yet and is still developing. The Panthers strength is their defense, but two of their best defensive backs are out for this game. That's going to put a lot of pressure on their defense because the Seahawks have a fast offense with very talented receivers. The problem for the Seahawks has been their defense, which is off to a bad start. But they should look better against this Carolina offense, which doesn't have a lot of firepower. (won)
3 Team 10 point teaser, 49ers even, Patriots +7.5, Rams +12.5, $22.00. (won)
3 team 10 point teaser, Vikings +11, Cowboys -1.5, 49ers even, $15.00. (lost)
3 team 10 point teaser, Seahawks +5, Lions +6.5, Vikings +10, $20.00. (won)
Eagles at Buccaneers, Rams at Bengals, 2 team money line parlay, Buccaneeers and Rams, $10.00 to win $52.35. (lost)
7 team money line parlay, 49ers, Jaguars, Seahawks, Chiefs, Cowboys, Rams, Buccaneers, $2.00 to win $30.94. (lost)
5 team money line parlay, 49ers, Jaguars, Seahawks, Chiefs, Cowboys, $14.00 to win $23.00. (lost)
Week 2: Early pick, Thursday, September 14, Vikings at Eagles, Pandy's Pick, Over 49, $25.00. The Eagles have a good pass rush but I was a little surprised at how well the Patriots moved the ball in the second half against the Eagles Sunday. There are two key defensive injuries on the Eagles, both in the secondary. With a short week and two sharp quarterbacks, I think this one has a good chance to go over. (won)
Chargers -2.5 at Titans, Pandy's Pick, Chargers -2.5, $27.00. The Chargers ran the ball a lot in their season opener but although the Titans are good against the run, their problem area is the secondary. The injury report this week also favors The Chargers in this game. (lost)
3 Team 10 point teaser, Giants vs Cardinals, Packers at Falcons, Commanders at Broncos, Pandy's Pick, Giants +6, Packers +13, Broncos +6.5, $34.00. (won)
3 Team 10 point teaser, Chargers at Titans, Colts at Texans, Saints at Panthers, Pandy's Pick, Chargers +7.5, Colts +11, Saints +7, $40.00. (won)
10 point Teaser, Colts at Texans, Pandy's Pick, Colts +11 and under 49 1/2, $20.00...you get two rookie quarterbacks here but the Texans have some key injuries on the offensive line. (lost)
Week 1: No picks
Pandy's NFL Best Bets and NFL Analysis, 2022
2022 record against the spread: 5-8 minus $156.00
Teasers: 17-8, plus $204.00
Parlays: 8-8, plus $62.00
Props: 0-1, minus $20.00
Overall: plus $90.00
Super Bowl and NFL season wrap up: I ended up with a $90.00 profit on my NFL plays. The Super Bowl was a very good game. The holding call at the end looked like a terrible call but the Eagles defender admitted that he did grab the player's jersey. I didn't like the call because the pass was not close and it didn't look like the hold made a difference. But, the Chiefs did what I figured they'd do, Patrick Mahomes played great and was able to find various different targets. He's a master at spreading the ball around and finding the open receiver. The Eagles offense played a terrific game. The fumble by Jalen Hurts (non-contact fumble) that resulted in an easy TD was a huge play in the game. Hurts played extremely well except for that mishap, but it was a big one. I also thought that the Chiefs offensive line played a monster game against a team that had 70 sacks during the regular season, which was the third highest in NFL history. The Chiefs offense dominated the Eagles defense in the second half. As I pointed out in my analysis, the NFC appeared weaker than the AFC and that did seem to show because the Eagles defense did not look like great in the Super Bowl.
Super Bowl Sunday: Pandy's Pick, Chiefs +1.5, $25.00. Note: The final injury report was good for both teams. That doesn't mean that everyone is at 100%, but the starters all practiced Friday. The only regular who might miss the game is the Eagles punt returner. (won)
I think that between superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs outstanding coaching staff, they'll find a way to win. This is an interesting match up and should be a close game.
The Eagles defense is ranked 2nd and their offense is ranked 3rd. And they have the Number 1 pass defense. So the Eagles are a very well balanced team. One of the biggest keys to the game is the Eagles 70 regular season QB sacks, which makes them one of the top 5 sack teams in NFL history. But Patrick Mahomes was only sacked 26 times during the regular season, while Jalen Hurts was sacked 38 times. And the Chiefs had 55 sacks, second best in the NFL, so it's not like they can't apply pressure.
The Chiefs have the top ranked offense in the NFL in three categories, yards, passing, and scoring. That's pretty amazing when you compare this Chiefs team from the 2019 Super Bowl Champions. That team had Tyrek Hill, LeSean McCoy, Sammy Watkins, three fast offensive players, plus Travis Kelce. Of course, they still have Travis Kelce, who is one of the greatest tight ends in NFL history. The fact that the Chiefs had the top scoring offense in the NFL is a testament to their superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes, and their excellent coaching staff. Mahomes excels at finding the open receiver and he spreads the ball around. For someone who is often scrambling or throwing on the run, it's amazing how he can see the field so well and find someone to throw to, even under pressure.
Last year it looked like Eagles QB Jalen Hurts, who is a very strong runner, wasn't that good of a passer. But this year his passing has improved sharply. Hurts completed 66% of his passes with 22 TDS and only 6 interceptions. He has some sort of shoulder injury and he did look off his best passing form in his last two games, but he's had two weeks to rest it. Patrick Mahomes threw 41 TDS (with 12 interceptions), but the Chiefs don't have the running game like the Eagles do so they have to throw more. The Eagles also have two very good wide receivers, who will be covered by rookie cornerbacks. My feeling though is that young players in the Chiefs secondary are much improved and they played very well against the Bengals.
In terms of schedule, the Chiefs played in a tougher division in the AFC. The Chiefs lost to the Buffalo Bills 20-24 in week 6, then beat the 49ers 44-23 in week 7. They lost to the Bengals 24-27 in week 13. And then they beat the Bengals in the Conference game. The best team the Eagles played during the regular season was the Cowboys, and they split their two games with them. Even though the Eagles appeared to have a softer schedule than the Chiefs, the Eagles did play 10 games against teams that made the playoffs. The Eagles had a pretty easy path to the Super Bowl, beating a completely overmatched Giants team that got to the playoffs on the back (and legs) of their quarterback Daniel Jones, who ran for key first downs when his receivers couldn't get open. Then the Eagles beat the 49ers, who had no quarterback for most of the game. They were tied 7-7 when both 49ers quarterbacks left the game with injuries, and at that point, the Niners had no shot.
Conference Day: I've been on a pretty good roll lately and I really liked the Eagles over the Giants last week, but, I'm going to pass on today's games. Injuries are a factor in the AFC game. The Bengals have three of their starting offensive linemen out, and for the Chiefs, QB Patrick Mahomes has a high ankle sprain, which should limit his running, and he can be a very effective runner. Of course, the Bengals had the worst pass protection in the NFL last year but made the Super Bowl. However, I think that the Chiefs will blitz and make some key defensive sacks in this game. Joe Burrow and the Bengals have beaten the Chiefs the last three times they played including in last year's conference game, but my gut feeling is that the Chiefs will prevail this time. But I'm watching, not betting. I don't see an edge in these lines, even with teasers.
Divisional weekend: Giants at Eagles, Pandy's Pick, Eagles -7.5, $30.00. The Divisional Playoff weekend is usually tougher to handicap than the Wild Card, and this year is no exception. My main pick is the Eagles over the Giants. The Giants lost 5 of their last 8 games and one of them was a blowout 48-22 defeat to the Eagles. They tied Washington and the two wins were against the 4-12 Colts and the 8-8 Washington Commanders. In the last week of the season, the Giants rested their starters and the Eagles, who were playing for 1st seed, only won 22-16. But if you watched that game, the Eagles were winning 19-3 in the 4th quarter and were really never in doubt. I think that the Eagles were not really fully gassed up for that game. The Giants are a well coached team but they do have some issues that have to be corrected next year if they're going to stay a playoff team. The Giants run defense in particular is poorly ranked at 27th and their passing offense is ranked 26th. Quarterback Daniel Jones has kept the Giants in a lot of games with his running because the Giants receivers struggle to get open. Isiah Hodgins, their tall wide receiver, has helped lately but the Eagles have the 2nd ranked defense overall and the number 1 ranked pass defense. The Eagles defense leads the NFL in sacks with 70 and also has 17 interceptions. Offensively, the Eagles have two top receivers and they've scored 59 touchdowns, second only to the potent Kansas City Chiefs offense (61). (won)
Two team money line parlay, Chiefs and Eagles, $27.00. (won)
Two team 6 point teaser, Chiefs -3.5 and Eagles -1.5, $20.00. (won)
Wild Card Weekend: Chargers at Jacksonville, Pandy's Pick, Chargers -2, $25.00. The Jaguars came on strong winning their last 5 games of the season to make the playoffs. But, the Jaguars did have a soft schedule. In their last three games, they beat the Titans, Texans, and Jets, the three worst offenses in the NFL, and all three teams had been slumping, the Titans lost their last 7 games, the Texans only had 3 wins all year, and the Jets lost their last 6 games. Prior to that, the Jaguars pass defense was not that good and ended the year with a ranking of 28th in the NFL. The Chargers pass defense is 7th in the NFL. Both young quarterbacks are good but Justin Herbert should be firing against the weaker defense here. (loss)
10 point three team teaser, Seahawks at 49ers, Chargers at Jacksonville, Dolphins at Bills, 49ers + half point, Chargers +8, Bills -3.5, $20.00. (loss)
10 point three team teaser, Ravens at Bengals, Seahawks at 49ers, Giants at Vikings, Bengals +1.5, 49ers + half point, Giants +13, $20.00. (won)
Money line parlay, Bills, Bengals, 49ers, $30.00. (won)
Week 18: Ravens at Bengals, Cardinals at 49ers, Giants at Eagles, Three way money line parlay, Bengals, 49ers, Eagles, $50.00. (won $24.00 profit)
Week 17: These late season games can be tricky because some of the teams have already clinched their playoff spot and might not play motivated. I'm going conservatively here with a three game 10 point teaser, Dolphins at Patriots, Steelers at Ravens, Broncos at Chiefs, Dolphins +12.5...Steelers +11.5...Chiefs -2.5, $35.00. (won)
Week 16: Money line parlay, Lions at Panthers, Bengals at Patriots, Seahawks at Chiefs, Commanders at 49ers, Lions, Bengals, Chiefs, 49ers, $20.00. (loss)
Lions at Panthers, Pandy's Pick, Lions -2.5, $12.00. The Lions offense is potent but their defense has stepped up its game considerably lately and the Panthers offense is ranked 30th. (loss)
Three team 10 point teaser, Lions +7.5...Bengals +6.5...Chiefs even, $12.00. (loss)
Week 15: 49ers at Seahawks, Pandy's Pick, Christian McCaffrey over 35.5 receiving yards, $20.00. I have never posted a player prop pick but I'm trying one tonight with the 49ers star running back. With their fast receiver Deebo Samuel out, I expect top running back McCaffrey to get a lot of work and they'll use him in the passing game as well. I'll probably have more picks Saturday or Sunday, by the way. (loss)
Three game 10 point teaser, Patriots at Raiders, Cardinals at Broncos, Titans at Chargers, Cardinals +11.5...Raiders +8...Chargers +7, $40.00. (won)
Week 14: Money line parlay, Cowboys, Eagles, Chiefs, Seahawks, $20.00 to win $31.00. (loss)
Three way 10 point teaser, Vikings at Lions, over 41.5...Eagles at Giants, Eagles +3...Chiefs at Broncos, Chiefs +1.5, $20.00. (won)
Week 13: Seahawks at Rams, Pandy's Pick, Seahawks -7, $25.00. The Seahawks have a strong offense but their defense is playing much better and here they face a Rams team that's struggling to score. In this game the Rams will go without their starting QB and without superstar defensive player Aaron Darnold. (loss)
Browns at Texans, Pandy's Pick, Browns -8, $15.00. I should have bet this yesterday, the line moved a point against me. This marks the return of quarterback Deshaun Watson, who hasn't played in two years. Even if he's rusty, the Browns can run the ball and they still have a good pass rush. I expect that Watson will only need a quarter or two to get back most of his timing. He doesn't have to be his best to have a good game against his old team. (won)
Money line parlay, Browns, Seahawks, Packers, $20.00 to win $30.00. (won)
Three team 10 point teaser, Ravens +1, Packers +5.5, 49ers +5.5, $17.00. (won)
Three team 10 point teaser, Ravens +1, Lions +9, Jets +13, $22.00. (won)
Week 12: My money line parlays haven't been my strong point but I'm trying again with a 5 team money line parlay, Dolphins, Jets, Eagles, Chiefs, 49ers, $25.00. (won, return was $68.00)
Three team 6 point teaser, Chiefs -9.5, Jets -1, Titans +7, $22.00. (won, returned $57.00)
Three team 10 point teaser, Chiefs -5.5, Jets +3, Titans +11, $20.00. (won)
Week 11: Bears at Falcons, Pandy's Pick, Bears +3, $22.00. Neither one of these teams are consistent but I just don't like the way the Falcons starting quarterback Marcus Mariota looks. He's athletic and can run but his passing is not good. Justin Fields, the Bears quarterback, has improved sharply this year and he can run like crazy, plus his passing is much improved. (win)
Three team 10 point teaser, Bears at Falcons, Lions at Giants, Raiders at Broncos, Bears +13...Giants +7...Raiders +13, $50.00. (loss)
Week 10: Cowboys at Packers, Pandy's Pick, Cowboys -4, $60.00. The Packers defense is still solid but they have been struggling to score, with an average of only 17 points a game. The Packers have lost 5 straight. Aaron Rogers has been hampered by a thumb injury and he was intercepted three times against the Lions last week, and the Lions defense is ranked last in the NFL. The Packers also have a key injury with one of their best pass rushers out. The Cowboys defense has been solid and they lead the NFL in QB sacks with 33. (loss)
Three team 10 point teaser, Seahawks vs Buccaneers, Cowboys at Packers, Chargers at 49ers, Seahawks +12.5...Cowboys +6...49ers +2.5, $22.00. (won)
Week 9: No picks this week.
Week 8: Three team 10 point teaser, Patriots at Jets, Giants at Seahawks, 49ers at Rams...Jets +12.5...Giants +13.5...49ers +9, $25.00. (loss)
Week 7: Bears at Patriots, Pandy's Pick, Patriots -7.5, $50.00. The Patriots are coming on strong. As usual with Belichick teams, the defense is getting better each week. But the Patriots offense is also starting to click and their third string QB Bailey Zappe just set an NFL record by winning his first two NFL starts with a passer rating of over 100 in each start. (loss)
Three team 10 point teaser, Saints at Cardinals, Giants at Jaguars, Colts at Titans, Saints +11.5, Colts +12.5, Giants +13, $20.00. (won)
Three Team 10 point teaser, Chiefs at 49ers...Jets at Broncos...Giants at Jacksonville, 49ers +11.5...Jets +8...Giants +13, $25.00. (loss)
Four team money line parlay, Dolphins...Buccaneers...Cowboys...Patriots, $15.00. (loss)
Week 6: Three team 10 point teaser, Commanders +9...Rams even...Chiefs +12.5, $12.00. (won)
Three team money line parlay, Ravens at Giants, Bucs at Steelers, Broncos at Chargers, Ravens, Bucs, Chargers $12.00. (loss)
Three team 10 point teaser, Patriots at Browns, Bengals at Saints, Bucs at Steelers, Patriots +13...Saints +13.5...Buccaneers even, $20.00. (loss)
Week 5: Chargers at Browns, Steelers at Bills, money line parlay, Chargers and Bills, $20.00. (won)
Chargers at Browns, Steelers at Bills, 49ers at Panthers, money line parlay, Chargers, Bills, 49ers, $30.00. (won)
Week 4: Browns at Falcons, Pandy's Pick, Browns -1, $20.00. The Browns have more talent on offense and defense. (lost)
Three team 10 point teaser, Bears at Giants under 49.5...Patriots at Packers under 50...Bills at Ravens over 41, $25.00. (lost)
Three team 10 point teaser, Browns at Falcons, Browns +9...Chiefs at Buccaneers, Chiefs +11...Bears at Giants, Bears +12.5, $22.00. (won)
Week 3: Packers at Buccaneers, Raiders at Titans, two team money line parlay, Packers and Raiders $25.00. (loss)
49ers at Broncos, Chiefs at Colts, two team money line parlay, 49ers and Chiefs $25.00. (loss)
Three team 10 point teaser, Packers at Buccaneers, Raiders at Titans, 49ers at Broncos, Packers +11...Raiders +8...49ers +8.5, $25.00. (won)
Chiefs at Colts, Pandy's Pick, Chiefs -5.5, $20.00. The Colts offensive line has been struggling and veteran QB Matt Ryan has been awful so far for his new team. The Chiefs have a good all around defense and they also have a good offense. This is a must win type of spot for the Colts so they will be trying hard but they really have to improve to win this game. (loss)
Week 2: Thursday night, Chargers at Chiefs, Pandy's Pick, Chargers +4.5 for $20.00. The Chargers with Herbert at quarterback have played well against the Chiefs. The Chiefs kind of got a softened up Cardinals team last week. The Chargers defensive line is very good. (won)
Dolphins at Ravens, Pandy's Pick, Dolphins +3.5 for $20.00. The Dolphins won 7 games in a row at one point last season and this year they made some good changes to improve their offense. They now have two good wide receivers. Both of these teams should have solid defenses this year but the Ravens had injuries on defense last year, and they still have a few key players out. (won)
Three team money line parlay, Titans at Bills, Bengals at Cowboys, Falcons at Rams...Bills, Bengals, Rams, $20.00. (loss)
10 point three team teaser, Colts at Jaguars, Buccaneers at Saints, Falcons at Rams, Colts +7...Saints + 12.5...Rams even, $15.00. (loss)
10 point three team teaser, Bengals at Cowboys, Titans at Bills, Falcons at Rams, Bengals +3...Bills 0...Rams 0, $15.00. (won)
10 point three team teaser, Panthers at Giants, Titans at Bills, Bears at Packers, Giants +9...Bills 0...Packers 0, $12.00. (won)
Week 1: Saints at Falcons, Pandy's Pick, Saints -5.5, $40.00 to cover. The Saints will get their starting quarterback back and star receiver Michael Thomas is also coming back from an injury. The Saints have a very strong front seven and were tough to run on last year. They are expected to have one of the better defenses in the NFL. The Falcons are in a rebuilding situation with a new starting quarterback. (lost)
Three team 10 point teaser, Browns at Panthers, Eagles at Lions, Raiders at Chargers, Browns +10.5...Eagles +4.5...Chargers +6.5, $15.00. (won)
Three team 10 point teaser, Jaguars at Commanders, Giants at Titans, Chiefs at Cardinals, Jaguars +13...Giants +15.5...Chiefs +3.5 (won) $10.00.
Three team money line parlay, Raiders at Chargers, Colts at Texans, Chiefs at Cardinals - Chargers, Colts, Chiefs $12.00. (won)
Three team money line parlay, 49ers at Bears, Saints at Falcons, Chiefs at Cardinals - 49ers, Saints, Chiefs $12.00. (lost)
Pandy's NFL Best Bets and NFL analysis, 2021 season Wrap Up
2021 record against the spread: 8-3 (plus $64.00)
Teasers: 19-9 (plus $232.50)
Parlays: 7-10 (plus $17.00)
Overall: plus $313.50
Odds-lines from Bookmaker or Sugarhouse
Super Bowl Sunday: Pandy's Pick, Bengals at Rams, Rams -4. The line opened at 3.5 but is now 4. The Rams have more talent, although the Bengals just beat two teams that clearly had more talent than they do, so the Bengals are certainly fighters and their quarterback Joe Burrow is a dynamic leader. But, I'm taking the Rams and laying the points for $40.00. I think the Rams match up well with the Bengals. The Rams have a good pass rush, the Bengals allowed 9 sacks in their first playoff game and lead the NFL in being sacked 51 times. Defensively, the Bengals secondary made big plays, 5 interceptions, in their two playoff wins and to me, the Bengals secondary has to play a huge game again if they're going to have a chance against this fast and talented Rams offensive. To hear my complete audio analysis click on the Youtube link below. (loss)
To hear Pandy's Super Bowl Analysis Video commentary, click on the YouTube link below.
Conference Sunday: Bengals at Chiefs, Pandy's Pick, Chiefs -7, $30.00. I hit all five of my bets last week, even though the Titans and Green Bay blew games where they were clearly the better team. How the heck did the Titans sack the opposing quarterback 9 times, and rush for 147 yards, and lose? Crazy. But I had those two teams in teasers and they covered. Next Sunday the Chiefs opened up as 7 point favorites. As we saw in Sunday night's amazing game, The Chiefs offense is loaded with speed. They scored over 40 points against the NFL's number 1 ranked defense. The Bengas offensive line gave up 9 sacks last week and the Chiefs will probably blitz a lot. I'm laying the 7 points, Chiefs -7, $30.00. (loss)
49ers at Rams and Bengals at Chiefs, money line parlay, Chiefs/Rams $20.00. (loss)
Divisional Weekend: Bengals at Titans, 49ers at Packers, Bills at Chiefs, 10 point teaser, Titans +6.5, Packers +4.5, Chiefs +7.5, $12.00. (won $12.00)
Two team 7 point teaser, Chiefs +5 and Rams +9.5, $16.00. (won $14.00)
Two team parlay, Chiefs moneyline and Rams +2.5, $12.00. (won $30.00)
Bills at Chiefs, Pandy's Pick, Chiefs - 1.5, $12.00. This line has been dropping as money came in on the Bills after their powerful win against the Patriots last week. I'm picking the Chiefs here. I looked over the Bills season stats. They have the number 1 ranked defense in the NFL. But, they played a lot of weak offensive teams in the second half of the season. They did beat the Chiefs and hold them to 20 points on October 10, but they gave up 41 points to the Colts, 33 points to Tampa Bay, and 34 points to the Titans. So, when they played good offensive teams, their defense wasn't great. (won $12.00)
Rams at Buc, Pandy's Pick, Rams +2.5, $20.00. I'm going to take the Rams and the points here. The Rams should be able to pressure Brady and double cover Mike Evans. Brady still has Bronk, his big tight end, to throw to and I'm sure he'll get plenty of targets. But overall the Buccaneers offense has been hurt by injuries, so that could slow them down, especially against this solid Rams defense. On defense, Tampa Bay is certainly formidable. But the Rams have talented wide receivers. (won $20.00)
Wildcard weekend: I decided to add a game, 6:35 p.m. on Monday. Cardinals at Rams, Pandy's Pick, Rams -3.5, $21.00. The Rams are nicely rested and reasonably healthy and have a strong defense. (won $21.00)
Two team money line parlay, Eagles at Buccaneers and Steelers at Chiefs, Buccaneers and Chiefs, $20.00. (won $10.00)
Four team money line parlay, 49ers at Cowboys, Patriots at Bills, Eagles at Buccaneers, and Steelers at Chiefs, Cowboys, Bills, Buccaneers, Chiefs, $10.00. (loss)
Week 18: Early wager, Money line parlay: Washington at Giants, Colts at Jaguars, Chiefs at Broncos, Titans at Texans, Washington, Colts, Chiefs, Titans, $12.00. (loss)
Money line parlay, Colts at Jaguars, Chiefs at Broncos, Panthers at Buccaneers, Colts, Chiefs, Buccaneers, $15.00 to return $25.00.
Week 17: Giants at Bears, Pandy's Pick, Bears -6, $10.00. Nick Foles took over at QB for the Bears last week and engineered a come form behind victory. The Bears defense can keep the weak Giants offense in check. (won)
Two team 7 point teaser, Giants at Bears, Jaguars at Patriots, Bears + 1, Patriots - 9.5, $12.00. (won)
Money line parlay: Bills...Bears...Patriots...Buccaneers...Chargers...49ers...Saints...Packers, $10.00 to return $45.00. (won)
Week 16: Weird week this week with so many players out due to Covid posititives. Ravens at Bengals, Chargers at Texans, Steelers at Chiefs, Bengals, Chargers, Chiefs money line win parlay, $12.00. (loss)
Week 15: Cardinals at Lions, Cowboys at Giants, Packers at Ravens, three team money line parlay, Cardinals, Cowboys, Packers - $36.00 (loss)
Week 14: Five team money line parlay, Raiders at Chiefs, Seahawks at Texans, Jaguars at Titans, Lions at Broncos, Giants at Chargers...Chiefs, Seahawks, Titans, Broncos, Chargers, $32.00. (won, returned $94.00, won $62.00)
Three team 10 point teaser, Ravens at Browns, Raiders at Chiefs, Seahawks at Texans, Browns +7...Chiefs +0.5...Seahawks +1.5, $22.00. (won)
Three team 10 point teaser, Cowboys at Washington, Bears at Packers, Rams at Cardinals, Cowboys +5.5...Packers -2.5...Cardinals +7.5, $12.00. (won)
Week 13: Early picks...Colts at Texans, Vikings at Lions, Buccaneers at Falcons, Colts, Vikings, Buccaneers, $33.00 money line parlay. (loss)
Three team 10 point teaser, Buccaneers at Falcons, Colts at Texans, Patriots at Bills, Buccaneers -0.5, Colts even, Patriots +13, $22.00. (win)
Colts at Texans, Vikings at Lions, Buccaneers at Falcons, Jaguars at Rams, Broncos at Chiefs, 49ers at Seahawks, Colts, Vikings, Buccaneers, Rams, Chiefs, 49ers, $10.00 money line parlay.
Week 12: Three team 10 point teaser, Titans at Patriots, Rams at Packers, Patriots +3...Patriots/Titans under 53...Rams +8, $25.00. (won)
Week 11: Early wager...Money line parlay, Patriots at Falcons, Dolphins at Jets, Ravens at Bears, Packers at Vikings, 49ers at Jaguars, Texans at Titans, Lions at Browns, Cardinals at Seahawks - Patriots, Dolphins, Ravens, Packers, 49ers, Titans, Browns, Cardinals $13.00 to return $220.00. (loss)
Thursday night game, Patriots at Falcons, Pandy's Pick, Patriots -7, $22.00. Don't look now, but the Patriots are back. I should have bet this on Monday morning but the line still seems like a good bet. The Patriots are humming now and it looks like Belichick has his team set. Belichick's teams often perform much better in the second half of the season anyway. Right now the Patriots are running the ball well, and their defensive secondary is one of the best in the league. The Falcons have surprised this year, but in three of their four wins they beat three of the worst teams in the NFL. In their win against the Saints, the Saints outplayed them in many respects, but had too many penalties and mistakes. The Falcons are winless at home this year and the Patriots are 4-0 on the road. (won)
Three team 10 point teaser, Patriots at Falcons, Texans at Titans, Cowboys at Chiefs, Patriots +3...Titans 0...Cowboys and Chiefs over 45.5, $22.00. (loss)
Three team 10 point teaser, Packers at Vikings, Cowboys at Chiefs, Cardinals at Seattle, Packers +10...Cowboys +12.5...Cardinals +13, $23.00. (won)
Week 10: Three team teaser, Buccaneers at Washington, Panthers at Cardinals, Jaguars at Colts, Buccaneers +0.5, Cardinals +0.5, Colts even, $36.00.(loss)
Three team teaser, Seahawks at Packers, Eagles at Broncos, Buccaneers at Washington, Packers +7, Broncos +8, Buccaneers +0.5, $25.00 (loss)
Week 9: Money line parlay, Patriots at Panthers, Bills at Jaguars, Broncos at Cowboys, Patriots, Bills, Cowboys, $20.00. (loss)
Three team 10 point teaser, Packers at Chiefs, Browns at Bengals, Chargers at Eagles, Packers +17, Browns +12, Chargers +8.5, $22.00. (won)
Three team 10 point teaser, Vikings at Ravens, Patriots at Panthers, Chargers at Eagles, Vikings +16, Patriots +6.5, Chargers +8.5, $20.00. (won)
Week 8: Money line parlay, Buccaneers, Bills, 49ers, Rams, Chargers, $20.00 to win $61.00. (loss)
Three team 10 point teaser, Eagles at Lions, Bengals at Jets, Giants at Chiefs, Lions +13.5, Jets +21, Giants +19.5, $11.00. (loss)
Three team 10 point teaser, Dolphins at Bills, Rams at Texans, Patriots at Chargers, Bills -4, Rams -6, Chargers +5.5, $16.00. (won $14.00)
Two team 6 point teaser, Cowboys at Vikings, Steelers at Browns, Vikings +3, Browns +1.5, $11.00. (loss)
Week 7: Three team 10 point teaser, Falcons at Dolphins, Eagles at Raiders, Colts at 49ers, Falcons +8...Eagles +12.5...Colts +14.5, $35.00. (won $30.00)
Money line parlay, Packers, Rams, Buccaneers, Cardinals, $14.00. (won $11.00)
Money Line parlay, Packers, Rams, Buccaneers, $13.00. (won $8.00)
Week 6: Two team 7 point teaser, Chargers at Ravens, Chargers + 9.5...Raiders at Broncos, Raiders + 11, $23.00. (loss)
Three team 10 point teaser, Cowboys at Patriots, Cowboys +6.5...Vikings at Panthers, Vikings + 7.5...Raiders at Broncos, Raiders +14, $33.00. (won $31.00)
Three team 10 point teaser, Jaguars/Dolphins in England, +12...Texans at Colts, Texans +20...Chargers at Ravens, Chargers +13, $24.00. (loss)
Chiefs at Washington and Cowboys at Patriots, $10.00 money line parlay, Chiefs and Cowboys. (won, $20.00)
Jaguars/Dolphins, Rams at Giants, Chiefs at Washington, Cowboys at Patriots, Jaguars, Rams, Chiefs, Cowboys, $6.00 money line parlay. (won, $28.00)
Week 5: Early wagers, Rams at Seahawks, Rams -2.5, $20.00. The Rams have a top ranked offense and one of the tougher defenses in the NFL. The Seahawks also have the ability to score a lot of points but their defense is questionable and their offensive line could be a liability against the Rams defense. (won)
Two way 7 point teaser, Rams at Seahawks, Rams +4.5, over 46, $20.00 to return $35.00. (loss)
Three team 10 point teaser, Jets and Falcons in England, Jets +13.5...Dolphins at Buccaneers, Buccaneers even...Lions at Vikings, Vikings +1.5, $33.00 to win $34.00. (won)
Three way money line parlay, Jets, Buccaneers, Vikings, $11 to win $31.00 (return of $42.00) (loss)
Week 4: Early wager, Three team 10 point teaser, Colts at Dolphins, Cardinals at Rams, Buccaneers at Patriots, Dolphins +8, Rams +5.5, Tampa Bay +3, $45.00 to return $81.00. (loss)
Ravens at Broncos, Pandy's Pick, Ravens +1, $35.00. The Broncos are 3-0 this year but all three of their wins came against teams that are winless on the season. The Ravens lost their first game in OT against a hot Raiders team, then beat the Chiefs and Jacksonville. (won)
Three team 10 point teaser, Ravens at Broncos, Ravens +11...Chiefs at Eagles, Chiefs +3...Browns at Vikings, Vikings +12, $33.00 to win $27.50. (won)
Week 3: I'm not excited about any particular game, in terms of betting the line, so I'm sticking with two teasers.
Three team 10 point teaser, Chargers-Chiefs over
44.5...Cardinals +2.5 at Jaguars...Vikings at home vs Seahawks, Vikings +12,
$57.00 to win $43.00. (won)
Three team 10 point teaser, Chargers at Chiefs, Chargers +16.5...Seahawks at
Vikings, over 45...Jets at Broncos, Broncos -0.5, $33.00 to win $28.00. (won)
Week 2: Three team 10 point teaser, Saints at Panthers, Bengals at Bears, Chiefs at Ravens - Saints/Panthers under 54.5, Bengals/Bears, Bears +9...Chiefs/Ravens, Chiefs +6.5, $44.00 to win $42.00. (won)
Week 1: 49ers at Lions, Pandy's Pick, 49ers - 8.5, $50.00...The 49ers defense played well with several injured players last year. The Lions will try this with Goff at QB instead of Stafford, who was traded. Goff doesn't have the talent of Stafford. (49ers won by 8, loss)
Bears at Rams, Pandy's Pick, Rams -7.5, $50.00. The Rams will have Matthew Stafford at QB for the first time and this will be the best defensive team he's ever played on, so he'll appreciate not having to play from behind all the time, and having better field position. The Bears have a fine defense but they have to prove that they can score. (Rams covered easily, won)
Two team 6 point teaser, 49ers - 2.5 and Rams -1.5, $25.00 (won)
Pandy's NFL Best Bets and NFL analysis, 2020 season
2020
record: 6-5 (plus $25.00)
Teasers: 18-11 (plus $156.00)
Parlays: 3-8 (-$201.00)
Overall: minus $20.00
Odds-lines from Bookmaker or Sugarhouse
Super Bowl: Chiefs at Buccaneeers, Pandy's Pick, the Chiefs - 3, $30.00, the Chiefs on the money line, $30.00.
This looks like a good match up with two talented offenses lead by two great quarterbacks. Both teams have respectable defenses, but these are teams that got to where they are by scoring a lot of points. Tampa Bay's defense is strong up front with a good D-line and quick linebackers. The Buccaneers have the number 1 rushing defense in the NFL. I doubt that we're going to see the Chiefs try to run the ball that often. The Chiefs defense rely on blitzing to get pressure. Both teams can ball hawk and I expect that there will be few interceptions in this game, and that could be critical.
The Chiefs will go without two of the starting offensive linemen, which is another reason why they won't be running the football. But, I think the Chiefs still have a clear edge in certain ways. For one, the Chiefs have a great coaching staff. Head coach Andy Reid is without a doubt one of the best head coaches in NFL history. His teams are always well prepared, especially when they have two weeks to prepare. And the Chiefs defensive coach, Steve Spagnuolo, is one of the best. He was the defensive coach of one of the Giants teams that upset the Patriots in the Super Bowl. Both teams have speedy players on both sides of the ball, but the Chiefs are a particularly fast team. Their quarterback, Patrick Mahomes, has the best Touchdown to Interception ratio in NFL history, and, the best passer rating in NFL history. He's an accurate passer who can also move very well. He's injured but two weeks off will help his injured toe. Mahomes has many targets that he can throw to. And there's a possibility that wide receiver Sammy Watkins, another player with good speed, could be back in the line up for the Super Bowl. If Watkins plays, even if they don't throw to him that often, that makes it tougher to figure out which receiver to double team.
The Chiefs also have one of the best field goal kickers in the NFL, and they're very good on special teams. They lost one of their best offensive linemen to an Achilles injury in last week's game, but they have a lot of depth. The over under is 57.5. Both of these teams have outstanding receivers and accurate passers. Right now there's a chance of thunderstorms on Sunday but the prediction is for earlier in the day.
The Chiefs almost blew out the Buccaneers in their lone match up this season but I'm not sure that means much for this game. The Buccaneers are certainly capable of beating anyone on any given day, they have a well-balanced team and they can rush the quarterback. For the Chiefs to win, they have to attack the secondary with mid to long range passes. The Buccaneers will most likely mix it up more, run the ball more, and Brady will try to spread the ball around to his talented receivers. One of the big keys is the pass rush. The Chiefs will most likely blitz pretty often to try and pressure Brady, and that's always been the best way to try and mitigate his brilliance. But the Buccaneers should have good pass pressure from their front four, especially with the injuries to the Chiefs offensive line. Mahomes is quick and agile, even with a bad toe, and how he performs out of the pocket could be a big factor in this game.
Conference Sunday: Great match-ups today. All four of these teams have potent offenses and respectable defenses. The Buccaneers and Packers met in week six and Tampa's quick linebacking team played a great game and the Buccaneers beat the Packers pretty easily. However, the Packers offensive line has been playing great lately and their offense is hot. The Packers scored 32 points against the top defense in the NFL last week and 35 points against the quality Bears defense two weeks ago. The Packers offense averaged 31.8 points during the season, making them the top scoring team in the NFL. Tampa Bay is a solid team, though, and it would not surprise me if they won.
In the later game, the Chiefs are supposed to get their running back, Edwards-Helaire, back today, and wide receiver Sammy Watkins might also play. This could be a close game but the Chiefs have so many ways to beat you, I prefer them.
However, I only made one bet, a two-team 7 point teaser, in the Buccaneers/Packers game over 45 points, and in the Bills/Chiefs game, Chiefs +4, $23.00 to win $19.00. (won)
Divisional weekend: Packers, Ravens, Chiefs money line parlay, $16.00 to win $42.00. (lost)
Three way 10 point teaser, Ravens vs Bills, Ravens +12.5...Rams vs Packers, under 55.5...Buccaneers vs Saints, over 41.5, $12.00 to win $10.00. (lost)
Wildcard weekend: Colts at Bills, Pandy's Pick, Bills -6.5, $20.00. The Bills offense is ranked 2nd in the NFL and they've been hot, but the defense has been playing well the last six games. The Colts are not pushovers but the Bills are just so hot right now. (lost)
Buccaneers at Washington, Buccaneers -8.5, $20.00. Washington's veteran QB Alex Smith did not look healthy last week, he could barely run, and he may not be able to play the entire game. Washington's offense is ranked 30th. Washington has a top tier defense, ranked 2nd in the NFL, but the Buccaneers have good weapons on offensive, even if star receiver Mike Evans doesn't play. Both of these teams have a good pass rush but future HOF QB Tom Brady knows how to use quick short throws to counter a good pass rush better than anyone. And it's not like the Buccaneers have a bad defense, they are 6th ranked overall. (lost)
Ravens at Titans, Pandy's Pick, Ravens -3, $20.00. Both teams have potent running attacks. The Ravens lead the lead in rushing, mainly because QB Lamar Jackson rushed for over 1,000 yards. Jackson is the best running QB in NFL history. The Titans have Derick Henry, a powerful and punishing runner. The Titans have the passing edge as QB Ryan Tannehill has been hot all year and he only has 7 interceptions. The Ravens offense struggled at times this year but they come into this game on a hot streak, averaging 37 points a game over the last five games, all wins. But perhaps the story is the Ravens defense, which is clearly the better defense in this game. The Titans gave up almost 1,000 yards more than the Ravens this year, they allowed 36 touchdowns compared to the Ravens 22 touchdowns. And, the Ravens had 39 QB sacks this year, compared to 19 for the Titans. (won)
Two team parlay, Bills -6.5, Steelers -6, $50.00 to win $93.00. (lost)
Two Team Money Line parlay, Buccaneers at Washington and Bears at Saints, Buccaneers and Saints $60.00 to win $31.00. (won)
Three team money line parlay, Buccaneers, Saints, Bills (Colts at Bills), $24.00 to win $25.00. (won)
Three team 10 point teaser, Bills +3.5...Buccaneers +1.5...Saints even, $41.00 to win $30.00. (won)
Three team 7 point teaser, Steelers +1...Buccaneers -1.5...Bills +0.5, $20.00 to win $24.00. (lost)
Three team 10 point teaser, Bills/Colts over 41.5...Rams/Seahawks under 52...Ravens/Titans over 44.5, $22.00 to win $20.00. (lost)
Week 17: My NFL parlays have been horrendous this year but I'm trying another one, Browns will be playing a Steelers team that doesn't have any motivation, the Colts face the worst team in the NFL, and Washington need to beat the Eagles, and they have a good defense, plus Alex Smith has been announced as the starting QB. Plus, the Eagles will be without many players, $37.00 to win $40.00, Browns, Colts, Washington money line parlay. (won)
I'm going to try four teasers in the last regular season week. Hopefully I won't wipe out my teaser profit.
Three team 10 point teaser, Jets +13...Browns -1...Colts -4, $35.00 to win $25. (loss)
Three team 10 point teaser, Seahawks +3.5...Washington +6...Titans/Texans over 45, $30.00 to win $21. (won)
Three team 10 point teaser, Giants +11.5...Ravens -3.5...Dolphins +11, $20.00 to win $14.00. (loss)
Three team 10 point teaser, Colts -4...Washington +6...Seahawks +3.5, $22.00 to win $15.00. (won)
Week 16: Bengals at the Texans, Pandy's Pick, Texans -7, $50.00 to win $45.00. The Bengals defense played well when they upset the Steelers last week, but the Steelers offense has been in a funk the past three games. The Bengals, back on a short week after playing Monday night, are really missing their injured starting QB, Burrow, who is a promising player. They could struggle offensively again as they're 30th in both yards and points scored. Even though the Texans only have 4 wins, they've played some good teams tough. (loss)
Three team 10 point teaser...Packers +7...Colts +11.5...Rams +11, $35.00 to win $25.00. (won)
Money line parlay, Bears and Texans, $33.00 to win $20.00. (loss)
Week 15: Three team 10 point teaser, Colts +3...Titans +1...Dolphins +8.5, $44.00 to win $37.00. (won)
Week 14: Cardinals at Giants, Pandy's Pick, Giants +3, $33.00 to win $30.00. The Giants defense has been getting better and better in all facets of the game. They've been stopping the run, pressuring quarterbacks. Offensively, although the Giants still have a lot to prove, the Giants offensive line has played exceptionally well during their four game winning streak.
Week 12: Saints at Broncos, Pandy's Pick, Saints -15.5, $44.00 to win $40.00. This is a tough break for the Broncos who have to sit all of their regular quarterbacks due to Covid tests. This game probably should have been moved to another day. This is a lot of points to lay in the NFL but the Saints are a good team and it's hard to imagine that the Broncos can stay close with someone playing QB who is not a regular quarterback. (won)
Titans at Colts, Pandy's Pick, Titans +3, $22.00 to win $20.00. These two teams are pretty closely matched but the Titans had their starting punter out when they played last time and it hurt them. Today, the Colts have several players that landed on the injury lists including their starting center and two good defensive players. This is a good divisional match up and should be close. (won)
Raiders at Falcons, Pandy's Pick, Raiders -3, $35.00 to win $30.00. It looks like the inconsistent Falcons will be without starters Todd Gurley and Julio Jones. The Raiders, although inconsistent defensively, can put up points and the Falcons defense gives up a lot of yards. (loss)
Three team 10 point teaser, Dolphins at Jets, Jets +17...Titans at Colts, Titans +13...Raiders at Falcons, Raiders +7, $40.00 to win $30.00. (loss)
Money line parlay, Raiders, Giants, Saints, Seahawks, Steelers, $20.00 to win $57.00. (loss)
Money line parlay, Raiders, Seahawks, Saints, $16.00 to win $21.00. (loss)
11: Three team money line parlay, Steelers at Jaguars, Steelers to win...Cowboys at Vikings, Vikings to win...Chiefs at Raiders, Chiefs to win, $70.00 to win $74.00. (loss)
Two team 6.5 point Round Robin, Patriots at Texans, Patriots +4.5...Titans at Ravens, Ravens +0.5, $43.00 to win $40.00. (loss)
Week 10: Early pick - Three team money line parlay Jaguars at Packers, Packers...49ers at Saints, Saints...Ravens at Patriots, Ravens, $34.00 to win $25.00. (loss)
Bills at Cardinals, Pandy's Pick, Cardinals - 2.5, $33.00 to win $30.00. These teams seem pretty evenly matched but the Bills have four defensive players out for this game due to Covid including top cornerback Josh Norman, plus another good cornerback. Buffalo comes off back to back wins over the Patriots and the Seahawks and could be due for a letdown. (loss)
Three team 10 point teaser, Cardindals/Bills over 45.5...Rams/Seahawks, Rams +7.5...Saints/49ers, Saints +0.5, $36.00 to win $34.00. (won)
Three team 10 point teaser, Chargers at Dolphins, Chargers +11.5...Seahawks at Rams, Rams +7.5...Ravens at Patriots, Ravens +3, $25.00 to win $20.00.
Week 9: Packers at 49ers, Pandy's Pick, Packers -7.5, $44.00 to win $40.00. The 49ers defense is playing well but on offense they are once again hit by serious injuries to their starting quarterback, running backs, and their top receiver. (won)
Three team 10 point teaser, Chiefs even, Chargers +11, Patriots +0.5, $60.00 to win $42.00. (won)
Week 8: Three game money line parlay, Chiefs, Packers, Eagles, $58.00 to win $40.00. (loss)
Three team 7 point teaser, 49ers at Seahawks, 49ers +10...Cowboys at Eagles, Eagles -3.5...Jets at Chiefs, Chiefs -13, $25.00 to win $30.00. (won)
Three team 10 point teaser, Packers +3.5...49ers +13...Eagles -1, $36.00 to win $30.00. (loss)
Week 7: Browns at Bengals, Pandy's Pick, Browns -3, $30.00. Cleveland is leading the NFL in rushing and the Bengals weren't able to stop them when the Browns beat them 35-30 earlier in the season. The Browns should also be able to pressure the Bengals rookie quarterback. (push)
3 team, 6 point teaser, Panthers at Saints, Panthers +12.5...Lions at Falcons, Lions +7.5...Steelers at Titans, Steelers +7, $23.00 to win $23.00 to win $37.00. (won)
3 team 10 point teaser, Panthers +16.5...Lions +11.5...Steelers +11, $40.00 to win $30.00. (won)
Week 6: Money line parlay, Vikings and Chiefs $26 to win $30.00. Money line parlay Chiefs and Lions $20 to win $26.00. Two team 6 point teaser, Panthers +5.5 and Packers +5.5, $21.00 to win $20.00. Three team 10 point teaser, Browns +13.5, Bengals +17.5, and Packers +9, $40.00 to win $33.00.
Week 5: Injuries and the virus rescheduling is making handicapping the NFL tricky so I'm playing cautiously, trying to win, as always. Three team 10 point teaser, Vegas at Chiefs, Chiefs -0.5...Colts at Browns, Browns +9...Rams at Washington, Rams +3, $36.00 to win $30.00. (loss)
Two team 6 point teaser, Rams -6 and Browns +5.5, $36.00 to win $30.00. (win)
Week 4: Three team money line parlay, Jets, Ravens, Saints, $25.00 to win $50.00. (loss)
Three team 10 point teaser: Chargers at Buccaneers, Chargers +17.5...Giants at Rams, Rams -3.5...Jaguars at Bencals, Jaguars +12, $65.00 to win $51.00. (won)
Week 3: Early pick, Dolphins at Jacksonville, Pandy's Pick, Jaguars -3, $33.00 to win $30.00. (loss)
Three team 10 point teaser, Rams at Bills, Rams +11.5...49ers at Giants, Giants +13.5...Cowboys at Seahawks, Cowboys +15, $60.00 to win $50.00. (loss)
Week 2: Patriots at Seahawks, Pandy's Pick, Seahawks -4, $32.00 to win $30.00. The Seahawks seem to have a good balance on both offense and defense. Both teams have good defensive talent. But the Seahawks have more weapons on offense and a QB who's in the prime of his career. (won)
Three team 10 point teaser, Rams +11.5 vs Eagles...Steelers +3.5 vs Broncos...Chiefs +1.5 vs Chargers, $36.00 to win $30.00. (won)
Three team 10 point teaser, Rams +11.5...Steelers +3.5...Giants at Bears, Giants +15.5, $36.00 to win $30.00. (won)
Week 1: Jets at Bills, Pandy's Pick, Bills -6, $60.00. I'll be rooting for the Jets but this line seems like good value to back the Bills, who had a solid defense last year and made progress on offense. The Jets lost their star safety in the off season and another top defensive player opted out of the season. I expect to see some offensive rust for some teams in week 1, so this could be a low scoring game. (won)
3 team 10 point teaser, Bears +12.5...Packers +12.5...Saints +6.5, $50 to win $41.00 (won)
Pandy's NFL Best Bets and NFL analysis, 2019 season
Super Bowl: Chiefs vs 49ers, Pandy's Pick, 49ers +1, $21.00 to win $20.00. I'm often pretty confident in my Super Bowl pick, and I've made some of my Best Bets in the SB. I've been picking the Super Bowl on my website for 18 years and I am 12-6 against the spread and I hit the last two years. But my confidence level isn't high this year because these teams are closely matched and it could be that the team that gets a few lucky breaks wins the game. The line has dropped from 1.5 to 1, not a great deal on a game that figures to be very close. I loved the Niners last week and made a few bets that were bigger than I normally bet, so that helped my bottom line. This could be a great Super Bowl. During the season I thought there were four top teams, Saints, Ravens, Niners and Chiefs and I think it's fair to say that these were the two best teams in the NFL. The Chiefs defense played better as the year went on, and the Niners defense is capable of shutting teams down. That being said, both of these teams can score. Everyone knows that the Chiefs have an explosive offense. But, the 49ers scored more points than the Chiefs during the regular season (only the Ravens scored more points). The 49ers also had more yards than the Chiefs. So, it's not like the 49ers have a bad offense, quite the contrary. Both of these young quarterbacks have amazing records as starters. Jimmy Garoppolo has started 26 games in his NFL career and has 21 wins. Mahomes has started 31 games in his NFL career and has 24 wins. I don't think there's any question that Mahomes is more talented, he's a superstar and appears to be the best quarterback in the NFL. (lost)
Although the 49ers are a great running team I expect them to throw the ball early in this game. The reason being, the Chiefs are a very well coached team. I figured that they would do a good job against the Titans potent running game, because the Chiefs had everyone in to stop the run. The 49ers are also very well coached and the best way to get those linebackers to move back is to throw the ball early. The 49ers have a solid passing attack. If Jimmy G can hit some good passes early, that could open up the run game. The 49ers run blockers, including their backs and receivers, all do a fantastic job of run blocking. The Chiefs run defense was not that good overall during the regular season. I also expect that the 49ers will be in a defense that almost tries to force the Chiefs to run, but the Chiefs running attack has not been that good this year.
Both of these teams have some fast players, the Chiefs on offense, where they have two fast wide receivers, and the 49ers on defense, where they have several fast defensive players including very quick pass rushers. So it's an interesting match up. I expect that they'll pressure Mahomes all day, but, obviously he's quick enough to make some plays with his legs, and, to throw on the run.
Conference Sunday: (early pick) Packers at 49ers, Pandy's Pick, 49ers -7, $98.00 to win $91.00. The Vikings looked tough beating a very talented Saints team in New Orleans, then was no match at all for the powerful San Francisco 49ers. I'm putting a bet in early to lock in -7. The 49ers are a great team, they have the number 1 ranked pass defense, and on offense, they're 4th overall in total yards, 2nd in rushing, and 2nd in points scored per game. (won)
I bet the Niners early when the line is -7. Adding a teaser -
Two team 7 point teaser, Chiefs even, Niners - 0.5, $26.00 to win $20.00. (won)
Divisional Weekend: The oddsmakers seemed to get the lines right on the mark this weekend, so I'm not excited about straight plays, although I did bet the Ravens. My feeling is that the favorites are all clearly the best teams, so I bet a money line parlay with them, and teased the Chiefs and Ravens down 6 points. Some notes, Saturday, the 49ers defense is healthy and they have an outstanding secondary. Their offense has improved and they can run the ball. The Vikings certainly have a solid defense and a good running game, so this is a good match up. But, overall, I think the 49ers are the better team and a bit healthier overall, but I don't want to lay the 7 points because this could be a close game. In the late game Saturday, the Titans offensive line and was amazing last week, and, obviously Derrick Henry is an elite running back. But, the Ravens defense is tough and they have a good secondary. I don't think the Titans can beat the Ravens just by running, as they did against the Patriots. The Patriots offense is weak, the Ravens offense is explosive. To me, the Ravens make the most sense as a straight play this weekend. They have a well rounded team and a quarterback who is an explosive runner, and Jackson has done well passing this year as well. On Sunday, the Chiefs are healthy and their defense has been playing really well. We know what they can do offensively. 9.5 points is a lot of points, however, against a Houston team that played a great game to beat a top team (Saints) last week. Chiefs coach Andy Reid is very good off a bye and he'll have the Chiefs ready to come out strong from the outset. As for the Seattle vs Green Bay, Seattle has played extremely well on the road this year, the best of any team in the NFL. But they have serious injury problems. I bet the Seahawks against the Eagles last week, but the Eagles had a ton of injuries. Green Bay is healthy and although they played a pretty soft schedule, they've gotten the job done and they have an edge at home here, especially since the weather will be typically cold.
Titans at Ravens, Pandy's Pick, Ravens -10, $22.00 to win $20.00. (lost)
Two team 6 point teaser, Chiefs - 3.5 and Ravens -4, $22.00 to win $20.00. (lost)
Money line parlay, Chiefs, Ravens, 49ers, Packers, $22.00 to win $40.00. (lost)
Wild Card Weekend: Bills at Texans, Pandy's Pick, Texans -2.5. This is an interesting match up. Both teams are 10-6. The Bills are more of a defensive team, the Texans, just the opposite. My main reason for going with the Texans is the schedules both teams played this year. The Bills were solid, for sure, but they had an easy schedule. Buffalo played five games against teams that made the playoffs. They lost four of those games including two to the Patriots, and they lost to the Eagles and the Ravens. The only playoff team they beat was the Titans, but that was in week 5, before the Titans got hot with Ryan Tannehill at quarterback. The Texans played six games against playoff teams and they won three of them, beating the Chiefs 31-24, the Patriots 28-22, and they also beat the Titans. In the last game of the season they lost to the Titans but they weren't trying to win that game because they had already locked up the wild card and they rested players. The also played very well against the Saints, losing 30-28. In this game, I expect that their defense will play well enough against the Bills, who are not exactly an offensive juggernut. Offensively, the Texans have enough talent to move the ball. Their quarterback Deshaun Watson tossed 3 TDs and completed 72% of his passes against the tough Patriots secondary when the Texans scored 28 points, and Watson also ran for 7 touchdowns this year. $22.00 to win $20.00. (won)
Seahawks at Eagles, Pandy's pick, Seahawks - 1.5. Both teams have lost players from injuries, and, quite frankly, the Seahawks were a better team in the first three months of the season than they are now. But the Eagles have so many key injuries on offense, receivers, backs, offensive linemen, it's bad. After losing to the Dolphins on Dec. 1, the Eagles won their last four games to salvage a wild card spot. But, they beat the Giants twice, the Redskins, and the Cowboys. The Seahawks played some good games against top teams, beating the 49ers, and then playing them very close last week. They also beat the Eagles and the Vikings. The Eagles beat the Packers and the Bills. The Eagles have the better defense, but the Seahawks should have a big edge on offense here and they have played well on the road. $22.00 to win $20.00. (won)
Three team 10 point teaser, Titans +14.5...Saints +2...Seahawks +8.5, $24.00 to win $20.00. (lost)
Money line parlay, Texans, Saints, Seahawks, $19.00 to win $52.00. (lost)
Week 17: 3 team 10 point teaser, Jets +10...Chiefs even...Saints -4, $36.00 to win $30.00. (won)
Week 16: 2 team 6 point teaser, Ravens -4 over Browns and Chiefs even over Bears, $33.00 to win $30.00. (won)
Week 15: Rams at Cowboys, Pandy's Pick, Rams -1. The Rams defense is back in form and facing a Dallas offense that has been struggling, $22.00 to win $20.00. (loss)
Seahawks at Panthers, Pandy's Pick, Seahawks -6. The Panthers season has gone off the rails and Seattle is still one of the better teams in the NFL, $22.00 to win $20.00. (push)
3 team 10 point teaser, Seahawks +4...49ers even...Rams +9, $33.00 to win $30.00. (win)
3 team 10 point teaser, Ravens -4.5...Patriots even...Saints +1, $55.00 to win $45.00. (loss)
3 team money line parlay, Patriots, 49ers, Chiefs, $50.00 to win $33.00. (loss)
Week 14: Ravens at Bills, Pandy's Pick, Ravens -6. The Ravens are 10-2, and Bills are 9-3, but if you compare the schedules these two teams have had, the Ravens has faced, and beaten, some of the best teams in the NFL including the 49ers, Texans, Seahawks, Patriots. And they've beaten some good teams handily. They beat the Rams 45-6, they beat the Seahawks 30-16, they beat the Texans 41-7, and they scored 37 points against the Patriots highly ranked defense beating them handily as well. The Bills are a solid team but they've only beaten one team with a winning record, the Titans. They beat weak teams like the Dolphins (twice), the Bengals, the Redskins, so four of their wins were against the three worst teams in the NFL. $33.00 to win $30.00. (won)
Money line parlay, Texans, Ravens, Vikings, $22.00 to win $20.00. (loss)
Three team 10 point teaser, Texans +1...49ers +12...Chiefs +13, $60.00 to win $50.00. (loss)
Week 13: Bears at Lions, Pandy's Pick, Bears -5.5. The line has gone up steadily as the Lions are down to their third string QB, undrafted player who played for Purdue, David Blough. Blough has never played in the NFL. He just started practicing with the first team on Tuesday. This is a tough spot for him against a good defense. The Lions also have three defensive linemen who have been nursing injuries. Either way, the Lions defense has not played well and the Bears defense is still one of the better units in the NFL. The Bears are also showing improvement after losing three straight games, they've won two in a row. $44.00 to win $40.00. (loss)
Two team 6 point teaser, Bears even and Saints minus 0.5, $22.00 to win $20.00. (won)
Week 12: Buccaneers at Falcons, Pandy's Pick, Falcons -3.5. Both of these teams have 3-7 records but the Falcons reworked some things during their bye week and came back with two big upset wins on the road against two good teams, including a beat down of the Saints. Tampa Bay has lost 5 of their last 6 games. Both teams have strong passing attacks but Tampa Bay's pass defense has been leaky. Tampa Bay quarterback Jameis Winston has been a turnover machine and the Falcons recorded 11 sacks in their last two games. $32.00 to win $30.00. (loss)
3 team 10 point teaser, Falcons +6.5...Cowboys +15...Seahawks +11.5, $24.00 to win $20.00 (loss)
3 team 10 point teaser, Steelers/Bengals under 47.5...Seahawks +11.5...Ravens +7, $24.00 to win $20.00 (won)
Week 11: Cowboys at Lions, Pandy's Pick, Cowboys -7. I went against the Lions last week and won and I'm going to try them again. Dallas has not been consistent but they are highly ranked both offensively and defensively while the Lions defense has been bad. The Lions strength is their passing game but a lot of that has to do with gun-slinger QB Matthew Stafford, who is out again today. $22.00 to win $20.00. (won)
3 team 10 point teaser, Bills/Dolphins under 51...Cardinals +20...Raiders -0.5, $24.00 to win $20.00 (loss)
3 team 10 point teaser, Vikings - 0.5...Raiders -0.5...Bears/Rams under 50, $24.00 to win $20.00 (won)
3 team 10 point teaser, Jaguars +12.5...Jets +12.5...Texans/Ravens over 41.5, $24.00 to win $20.00 (loss)
Week 10: Chiefs at Titans, Pandy's Pick, Chiefs -6, $22.00 to win $20.00. The Chiefs are going to start Mahomes today but even without him they could be too much for the Titans, who don't have enough offensive fire power to come back if the Chiefs start out strong. (loss)
Lions at Bears, Pandy's Pick, Bears -6.5, $66.00 to win $60.00. Matthew Stafford, one of the most talented passers in the NFL, is out and Jeff Driskel takes over and he does not have good scouting reports, and has only been with the team for less than two months. This is a tough spot for Driskel against a good defense. Detroit's defense gives up a lot of yards and that should help the Bears offense, which has been terrible. (won)
3 team 10 point teaser, Chargers +9...Ravens even...Bills +13, $36.00 to win $30.00. (won)
Week 9: Packers at Chargers, Pandy's Pick, Packers -4. I should have bet this earlier in the week when the line was lower but I was busy with Breeders Cup and Meadowlands handicapping. Not much of an analysis here, the Chargers have under performed all year and the Packers and Aaron Rogers are hot, $33.00 to win $30.00. (loss)
3 team 10 point teaser, Colts +11...Packers +6...Ravens +14, $36.00 to win $30.00. (loss)
3 team 10 point teaser, Titans/Panthers under 52...Colts/Steelers under 50.5...Lions/Raiders over 41, $24.00 to win $20.00 (won)
Week 8: Seahawks at Falcons, Pandy's Pick, Seahawks -7, $22.00 to win $20.00. The Falcons defense is playing poorly and they may not have their starting quarterback here. Seattle's quarterback Russell Wilson leads the 6th best offense (yards gain) in the league and he's tough even when he gets pressure, but the Falcons haven't been able to mount a pass rush. (push)
3 team 10 point teaser, Giants +16.5...Buccaneers + 12.5...Panthers +15.5, $36.00 to win $30.00. (loss)
3 team 10 point teaser, Chargers/Bears under 51...Panthers/49ers under 51.5...Packers/Chiefs over 37.5, $24.00 to win $20.00. (loss)
Week 7: Jaguars at Bengals, Pandy's Pick, Jaguars -4.5. This line has gone up and I should have bet it earlier in the week. The key to the game is the injuries, the Bengals are missing both starting cornerbacks and they've already been giving up a ton of yards. $22.00 to win $20.00. (won)
Rams at Falcons, Pandy's Pick, Rams -3. The Falcons defense has completely fallen apart this year. They gave up 87 points in their last two games. The Rams are still in the fight and they need a win. $23.00 to win $20.00. (won)
3 team 10 point teaser, Saints +14...Raiders +15...Eagles +13, $36.00 to win $30.00. (loss)
3 team 10 point teaser, Texans +11.5...Raiders +15...49ers even, $24.00 to win $20.00. (loss)
Week 6: Saints at Jaguars, Pandy's Pick, Saints +3. I think the Saints are the best team in the NFL right now so I have to take them getting points, even though they're tougher at home. They did beat the Seahawks in Seattle, so it's not like they can't win a road game. The Saints are a well rounded team. The Jaguars offense is vastly improved this year but their defense is not as stout and the Saints should be able to run the ball effectively, $33.00 to win $30.00. (won)
3 team 10 point teaser, Saints +13...Eagles +13.5...Lions +13.5, $36.00 to win $30.00. (loss)
Week 5: Vikings at Giants, Pandy's Pick, Vikings -5. The Giants offense has been clicking with rookie Daniel Jones at QB, but they face a tough, physical defense here. The Vikings offensive line is also one of the best at run blocking so they can control the clock as well. $33.00 to win $30.00 (won)
Bears vs Raiders (in London), Pandy's Pick, Bears -5.5. The Bears offense has been lousy but their defense is suffocating and the Raiders haven't shown that they have the offensive speed to overcome this type of defense. I'll take the Bears in a low scoring game, $24.00 to win $20.00. (loss)
Falcons at Texans, Pandy's Pick: Texans -4. The Falcons are not showing the offensive speed that they have in the past and their running game is below par this year. Quarterback Matt Ryan has already thrown six interceptions and appears to be past his prime. The Texans still bring a lot of pressure and will be chasing veteran Matt Ryan down all day, $24.00 to win $20.00. (won)
3 team 10 point teaser, Rams +11.5...Patriots -5...Saints +7, $36.00 to win $30.00 (won)
3 team 10 point teaser, Vikings +4.5...Texans +6...Cowboys +7, $24.00 to win $20.00. (loss)
3 team 10 point teaser, Bears/Raiders under 50...Bills/Titans under 49...Packers/Cowboys under 57, $12.00 to win $10.00. (loss)
Week 4: 3 team 10 point teaser, Panthers +14.5...Browns +17...Rams +1, $36.00 to win $30.00. (won)
3 team 10 point teaser, Patriots/Bills under 51.5...Chiefs/Lions over 44...Cowboys/Saints over 37.5, $24.00 to win $20.00 (loss)
3 team 10 point teaser, Panthers +15 (line changed)...Browns +17...Jaguars +12.5, $24.00 to win $20.00. (won)
Week 3: Lions at Eagles, Pandy's Pick, Lions +6. The Lions have been competitive and the Eagles have several good players out with injuries, including their two best receivers, $33.00 to win $30.00. (won)
Rams at Browns, Pandy's Pick, Rams -3. The Browns have a good pass rush but I think the secondary can be suspect at this point. The Browns offense seems out of sync so far and they face a solid defense here. The Rams are a well coached team with a lot of talent, $33.00 to win $30.00. (won)
Saints at Seawhawks, Pandy's Pick, Saints +4.5. Teddy Bridgewater needed his last. No one can replace Drew Brees but Bridgewater should be better this week as he faces a secondary that seems to have issues; he's a good athlete who has a good team to work with here. The Saints defense has played well and does very well against the run, $33.00 to win $30.00 (won)
10 point 3 team teaser, Ravens/Chiefs over 42...Texans/Chargers over 38.5...Bears/Redskins under 51, $36.00 to win $30.00. (won)
10 point 3 team teaser, Bengals +16...Falcons + 11.5...Saints +14.5, $36.00 to win $30.00. (won)
10 point 3 team teaser, Lions +16...Bengals +16...Rams +7, $24.00 to win $20.00 (won)
Week 2: Seahawks at Steelers, Pandy's Pick, Steelers minus 3 1/2, $33.00 to win $30.00. The Steelers played poorly at New England last week but they usually come back with a strong effort off a bad win, especially at home. The Seahawks defense look vulnerable last week and they still have a lot to prove offensively. (loss)
3 team 10 point teaser, Steelers +6.5...Rams +8.5...Broncos +12, $48.00 to win $40.00 (won)
3 team 10 point teaser, Saints/Rams over 42 1/2...Bears/Broncos under 50...Eagles/Falcons over 42 1/2, $24.00 to win $20.00 (loss)
Week 1: Packers at Bears, Pandy's Pick: Bears -3 over Packers. The Bears defense was the best in the league at allowing the least amount of points last year. (loss, Packers defense much improved due to free agent acquistions...should've gone with the obvious under play) Minus $33.00
3 Team 10 point teaser, Eagles + 1...49ers +10...Lions +7.5, $36.00 to win $30.00 (won)
3 Team 10 point teaser, Bears +3...Eagles even...Seahawks + 1/2, $22 to win $27.50 (push)
Pandy's NFL Best Bets and NFL analysis, 2018 season
2018
record: 15-17 (minus $113.00)
Teasers: 16-12 (plus $219.00)
Parlay: 2-4 (minus $51.00)
Overall: plus $55.00
All odds-lines from bookmaker.eu
SUPER BOWL: Rams vs Patriots, Pandy's Pick, Patriots minus 1.5, $110.00 to win $100.00. I put my bet in on Sunday as soon as Bookmaker put the line up, and I got minus 1.5, and that's good enough for me. I had a nice profit on my personal NFL bets until the playoffs, now I'm about even and need to win this bet to show a profit. (won)
The two most talented teams, Chiefs and Saints are out, Patriots should roll. Last weekend was really a low point for the NFL. Yes, the games both went into overtime and were exciting, but the NFL has let this problem of blown calls by the officials go on and on for years and Sunday it hit a boiling point. The Saints were obviously robbed of win, and there were some terrible calls in the other game, too. Hopefully this will lead to some sort of replay reviews. There's no reason why the officials in the booths upstairs or in the main offices watching on TV can't stop the game for a quick video replay review when they see what looks like a questionable call or non call on the field. Of course, the Chiefs did what you can't do when playing the Patriots, they made mistakes. They had the game won but one of their defensive lineman lined up off sides. Amazing.
The Rams are certainly a talented team. They probably have more talent than the Patriots. But as we know, the Patriots usually beat teams that have better personal then them. The Rams have a fine defensive line and a good running attack but the Patriots defense has stiffened, which they always do this time of year, and the Patriots offense is just so well managed. This is a team that only has one superstar, their 41 year old quarterback, who's actually starting to shown signs that he's not as good as he once was (he would have had three interceptions against the Chiefs if not for the off sides). But Brady manages an offense better than anyone in the NFL, he gets rid of the ball quickly, rarely gets sacked, and the Patriots don't make mistakes. I think the Saints would have beaten the Patriots, but the Rams are really going to have to play their best and not make mistakes if they're going to have a chance.
Conference Championship: Pandy's Pick, Rams at Saints, Saints - 3.5, $53.00 to win $50.00. I think the Saints are good value laying 3.5 at home. They can stop the run, and overall, they have a better defense; and, they're very tough at home. The Rams defense has improved in the second half, but their offense has sputtered. They lost wide receiver Cooper Kupp in November, and that seemed to slow their offense. The Rams defense and running game did step up, however. But quarterback Jared Goff has cooled off, and this stadium is a tough one to play in if you're confidence is down. The Saints have done very well against the run, and their defense was actually as good as any defense in the NFL in the last six weeks of the season. The Saints match up well on offense, they are well balanced and have better receivers than the Rams, and they have an edge on defense, and the home field advantage. (lost)
Patriots at Chiefs, Pandy's Pick, Chiefs -3 over for $25.00. I don't like this as much as the Saints, but I do think the Chiefs have the advantage. The Patriots are virtually unbeatable at home, but the Patriots have lost three straight conference championship games on the road. This year, all five of their losses were on the road, all to non-playoff teams. That's why Belichick makes them work so hard to win during the season, he wants home field advantage throughout the playoffs, because that's how they got to so many Super Bowls. This team is similar to the Patriots the last few years, the defense started out slow and kept getting better. If they're going to win this game, the defense has to play big. The Chiefs have more talent, especially on offense. That's not always enough against the Patriots, because Bill Belichick out-coaches everyone. However, the Chiefs have a future Hall of Fame coach in Andy Reid, and Reid's teams have scored a lot of points against the Patriots over the years. The Chiefs have one of, if the the fastest wide receiver (Hill) in the NFL, and they also have Sammy Watkins, another talented receiver, who's only 25 years old. And they have a quality tight end and a super talented young quarterback. Kansas City also lead the NFL in sacking the QB, and pressuring Brady is the best way to beat him. The Chiefs defense has to play tight and try to stop the short passes and running game of the Patriots. The Patriots wide receivers aren't that fast, so you have to cover Edelman and the running backs and try to stop enough of those short passes. That's why the pass rush is key. If the Chiefs can pressure Brady, the Patriots will have to keep a running back in to block, and that hurts their short passing game. There's a lot of pressure on young QB Pat Mahomes, but if he doesn't make too many mistakes, the Chiefs should win this game. (lost)
Money line parlay: Chiefs and Saints, $30.00 to win $44.00 (lost)
Divisional
Round: Three team 10 point teaser,
$33.00 to win $27.50, Colts +15.5...Cowboys +17...Chargers +13 (lost)
Two team teaser, $22.00 to win $20.00, Colts/Chiefs over 51...Chargers/Pats
under 53 (lost)
Eagles at Saints, Pandy's Pick: Saints -8, $22.00 to win $20.00. In a way, the line looks correct, but I do think there's a chance at the Eagles lose by a couple of TDs. The Saints are made to play in this dome. They can do it all, they can run, pass, and their defense is underrated and solid. They Eagles are a good team but I don't think they're as good as they were at this time last year. They don't have a good running game, and their secondary gives up a lot of yards. The Saints can pressure the QB and stop the run. The Eagles played well last week, beating a tough team in the Bears, but the Bears made a few critical mistakes, especially the TD pass by Foles when the Bears only had 10 men on the field. The Bears blew the game. I don't think the Saints are going to make mistakes like that. (lost)
Cowboys at Rams, Pandy's Pick: Cowboys +7, $22 to win $20.95. The Rams have not been as dominant offensively later in the year, and their run defense has been horrible, giving up an average of over 5 yards a carry. The Cowboys have a solid defense. Offensively, the Cowboys aren't dynamic, but they're solid and they can run the football. (lost)
I am reluctant to bet two of the games, but here's my analysis: Colts at Chiefs. The Chiefs are favored by 5 points. It's snowing. My feeling is, The Chiefs offense is potent, even without Kareen Hunt, who was cut from the team and suspended. However, I do think they'll miss Hunt here. But The Chiefs defense is suspect. The Colts have the best offensive line in the league when it comes to running the ball. Marlon Mack ran for 148 yards against a strong front seven last week, and he also ran well against the Titans defense. The Colts offensive line could be the key to this game. The Colts defense has also played well, but this is a big test because the Chiefs QB Mahomes, is a superstar.
As for the Chargers at Patriots, The Patriots are favored by four points. The Chargers have more speed and talent, but as we know, the Patriots often beat teams that have more speed and talent. When the Patriots lost receiver Josh Gordon to injury, that hurt. The Chargers have played well on the road this year and if they don't make too many mistakes, they can upset. But, I can't bring myself to take the four points because the Patriots are so much tougher in this stadium. I've hit many bets against the Patriots. I won four Super Bowls betting against the Patriots. But those games were not in Foxboro. I don't know what it is, but they are always so tough to beat in this stadium.
Wild Card Weekend: Eagles at Bears, Pandy's Pick, Bears -6 for $50.00. I should have bet this earlier when the line was 5.5, but it is what it is. For a couple of months, I've felt that the Bears may be a Super Bowl team. They have the best defense in football and it's a well rounded defense that can rush the passer, cover, and they're ranked 1st against the run and 1st in points allowed, plus they have the best scoring defense with a league leading 27 interceptions. The Eagles are playing well and Nick Foles is a sharp shooter at QB, but he's been putting up these big numbers against defenses that are not in this class. On offense, Chicago has enough talent to score, and they should get good field position because of their defense. The Eagles pass defense is ranked 30th. (lost)
Colts at Texans, Pandy's Pick: Colts +2 for $25.00. The Colts have done a great job of protecting Andrew Luck, who was injured a couple of years ago. The defense is also playing well and has improved steadily. The Texans are a solid team but their pass defense, in the secondary, is ranked 28th, shaky. Their defense is dependent on their front 7, which is one of the best in the NFL. The Colts match up well though because they have a good offensive line. On offense, the Texans QB Deshaun Watson is a great athlete but recent injuries to key players, such as wide receiver Demarious Thomas, may make it tough for him as the Colts might be able to get away with double covering DeAndre Hopkins, who is a great receiver. (won)
Seahawks at Cowboys, Pandy's Pick, Cowboys - 2.5 for $20.00. This seems to me like a tough one to handicap. Seattle beat the Cowboys earlier in the year, but the Cowboys offense was struggling back then. This line has moved, as a lot of money came in on the Cowboys. Dallas has a solid defense, 6th in points allowed, and the offense has come around. The Seahawks do not have a great defense anymore, although they play well in the Red Zone, and they're certainly not a bad defense, but they give up yards. Seattle's offense is built around a very strong running game, the best in the NFL. But I think that Dallas has the defense to win this, particularly because the Seahawks are not a great road team, they're much tougher at home. (lost)
Two team teaser, Bears - 1/2 and Colts + 8, $33.00 to win $30.00. (lost)
Week 17: It gets tricky this time of the year because you don't know who's going to be trying all-out to win once teams lock up playoff spots, which I took into consideration.
Cowboys at Giants, Pandy's Pick: Giants -5.5, $55.00 to win $50.00. The Cowboys have nothing to play for here, they have already locked up their playoff spot. They may start their starters but in the past they've pulled them early when they don't need to win, and they don't need this game. The Giants will be trying to get Barkley the rookie of the year award. (lost)
Money line parlay, $33.00 to win $75: Giants over Cowboys (Cowboys will rest their starters)...Eagles over Redskins (Eagles still need to win, Redskins banged up)...Ravens over Browns (Ravens defense and running attack control the game)...Steelers over Bengals (Steelers must win to have a shot at Playoffs)...Seahawks over Cardinals (Seahawks try to lock up the 5th seed) (lost)
Three team 10 point teaser, $24.00 to win $20.00: Giants + 4.5...Chiefs -4...Seahawks -3. (won)
Three team 10 point teaser, $24 to win $20.00: Jets/Patriots under 57...Jaguars/Texas under 50...Dolphins/Bills under 49.5 (lost)
Week 16: Jaguars at Dolphins, Pandy's Pick: Dolphins -3.5, $33.00 to win $30.00. Miami beat the Patriots in dramatic fashion two back, and they beat the Bears and Titans this year. But they faltered badly against the Vikings last week. Miami still have a shot to make the playoffs. Both of these teams have weak offenses, but the Jaguars have only scored a total of 28 points in their last three games. (lost)
Buccaneers at Cowboys, Pandy's Pick: Cowboys -7, $26.00 to win $25.00. The Cowboys laid an egg last week, getting shut out, but they need to step it up here and they face a team that has a hard time stopping the run. Tampa Bay has one of the top passing attacks in the NFL, on paper, but their offense has been slowing down recently and they face a solid Cowboy defense here. Tampa Bay has also struggled on the road this year. (push)
Three team 10 point teaser, $30.00 to win $25.00, Titans even...Colts + 1/2...Cowboys +3 (won)
Three team 10 point teaser, $25.00 to win $20.00, Bills at Patriots, under 54 1/2...Packers at Jets, Jets +12.5....Texans at Eagles, Texans +12.5 (won)
Money line three team parlay: $39.00 to win $30.00, Colts, Rams, Cowboys. (won)
Week 15: Three team 10 point teaser, $60.00 to win $50.00...Cowboys at Colts, Cowboys +13...Redskins/Jaguars under 47...Seahawks at 49ers, Seahawks +6.5 (lost)
Week 14: Giants at Redskins, Pandy's Pick: Giants -3, $50.00 to win $40.00. This line has been all over the place this week, but as of Saturday morning is -3, dropping because the Giants star WR Beckham is out for this game. The Redskins have a ton of key injuries and their starting QB, Mark Sanchez, just got signed a couple of weeks ago. Sanchez is usually good for a couple of turnovers. (won)
Three team 10 point teaser, $36.00 to win $30.00...Jaguars at Titans under 47.5...Saints at Buccaneers, Saints +1...Steelers at Raiders, Steelers even (lost)
Three team 10 point teaser, $36.00 to win $30.00...Ravens at Chiefs, Ravens +16...Panthers at Browns, Browns + 10...Jets at Buffalo, under 48 (lost)
Week 13: Bears at Giants, Pandy's Pick: Bears - 3.5. I just bet this at 11:38 eastern time on Thursday night, the line dropped. I'm still not sure who will be at quarterback for the Bears but their defense is brutally tough and the Giants offense is very inconsistent, even though they have talent. The play calling for the Giants is not very creative. The Giants defense has been disappointing. The key to this game may be the Bears pass rush against Eli Manning, who is clearly past his prime. (lost)
Chiefs at Raiders, Pandy's Pick: Chiefs - 8 first half, $22 to win $20.00. I rarely do this but in case Oakland gets a back door cover in garbage time I'll take a shot with the Chiefs to come out hot and cover the spread for the first half. The line on the game is -14 as of this writing. The first half line dropped to 8 after the Chiefs lost their start running back. (won)
Two team parlay on the money line, $20.00 to win $53.00 Colts over Jaguars and Chargers over Steelers. (lost)
Four team parlay on the money line, $20.00 to win $28.00, Ram...Chiefs...Bears...Seahawks (lost)
Three team 10 point teaser, $36.00 to win $30.00, Bills +13.5...Broncos +5...Colts +6 (push, no bet)
Three team 10 point teaser, $30.00 to win $25.00, Chargers +13...Bills +13.5...Vikings +15 (won)
Three team 10 point teaser, $24.00 to win $20.00, Falcons + 7.5...Chief -4...Seahawks even (lost)
Saints at Cowboys, Pandy's Pick: Saints -7 for $50.00. The Cowboys had problems in the passing game until getting young wide receiver Amari Cooper, who has helped them tremendously, not only in the passing game, but in the running game, which has perked up since he came in. The Cowboys also have a solid defense, especially against the run. As for the Saints, they've excelled defending the run but since they score so much, that number may be a bit suspect; we'll find out tonight because the Cowboys will try to run the ball with their star back. But the Saints have so many weapons. They can run and quarterback Drew Brees has been sensational this year. He seems to be able to pass accurately to several receivers and backs. The Cowboys have allowed an average of 291 passing yards per game throughout their three game win streak, and the secondary will get severely tested here. Another thing that makes the Saints so tough, they are doing a very good job of protecting pocket-passer Brees, who has been sacked a league low 10 times this year. The Saints can run, too, and they have two top shelf running backs. This is an elite offense, and the Saints have an improving defense that has been forcing turnovers. (lost)
Week 12: Three team parlay on the money line, $20 to win $22, Ravens, Chargers, Vikings. (won)
Three team 10 point teaser, $40 to win $33.00, Colts +2.5 vs Dolphins...Seahawks +13 vs Panthers...Browns +13 vs Bengals (won)
Three team 10 point teaser, $30 to win $25, Giants + 14.5 vs Eagles...Seahawks +13 vs Panthers...Vikings +7 vs Packers (won)
Week 11: Texans at Redskins, Pandy's Pick: Texans -3 for $50.00. Both teams are 6-3 and both have solid defenses. Give the Redskins credit for somehow holding Tampa Bay to only 3 points last week, even though the Buccaneers gained over 500 yards, which was the first time that's ever happened in NFL history. But the Redskins have a lot of injuries on offense, including three starting offensive linemen out, two out for the season. They didn't have a potent offense in the first place but with all of the injuries, they should struggle to score points when they face a good defense. The Texans got off to a rocky start this year but have now won 7 games in a row. They have a solid defense and a good pass rush, and the offense has gotten the job done. The Texans also come off a bye so they are healthier than the Redskins by a clear margin. (lost, Texans won by 2)
Buccaneers at Giants, Pandy's Pick: Giants - 1.5 for $50.00. I put this bet in Friday before the line moved and I got minus 1.5. On Sunday, bookmaker moved the line to -3. The Giants offense is puzzling, they struggle to score even tough they have three of the fastest players in the league on the field most of the time. But last week their offensive line played much better and here they are pitted against a poor defense in Tampa Bay, a team that is last in the league in points allowed at over 32 points a game. The Giants defense has been playing better recently. (won)
Three team 10 point teaser, $24 to win $20, Tampa Bay/Giants over 42...Raiders/Cardinals under 51...Chiefs/Rams over 53 (won)
Three team 10 point teaser $25 to win $20, Giants +7 vs Bucs...Texans + 7 vs Redskins...Titans + 11 1/2 vs Colts (lost)
Week 10: Saints at Bengals, Pandy's Pick: Saints -6 for $30. The Saints are rolling on offense and the Bengals defense has not been good this year, as they are ranked 32nd (last) in total yards and passing yards. The Bengals are also missing their star wide receiver A J Green, who is often the difference maker when they win. (won)
Chargers at Raiders, Pandy's Pick: Chargers -10 for $30. The Chargers have been playing extremely well and the Raider's defense has been getting torched. Further complicating things for Oakland, they don't have much speed on offense. (won)
Cowboys at Eagles, Pandy's Pick: Eagles -7 for $30.00. The Eagles come off a bye and even though this is a divisional game, the Eagles should cover the spread. The Cowboys do two things well, play defense, and run the ball. The Eagles defense is second in the NFL at stopping the run. This puts the pressure on the Cowboys to pass and they don't have enough weapons. The Eagles are a much better balanced team and they need to win this home game. (lost)
$36 ten point three team teaser: Chargers even...Saints +4...Giants +13.5 (won)
Week 9: Lions at Vikings, Pandy's Pick: Vikings -4.5 for $50.00. The Vikings played well at times against the tough New Orleans Saints last week but bad coaching decisions (throwing an incomplete pass on 4th an inches on their own 48 yard line in the second quarter, and they had an empty backfield!) and a few mistakes took them out of the game. The Lions traded their best wide receiver this week. (won)
Bucs at Panthers, Pandy's Pick: Panthers -6 for $50.00. The Panthers are a solid team and Tampa Bay's defense leaves much to be desired. (won)
$60 ten point three team teaser: Steelers/Ravens, Steelers +12...Texans/Broncos, Texans +11.5...Rams/Saints, over 48 (won)
Week 8: I posted this in mid-week when the line was even. Redskins at Giants, Pandy's Pick: Redskins even. The Redskins defense is solid, which is bad news for a dysfunctional Giants offense that can't get out of its own way. The Giants started to trade some players this week, as they have given up on the season. Washington is 4-2 and has a lot to play for. The line is low because these two teams have a history of close games, but the Redskins are clearly a better team. (won)
Buccaneers at Bengals, Pandy's Pick: Bengals - 4. The Buccanneers defense has struggled and they are without two starting linemen. The Bengals were blown out by the Chiefs last week so this is a big game for them at home, and they have an offense that can win a shootout. (lost, Bengals won by 3)
$60 ten point three team teaser: Redskins/Giants, Redskins +9...Bengals/Buccanneers, Bengals +6...Vikings/Saints, Vikings +12 (won)
Week 7: Titans Vs Chargers (in London), Pandy's Pick: Chargers - 6.5 for $50. The Chargers have a strong offense, and not just because of their sharp passer Phillip Rivers. They can run the ball, too. They also have a good pash rush. The Titans were shut out last week and their quarterback was sacked 11 times. They have a solid defense, but their offense is a mess right now. (lost)
$60 ten point three team teaser: Vikings/Jets over 35.5...Rams/49ers over 42.5...Redskins +11 (won)
Week 6: Bucs at Falcons, Pandy's Pick: Falcons -3 for $50. Both teams have problems on defense, with the Falcons hurt by injuries. But Tampa Bay gave up 6 TD passes to the Bears last week, and they're not a top offensive team. This is desperation time for the Falcons as they need to go all-out to get back on track at home. They should be able to score and move the ball against one of the weakest defenses in the NFL. (won)
$60 three team 10 point teaser: Vikings even...Steelers +12...Falcons +7. (won)
$25 three team 10 point teaser: Dolphins/Bears under 51.5...Jaguars/Cowboys under 50...Falcons/Titans under 52 (lost)
Week 5: $50.00 three team 10 point teaser: Lions +9, Redskins + 16, Broncos +9 (lost)
Week 3: all picks $50.00
Bengals at Panthers, Pandy's pick: Bengals + 3. The Bengals have been solid so far and they have a good pass rush. Carolina's offense does not seem that strong. But the main reason for the pick here is that the Bengals come into this game with an edge because Carolina has several key injuries. (lost)
Packers at Redskins, Pandy's pick: Redskins + 3. I'm not sure how good the Packers are, and they tend to struggle on the road early in the season. The Redskins defense has been pretty good. (won)
Three
team 10 point teasers: Redskins + 13...Bengals + 13...Chargers + 17 (won)
Ravens/Broncos under 55.5...Eagles/Colts under 56.5...Chiefs/49ers over 45
(won)
Week 2: all picks $50.00
Panthers at Falcons, Pandy's pick: Falcons -6. The Falcons kept it close against the Super Bowl Champ Eagles last week. The Panthers managed to beat the Cowboys but the Panthers have a lot of key injuries and they could struggle to score points against this quick Falcons defense. (won)
Giants at Cowboys, Pandy's pick: Giants +3. The Giants offense was once again underwhelming last week but they did play a top tier defense. They do have weapons on offense, but haven't been putting it together. The Cowboys offense looked pretty bad last week, with offensive line problems, and they have lost two of the long time veteran receivers. I expect this to be a relatively low-scoring game but I think the Giants are a better team. (lost)
Eagles at Buccaneers, Pandy's pick: Eagles -3. The Eagles offense didn't look that good last week, but they were playing a quick Falcons defense. The key to this game, the Eagles defense, which was good last year, is potentially even better now. Tampa Bay's offense came up huge last week but that was against the Saints. This week, Tampa faces a much better defense in every aspect. (lost)
Vikings at Packers, Pandy's pick: Vikings -3. I liked the Vikings last week and I'm going to stick with them again here. As we know, QB Aaron Rogers is supposed to start this game but he is nursing an injured leg and that will be tough to deal with against this terrific Vikings defense. I also didn't think that the Green Bay defense looked that good against the Bulls last week. The Bulls don't appear to have a lot of offensive speed. (lost)
Three Team 10 point teaser, Texans + 6.5....Giants + 13...Jaguars +11 for $50 (won)
Three Team 10 point teaser, Vikings +7...Eagles + 7...Broncos + 3.5 for $50 (won)
Week 1:
Bills at Ravens, Pandy's pick: Ravens -7.5. The Bills try a new quarterback this year and he'll face a solid defense. The Bills have a lot to prove. (won)
49ers at Vikings, Pandy's pick: Vikings -6.5. The Vikings defense was stellar last year and the 49ers defense has a few injuries. New QB Kirk Cousins takes over for Minnesota, and he can get hot. (won)
2017 SEASON
2017 record vs spread: 9-18, minus $680.00
2017 teaser record: 7-8, minus $280
I wish I had bet against my NFL picks this year, tough year. But I made up for some of the loss in the Super Bowl.
Sunday, February 4, Eagles vs Patriots, Pandy's Pick: Eagles + 5.5. I posted my pick early, and i bet early and I got 5.5 points, but the line has dropped to the Patriots favored by 4.5, and some big gambler bet $1 million on the Eagles in Vegas. I've bet the last six Super Bowls that involved the Patriots and I won my bet in five of them, with the only loss last year, when they made that big comeback against the Falcons. Five times I bet against them and won four of those bets. The trick to beating the Patriots is usually the same, you have to pressure Tom Brady, and you have to be able to get first downs so you can keep the Patriots offense off the field. What makes it so tough to beat the Patriots is their coaching, which is the best in the history of the NFL. It's pretty amazing, really. Since Tom Brady took over as QB, he has missed 20 games due to injury of suspension. The Patriots record in those games is 14-6! Yep, they have a Hall of Fame quarterback who some say is the best ever, yet when he doesn't play, their win percentage with a second string quarterback is just as good. That's proof that no one can come close to this organization when it comes to managing and preparing a football team. And, regardless of how you feel about Coach Bill Belichick, he is a football genius. The Patriots are often not the best team on the field, in terms on speed, talent, etc., but even when they're getting blown out by a better team, like they were in the first half of last year's SB, they make the adjustments and come back. (won)
In this game, the Eagles clearly beat the better teams to get to the Super Bowl, as they beat the best defense in the NFL, the Vikings, and they beat the talented Atlanta Falcons, holding them to only ten points. The Eagles have a good pass rush, but I hope they blitz enough here. Some teams play way too conservatively against the Patriots, and you can't do that. The Eagles can run the ball and that could be a key to the game. I think the Eagles are a more talented team. But they can't make too mistakes and they have to play aggressively. One thing I noticed when handicapping the game, although the Patriots defense, which started the year horribly, has played very well down the stretch, they haven't played top offensive teams. So they should get a stern test against the potent and balanced Eagles offensive attack. So here we go again, another Patriots Super Bowl. Usually, whether they win or lose, the games are close. (won)
Sunday, January 21: Jaguars at Patriots, Pandy's Pick, Patriots -7 for $60.00. The line dropped a little because of the possibility that star QB Tom Brady plays hurt or misses the game all together. He hurt a finger on his throwing hand in practice. The Jaguars best chance here is to pressure Brady, and they are not called "Sacksonville" for nothing, they are second in the NFL in sacks. The Patriots are the best home team in NFL history, they are really tough to beat in New England. Brady will get try to get rid of the ball quick and spread his passes around to a variety of targets including his running backs. This is how the Patriots deal with a strong defense like the Jaguars, they run them ragged with a hurry up offense and passes to different spots on the field. The Jaguars have power running backs but Belichick will probably crowd the line of scrimmage and try to make QB Blake Bortles beat him. If the Jaguars running game is working, they have a shot to make it a close game. Bortles played well last week but is erratic. For the Jaguars to win, Bortles has to play a good game and he has to hurt the Patriots with his legs. Bortles is a good athlete and if he can hit some passes downfield it will open up the field and he may be able to secure some first downs with his legs. But the Patriots prepare for these big games better than any team in NFL history. They don't always have the best personal in the league, but they have the best coach by a mile, and a cagey quarterback who makes the clutch passes down the stretch. (loss)
Vikings at Eagles, Pandy's Pick, Vikings -3 for $25.00. This is an interesting game pitting two solid back up quarterbacks and two tough defenses. Since Nick Foles took over for superstar Carson Wentz, the Eagles have relied on their defense and Foles has managed the offense okay. However, Foles has not shown the kind of down field passing accuracy that he had a few years ago when he made the all-star team. This could be the key to the game because the Vikings have a very good secondary. Last week the Saints scored 24 points against the Vikings and got on a roll in the second half, but if you watched the game, you saw that QB Drew Brees was throwing pinpoint passes. Brees had a great year this year and hit a remarkable 72% of his passes. The Vikings cornerbacks had good coverage last week, but Brees kept putting the ball right on the money. Can Nick Foles do that? Another factor is the pass rush. Both of these teams are capable of pressuring and sacking the quarterback. Both of these quarterbacks can be vulnerable under pressure. Case Keenum had a strong 98 passer rating and was only intercepted 7 times in 15 regular season starts this year and he ran the ball 40 times for 160 yards, an excellent average of 4 yards per carry. Foles is not as athletic and needs to have solid pass protection. For the Eagles to win, they have to play a big defensive game and somehow get their running backs into the game, perhaps with short passes. The home field advantage has been a big edge in these conference championship games. The Vikings have good wide receivers, a great defense, and a quarterback who can run the ball when he needs to get a key first town.
Sunday, January 14: Saints at Vikings, Pandy's Pick, Vikings -5 for $60.00. I should have bet this early in the week, the line opened at -4. This could be a great game. There are two things that are obvious, one is that the Saints have a great QB and the Vikings don't. The other is that the Vikings have a great defense, big, fast, and well coached. As for the quarterbacks, since week 10 of the season, Case Keenum has the highest passer rating in the league. Both teams are solid and well rounded. Both teams run the ball well but I think the Vikings will have the edge running in this game. The Saints defense, especially their secondary, is much improved this year. I think the Vikings are just a better team and they can force a few turnovers with their outstanding defense. (push)
Wildcard Weekend: Titans at Chiefs, Pandy's Pick: Titans +8.5, $60.00. Tennessee isn't flashy but they play solid defense and run the ball well. This could be a low scoring, grind it out game. (won)
Panthers at Saints, Pandy's Pick: Saints - 6.5, $60.00. The Saints, like most of the NFL teams this year, have had their inconsistencies but they are a solid team. Their secondary surprised me at times this year, providing good pass coverage and the Saints are 10th in the NFL in points allowed per game. The Panthers receivers have trouble getting open, the Panthers rank 28th in the NFL in pass offense, and it's hard to win in the playoffs if you can't complete passes downfield. (lost)
Week 18: Redskins at Giants, Pandy's Pick: Redskins -3, $125.00. Both of these teams have been hurt by injuries, but the Redskins have been resilient behind quarterback Kirk Cousins and come off two game wins where the offense performed well against two tough defenses and the defense held its ground. The Giants have lost five in a row and three since the coaching change and they just got shut out. In this game, they lose one of their starting cornerbacks, who is suspended, and to make matters worse, both of Manning's best receivers, Engram and Shepard, are out with injuries. The Giants may try out rookie David Webb at quarterback, which would be a tough spot for him since the Giants have no weapons. These teams usually play close games but the Redskins have a clear advantage here. (lost)
Jets at Patriots, Pandy''s Pick: Patriots minus 15, $50.00. The Patriots will be trying because if they win, they get a bye. The Jets are a good team and they often play the Patriots tough, but the Jets will either have Byrce Petty or a rookie who has never taken a snap at QB today, in frigid conditions that favor Tom Brady and the Patriots, especially at home. The Patriots like to run up the score when they need a win. Their defense, which started the season dismally, has been playing much better, and they have the number one offense in football. (won)
49ers at Rams, Pandy's Pick: 49ers minus 4 for $50.00. The 49ers are hot with their new QB and the Rams will be resting their best players. (won)
10 point three team teaser for $60, Patriots -5...Redskins +7....Cardinals +18.5 (lost)
Week 17: Raiders at Eagles, Pandy's Pick, Eagles -9 for $65.00. (lost)
10 point three team teaser for $100.00, Falcons/New Orleans, Falcons +16...Broncos/Redskins under 50.5...Eagles +1 (won)
Week 16: Eagles at Giants, Pandy's Pick, Eagles -7.5. The Eagles lost their star quarterback to a season-ending injury last week but backup QB Nick Foles is still young (28), and still good. He was once an all-start quarterback on a team that wasn't as good as this one. Last week the first four drives he played in ended in four field goals for the Eagles. The Giants defense occasionally steps up their game but they're inconsistent and the Giants offense, which has been riddled with injuries, has been bad. Quarterback Eli Manning has made me money over the years but last year and this year he just hasn't been that sharp. The Eagles can do it all, they run the ball well, pass well, and they can pressure the quarterback. The Giants offensive line hasn't been that good. (lost)
10 point three team teaser for $60.00, Bengals/Vikings, Vikings -2...Jets/Saints, Saints -6...Cardinals/Redskins, Cardinals +14 (won)
Week 15: 10 point three team teaser for $60.00, Chiefs/Raiders over 38...Lions at Buccaneers, Bucs +10...Ravens at Steelers, Ravens +14.5 (won)
Week 14: Rams at Cardinals, Pandy's Pick: Rams -7, for $65.00. The Rams crushed the Cardinals earlier this year, on a neutral field, and that's when the Cardinals were a lot healthier than they are now. Last week the Cardinals did upset Jacksonville, but Jacksonville's offense is built around the run and the only thing the Cardinals have done well this year is defend against the run. The Rams seem to have too much talent compared to the Cardinals right now. (won)
10 point three team teaser for $125.00, Lions +13...Vikings +12.5...Dolphins +12 (lost)
Thanksgiving Day, Vikings at Lions, Pandy's Pick: Vikings -3 for $65.00. The Vikings lost to the Lions at home earlier in the year but committed key turnovers in that game. Their offense is clicking, they have a top five defense. The Lions have won three straight but beat a Rogers-less Green Bay team, the Bears, and the Browns. The Vikings are a better overall team. (won)
Bears at Eagles, Pandy's Pick, Eagles -13.5 for $65.00. Not much to say here, big spread but Chicago's offense isn't that good and they face an Eagles team that is firing on all cylinders. (won)
10 point three team teaser for $125.00, Falcons even...Eagles -3.5...Ravens +3. (won)
Week 12: Patriots vs Raiders on neutral field (Mexico City), Pandy's Pick, Patriots - 6.5. The Patriots defense has steadily come around but the key to this game may be the Raider's defense, which has been vulnerable to a good passing game, against the Patriots number 1 ranked offense. (won)
10 point three team teaser, Cardinals +12.5...Saints + 1/2 point...Chiefs even. (lost)
Week 11: Chargers at Jaguars, Pandy's Pick, Jaguars -5.5, $65.00. I should have bet this earlier in the week, it opened two points lower. The Jaguars young talent is finally showing and they have one of the best defensive teams in the NFL. (lost)
Packers at Bears, Pandy's Pick, Bears -5.5, $65.00. The Packers are not the same without their superstar QB and the Bears are playing very good defense now, and they have a young quarterback with potential. (lost)
Three team 10 point teaser for $50.00, Lions-Bears under 54...Steelers-Colts over 35...Bears-Packers under 47.5 (lost)
Week 10: Bills at Jets, Pandy's Pick: Bills -3, $50.00. Buffalo has been forcing turnovers, running the ball well, and playing good defense. They are tough to run against. The Jets have played well and obviously are better than many experts predicted they'd be but the Bills are solid playoff contenders. (lost)
Raiders at Dolphins, Pandy's Pick: Raiders -3. The Raiders gave the game away with mistakes last week but the Dolphins have struggled and seem to have lost interest. Jay Cutler comes back this week but the offense hasn't played well for him. (push)
Week 9: Panthers at Bucaneers, Pandy's Pick: Panthers +1.5 for
$65.00. Tampa Bay's defense has struggled this year so the edge on defense goes
to the Panthers. As for offense, the Panthers have been inconsistent but they
did move the ball well in their last two games, even though they gave up
turnovers and lost both games. They just seem like the better team here. (won)
49ers at Eagles, Pandy's Pick, 49ers +13 for $65.00. The Eagles lost two defensive starters in season ending injuries last week. They come off a division win over the Redskins on Monday night and could be in a letdown spot. Of course, the Eagles may just be the best team in the NFL and they could blow this game out under what is going to be very rough windy and rainy conditions. But the 49ers have kept most of their games close and they have a solid front four. (lost)
Teaser: 10 point $100.00 teaser, Houston at Seattle, under 55.5....Steelers at Lions, under 56.5...Raiders at Bills, Raiders +12 (lost)
Week 8: Seahawks at Giants, Pandy's Pick, Seahawks - 3.5, $65.00. The Giants surprised at Denver last week as they ran the ball efficiently against the top run defense in the NFL. But Seattle will take the run away today and force the Giants to try and beat them passing, against one of the top passing defenses in football. (won)
Teaser: 10 point $100.00 teaser, Falcons at Patriots, Falcons +13...Redskins at Eagles, Redskins +15...Seahawks at Giants, under 50 (lost)
Week 7: Giants at Broncos, Pandy's Pick, Broncos - 11 1/2, $150.00. The Giants are 0 and 5 and that was when they had their starters. Last week they lost both of their starting wide receivers, their slot receiver, and their punt returner, who would have started at wide receiver this week. And they have other key injuries. This week they go against a defense that is ranked first in yards and rushing yards. The Giants can't run the ball anyway and now they've lost all of their top receivers. The Giants defense would normally be competitive against the Broncos, who do not have a high powered offense, but, I think the Giants defense will get tired as I can't see the Giants offense staying on the field long, especially in the thin mountain air. (lost)
Teaser: 10 point $100.00 teaser, Eagles at Panthers, Eagles +13 1/2...Patriots at Jets, Patriots + 1...Browns at Texans, Texans even. (won)
Week 6: Chiefs at Texans, Pandy's Pick, Texans $50.00 (pk). The Texans rookie QB gets a test against a top team this week but he has looked good and the Texans defense figures to be tough at home. (lost)
10 point $100.00 teaser: Lions at home against the Bengals, Lions +7.5...Texans at home against the Chiefs, Texans +10...Bills at Bengals, Bills + 13. (won)
10 point $100.00 teaser: Cardinals +16.5 at Eagles...Packers +13 at Cowboys...Chargers +13 at Giants. (lost)
Week 5: Thursday pick, Patriots at Buccaneers, Pandy's Pick, $50.00 over 52.5....The Patriots defense is off to a horrendous start, ranked last in the NFL, but the offense is clicking, as usual. Tampa Bay's defense is also ranked low but the offense is doing well. I bet the over here and I did get 52.5 this morning. (lost)
Week 4: 3 team 10 point $100.00 teaser: Giants at Tampa Bay, Giants +13...Titans at Texans, Titans + 7.5...Bengals at Browns, Bengals +7. (lost)
Week 3: Saints at Panthers, Pandy's Pick, $50.00 Panthers -5.5. The Saints defense has been abysmal so far and their solid offense will face a tougher defense here. (lost)
Steelers at Bears, Pandy's Pick: $50.00 Steelers -7. The Bears are struggling without Jay Cutler and the Steelers defense is improved and playing well. (lost)
Dolphins at Jets, Pandy's Pick: $50.00 Dolphins -6. This is usually a tough division match up but the Jets haven't done much offensively or defensively. The Dolphins have Jay Cutler now, and he is the best quarterback they've had since Marino retired. (lost)
3 team 10 point $50.00 teaser: Panthers +4.5...Steelers +3...Dolphins +4. (lost)
Week 2: 3 team, 10 point $100.00 teaser: Raiders - 3.5.....Redskins +12.5....Lions +13 (won)
Week 1: Against the spread pick, $50.00 Falcon's at Bears, Pandy's pick, Falcons -6.5. Yes, the Falcons collapsed in the Super Bowl and should have won the game, but they have a quick, young, defense, and a potent offense. The Bears lost their best wide receiver to injury. (loss, Falcons won by 6)
THE NFL 2016 SEASON
Teaser
record 13-5 +$695.00
Record vs spread in regular picks 7-12
Super Bowl Record: I started posting my Super Bowl pick on my website 16 years ago, 10-6 now.
Pandy's Super Bowl pick: Falcons vs Patriots, Falcons +3. It's hard to believe that once again I have to analyze a Super Bowl that has the Patriots in it. The last four times the Patriots played in the Super Bowl, I won my bet. I took the points with the Eagles, Giants, Giants. The Eagles covered, and the Giants covered and won outright. Then two years ago I took the Patriots to beat the Seahawks, which they did. (loss)
This year's match up is very interesting, basically the top offense against the top defense. It will be interesting to see how Belichick tries to slow down the potent Falcons offense, which has so many weapons. Matty Ice threw touch downs to 13 different players this season, and they have two good running backs. My guess is that Belichick will drop as many in coverage as possible and let the Falcons try to run the ball. But, he could also trying blitzing. You never know with this guy.
The Falcons defense is young and quick and they've been playing well the second half of the season. The key to beating the Patriots is usually, pressure Brady. The Falcons can rush the quarterback, but they do it best when blitzing, and the Patriots are a tough team to blitz because they'll use quick passes to get the ball out of Brady's hands.
Another interesting part of this game, will the Patriots use their potent no huddle offense, or try to slow the game down to keep the Falcons' hot offense off the field?
The Patriots are the most well coached team, by far, in professional sports. What they've accomplished during the Belichick era is amazing. Some people say they win because of Tom Brady, but Brady missed the 2008 season and he missed a playoff game early in his career, and he missed the first three games of this year. The Patriots record in those games, without Tom Brady playing, is 15-6! And they actually won 8 games in a row during one stretch, without Brady. And in 14 of those wins, they had a second string quarterback who was an average player at best.
That's the amazing thing about this organization. Belichick has this down to a science, and it almost seems that it doesn't matter what players he puts on the field. He teaches them to win. This year the Patriots quarterbacks have only thrown four interceptions! The Patriots are a team that doesn't make a lot of mistakes.
I do think that the Patriots had the easier schedule this year, when compared to the Falcons. And I think the Falcons offense is so hot, and so talented, that they can move the ball and score on any defense in the NFL. I'll take the Falcons to use their team speed to post the upset.
Sunday, February 5: Super Bowl. I'll have my Super Bowl analysis later this week but I have a teaser pick already, and I just made this bet this morning (Monday, January 23).
Super Bowl two team 7 point teaser, Pandy's Pick: Falcons vs Patriots, Falcons +10, under 66. (won)
Packers at Falcons, Pandy's Pick: Falcons -5. I don't like the Falcons as much in this game as I did against Seattle, because Green Bay is hot and they may have a chance in a shoot out, and because everyone seems to be picking the Falcons. But, the Falcons offense just seems too much for the Green Bay defense. The Falcons can run the ball, they have the best wide receiver in football, and their hot QB Matty Ice completed passes to eight different receivers last week. (won)
Saturday, January 14: Seahawks at Falcons, Pandy's Pick: Falcons - 6.5. The Falcons lost to the Seahawks in Seattle earlier this year, but their offense is playing amazingly well. In four of their last five wins, their defense held their opponent to under 20 points, so their defense is playing better. The Seahawks are without their all star safety Earl Thomas. The Falcons offense is well balanced and can attack like no other offense in football. (won)
Wild Card Weekend: Raiders at Texans, Pandy's Pick, Texans -3.5. The Raiders beat the Texans at Oakland 27-20 earlier in the year. That was with their star QB, Derek Carr, who is injured. This game is unusual in that both teams still don't know who will be the QB as of this writing. Oakland's second string QB McGloin hurt his shoulder last week, and the Texans lost their starter due to a concussion. But if Savage can't play for Houston, they have Osweiler, who has played most of the snaps this year. The Texans have the number 1 ranked defense. The Raiders have a high powered offense, but the key is, can they generate that same kind of offense without their all star quarterback? I'll go with the Texans and their tough defense to cover. (won)
Dolphins at Steelers, Pandy's Pick, Dolphins +10. The Dolphins beat the Steelers pretty easily earlier in the season but the Steelers defense is playing much better now, and the Dolphins will most likely be playing this game with their second-string QB Matt Moore. But, the Dolphins have won 9 of their last 11, and one of those losses, last week's poor effort against the Patriots, was not a game that they needed to win. The bottom line is, this is a lot of points when you consider the way the Dolphins have played this year. (loss)
3 team 10 point teaser, $50.00, Texans +6.5...Dolphins +20...Giants +14.5
Week 17: 3 team 10 point teaser for $100.00, Patriots + 1/2...Seawhawks + 1/2....Chiefs +6. (won)
Week 16: Giants at Eagles, Pandy's Pick: Giants +1.5. The line changed from -2.5 to +1.5. These two teams usually play close games, it's a conference match up. And there is the possibility that the Giants will come out flat after two hard fought wins against the Cowboys and Lions. But, the Giants defense has come to hand. In the off season the Giants front office made several moves to bolster the D. The defensive coach, Spagnuolo, is one of the best and he has this defense in playoff lock down mode now. The Giants offense hasn't been as good as it was last year and seems out of synch at times. But, last week, even though they only scored 17 points, the offense looked smoother and the running game was improved. The Eagles have lost five in a row so these are two teams going in the opposite direction. One of these days the Giants are going to get their offense into a rhythm and blow someone out. (loss)
Week 15: Eagles at Ravens, Pandy's Pick: Ravens -5.5. The Ravens need to win this race. The Eagles have problems on the offensive line and their offense is sputtering, not a good thing against one of the better defenses in the NFL. (won but didn't cover, loss)
Jaguars at Texans, Pandy's Pick: Texans - 3.5. The Jaguars have a good, quick, defense, but no offense, which is why they have lost 8 straight games. The Texans have a solid defense, they can run the ball, and they play well at home. (won but didn't cover, loss)
49ers at Falcons, Pandy's Pick: Falcons -14. The Falcons defense has been playing better and they have a potent offense facing off against a defense that isn't that good and falls apart in the second half. (covered easily, win)
Buccaneers at Cowboys, Pandy's Pick: Buccaneers +7. Tampa Bay's defense has developed into one of the best in the league and they are a hot team. The Cowboys have that great offensive line but their passing game struggled against good defenses the last two games. (covered, win)
3 team 10 point teaser, $100, Buccanneers +17...Saints +13...Texans +6.5 (won)
Week 14:
3 team 10 point teaser for $50, Bengals +5 vs Browns (cover)...Jets +13 vs 49ers (cover)...Redskins +10 vs Eagles (cover) won
3 team 10 point teaser for $50, Texans +16.5 vs Colts (cover)...Broncos +11.5 vs Titans (cover)...Vikings/Jaguars under 49 (cover) (won)
3 team 10 point teaser for $50, Bengals +5 vs Browns (cover)...Bucs + 8.5 vs Saints (cover)...Jets +13 vs 49ers (cover) won
3 team 10 point teaser for $50, Lions + 2.5 vs Bears (cover)...Redskins +10 vs Eagles (cover)...Seahawks/Packers under 56.5 (cover) won
Week 13: Giants + 6.5 at Steelers, Pandy's Pick, Giants + 6.5. The Giants have won 6 in a row. The Steelers have won two in a row but beat two teams that had key injuries at QB. (loss)
3 team 10 point teaser for $100....Lions + 16.5 at Saints...Giants + 16.5 at Steelers...Jets +11.5 vs Colts (loss)
Week 12: 3 team 10 point teaser for $100....Redskins +16.5 at Cowboys....Giants +3 at Browns...Steelers +1 at Colts (won)
Week 11: 3 team 10 point teaser for $100...Cardinals +12 at Vikings...Bills +12 1/2 at Bengals...Miami +9 at Rams (won)
Week 10:
3 team 10 point teaser for $100...Chiefs +13 at Panthers...Cowboys +13 at Steelers....Texans + 12 1/2 at Jaguars (won)
Week 9:
3 team 10 point teaser for $100...last week I played a $200 teaser which worked out well but I'm back to $100 this week. Note: The point spreads are the exact same as I got when I made my bet, so these are accurate lines as of 10:45 eastern time on Sunday....Lions at Vikings, Lions +16...Eagles at Giants, Eagles +13...Panthers at Rams, Panthers +7 (won)
Season record against the spread: 2-6.
Teaser record: 4-3, + $170.00
Week 8:
3 team 10 point teaser for $200.00, Cardinals +13 at Panthers...Raiders +10 at Buccaneers...Eagles +14 at Cowboys (win)
Week 7: Giants at Rams (in London), Pandy's Pick: Giants - 2.5. This pick is mainly based on the Rams injuries. As for the Giants, their offense finally seemed to mesh last week, or at least start to get in sync, and they are capable of a lot more. (won)
10 point three team teaser, Vikings at Eagles, Vikings +7...Raiders at Jaguars, Raiders +11...Buccaneeers at 49ers, Buccaneeers +10 (loss)
Season record against the spread: 2-6.
Teaser record: 2-3 -$30.00
Week 6: Broncos at Chargers, Pandy's Pick: Broncos -3. (loss)
10 point three team teaser, Jaguars +11.5 at Bears...Ravens + 13.5 at Giants...Dallas +14.5 at Packers (won)
Week 5: Cardinals at 49ers, Pandy's Pick: Cardinals - 3.5. The Cardinals only have 1 win but offensively and defensively they have more talent, even without starting quarterback Carson Palmer, who will miss this time due to a concussion. (won)
Giants +7 at Packers, Pandy's Pick: Giants +7. The Packers secondary should have its hands full with the Giants talented receivers. (push)
3 team 10 point teaser, Browns at Patriots, Patriots even...Bills at Rams, Rams +11...Bears at Colts, Bears +14 1/2 (push)
Week 4: Dolphins at Bengals, Pandy's Pick, Dolphins + 7.5. (loss)
10 point 3 team teaser, Jets +13 vs Seahawks...Raiders +13 at Ravens...Giants +14 at Vikings (loss)
Week 3: Texans +1 at Patriots, Pandy's Pick: Texans +1. The Patriots will be using their third string QB. Houston has a solid defense. We know that Belichick is a master coach but this is a tall order for the Pats, even at home. (loss)
Redskins at Giants, Pandy's Pick: Giants -3. The Giants defense has improved, and their offense is one of the best in the NFL. (loss)
10 point three team teaser, Jets + 12.5 at Chiefs (lost)...Denver +13.5 at Bengals...Lions +17 at Packers. (loss)
Season record against the spread: 1-5.
Coming off a rare losing season on straight bets, let's see if we can get something going for the 2016 season. I skipped the first week but there's plenty of action ahead.
Wow, two tough losses to start the season. The Giants completely out played the Saints but didn't cover (turnovers, bad red zone plays, ouch)
Week 2: Ravens at Browns, Pandy's Pick: Ravens -5.5. Cleveland lost their starting QB due to a shoulder injury and McGown takes over again. He has 2 wins and 17 losses as a starter for the Browns. The Ravens defense was stout in their opening defeat of the Bills and Cleveland may have trouble moving the ball. (loss)
Saints at Giants, Pandy's Pick: Giants -4. This line has dropped so apparently there are bettors who believe that the Saints are improved. They certainly have a good offense, but so do the Giants. The Giants improved their defense over the off season, particularly the defensive line. Although this could be a shootout, I think the Giants outstanding wide receivers will prove to be tough to stop. New Orleans is going with second and third stringer cornerbacks in some situations as their starting CB was injured last week. (loss)
$100, 10 point three team teaser: Dallas +13 vs Skins (cover)...Eagles +13.5 vs Bears (cover)...Chiefs +13 vs Texans (cover)
THE NFL 2015 SEASON
Season record against the spread: 13-18, only won on teasers last year
Teaser record: 6-2, + $360.00. Last year my teaser bets were based on $100.00 wagers with a 20% vig and we'll try the same thing this year to keep track of them.
Super Bowl: Opening line was 3.5. Pandy's Pick, Carolina -4 over Broncos. Carolina basically destroyed Seattle and Arizona, and I think that those two teams were healthier and better than the teams that the Broncos had to beat to get here. The Patriots are well coached but really don't have the talent of the other teams, plus they had some injuries, and the Steelers were also banged up. Hard to go past Carolina. (loss)
My picks sucked this past weekend. My gut for weeks was that the Broncos and Panthers were the best teams but I over analyzed the games, which really gets me ticked off.
Playoffs, Sunday, January 24: Patriots at Broncos, Pandy's Pick, Patriots -3. My pick is the Patriots, so this may be one of those games when I am routing against myself, because as a fan, I'd love to see the Broncos upset. The Broncos have the better defense and they have an excellent pass rush. The way to beat Brady has always been, pressure him. However, he'll be throwing those short passes, which allows him to get rid of the ball in under 3 seconds, and that negates the pass rush. Now, of course, if Denver gets a big lead, then the pass rush will be tough. This figures to be a low scoring game with the Broncos throwing short passes and running the ball and the Patriots throwing short passes. One big difference, Brady, although past his prime, is still a top QB. Peyton Manning is not. His arm strength is way down and even his accuracy has been off, especially on the longer passes that were his bread and butter. Denver has good receivers but the Patriots defense can force turnovers. If Manning doesn't turn the ball over and has a good game, the Broncos can win. There's also the possibility that Manning comes out of the game and Brock Osweiler comes in. The Broncos beat the Patriots with Osweiler at QB this year.
Cardinals at Panthers, Pandy's Pick: Cardinals +3. This is a tough one because the Panthers have been dominant this year. But after analyzing the game, the Cardinals have more offensive weapons and a solid defense, and are getting points.
Playoffs Week 2: Chiefs at Patriots, Pandy's Pick: Chiefs +5. This is tricky because the Chiefs best weapon Jeremy Maclin has an injury, and even if he plays he probably won't have a major impact. That hurts them because he draws double coverage. However, the Chiefs defense has been dynamite. This figures to be a low scoring game decided by which team plays better defense. (loss)
Packers at Cardinals, Pandy's Pick: Cardinals -7. The Packers offense woke up last week but here they face a team that is better offensively and defensively. Although Rogers may be the best quarterback in the NFL, Carson Palmer is a great passer who can pick teams apart. (amazing game, but a loss as Cardinals won by 6)
Steelers at Broncos, Pandy's Pick: Broncos -7. The Broncos defense is the key to their game. Big Ben is hurt but the Steelers QB has played some outstanding games while injured. Still, the Broncos are the better team. (push)
Playoffs Week 1: Steelers at Bengals, Pandy's Pick: Bengals +2.5 (covered, barely....)
Vikings at Seahawks, Pandy's Pick: Seahawks -4. (The Seahawks won the game but did not cover, loss)
Packers at Redskins, Pandy's Pick: Redskins -1. (wow, Packers woke up, loss)
Week 17: No regular picks this week, but I'm going to play a teaser.
$100.00 3 team 10 point teaser, Broncos even against Chargers....Vikings +13 against Packers....Lions +11 against Bears (all three teams won, easy cover)
Week 16: No picks this week.
Week 15: Broncos at Steelers, Pandy's Pick: Broncos +7. The Steelers are hot now but let's not forget that the Broncos defense has allowed the fewest yards per game in the NFL this year. (push)
Week 14: No regular picks this week, just a teaser. The 49ers have played better with their new QB and faces a weak team....The Redskins/Bears figures to be a close game as does the Pittsburge/Cincinnati game.... 3 team, 10 point teaser, 49ers at Browns, 49ers +11.5...Redskins at Bears, Redskins +13.5....Steelers at Bengals, Steelers +12.5 (loss)
Week 13: Panthers at Saints, Pandy's Pick: Panthers -6.5. I'll admit it, I just don't like the Saints. They have a terrible defense, and their once potent offense has scored a combined total of 20 points in their last two games. Even though Carolina has their division wrapped up, they are well coached and they should play hard as they try to keep their undefeated season going.
Broncos at Chargers, Pandy's Pick: Broncos -4.5. Denver's defense is not playing as well as they did earlier in the year but they are solid. Denver ran the ball much better when they upset the Patriots last week. San Diego has been prone to mistakes and their defense allows a lot of points.
Week 12: Saints at Texans, Pandy's Pick: Texans -3. The Saints have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Texans defense has been sharp the last four weeks. The Saints once high-powered offense has been sputtering recently. This match up favors the hot team, The Houston Texans. (won, easy cover)
$100.00 10 point three team teaser, Steelers at Seahawks, Steelers + 13 1/2....Buccaneers at Colts, Buccaneers +13...Giants at Redskins, Giants +8 (push, no win or loss)
Week 11: Chiefs at Chargers, Pandy's Pick: Chiefs -3. I posted this one early. The Chiefs have righted their ship and are back to playing the way they played last year, solid defense, strong running game, ball control. The Chiefs offense is finally clicking. The Chargers have lost five in a row, their defense can be sloppy at times and they have no running game. (Chiefs dominated, won)
Week 10:
Patriots at Giants, Pandy's Pick: Patriots - 7.5. The Giants have beaten the Patriots three straight times, two of which were in the Super Bowl. But this Giants team does not have the great pass rush that those teams had. New York's defense has been suspect. Offensively, the Patriots are tough to stop. On defense, the Patriots have a solid defense. So we have two good offenses, one good defense. I'll lay the points with the Patriots. (Patriots won by did not cover, loss)
Teaser record: 5-1, + $380.00. Last year my teaser bets were based on $100.00 wagers with a 20% vig and we'll try the same thing this year to keep track of them.
Week 9:
Eagles at Cowboys, Pandy's Pick: Eagles - 3. Without Tony Romo the Cowboys simply haven't been very good. Matt Cassel is past his prime and now he'll be wearing a knee brace for this game. I expect the Eagles to apply good pass pressure. The Eagles have a good defense and Dallas is struggling offensively now. (Eagles won and covered, won)
Falcons at 49ers, Pandy's Pick: Falcons -7. Atlanta started out red hot but they're offense has been prone to mistakes and penalties recently and they've lost two of their last three games. But, San Francisco has all sorts of problems. They traded their best receiver, tight end Vernon Davis. They benched their starting QB and they are going to Blaine Gabbert, who hasn't started a game since 2013. On top of that, the 49ers have key injuries. (Falcons lost)
3 team 10 point teaser for $100, Dolphins +13 vs Bills...Bears +14 vs Chargers....Raiders +14.5 vs Steelers
Week 8: Vikings at Bears, Pandy's Pick: Vikings even. Minnesota has their running game going again and the Bears have struggled against the run. (Vikings won 23-20, win)
Buccaneers at Falcons, Pandy's Pick: Buccaneers + 7 1/2. The Falcons can certainly score with the best of them but their defense is shaky and Tampa has been competitive. (Tampa won 23-20 win)
Giants at Saints, Pandy's Pick: Giants +3. The Saints defense can give up a lot of points and the Giants certainly have the weapons. (Giants lost by 3 points, push)
Packers at Broncos, Pandy's Pick: Packers - 2 1/2. Green Bay has a better offense and both teams have been playing good defense. But Rogers is at the top of his game and Peyton Manning isn't. (loss)
3 team 10 point teaser for $100, Vikings +10....Tampa Bay + 17 1/2....Giants +13
Week 7: Ravens at Cardinal's, Pandy's Pick: Cardinal's -8.5. This line had gone up but I did get 8.5 this morning....Arizona is better offensively and defensively. Baltimore's once great defense has serious problems in the secondary and the offense lacks skill players. Arizona won by 8, loss.
Jets at New England, Pandy's Pick: Jets +8.5. Unfortunately this line also changed, moving from 9.5 to 8.5, which I got when I bet it Sunday morning, but the Jets are one of the best teams in the league and they may have the answer for those quick short passes that New England is going to throw. I'd imagine that the Patriots will try to take away the Jets running game and crowd the line of scrimmage but the Jets have very good receivers this year. (Jets covered, win)
Falcons at Titans, Pandy's Pick: Falcons -5.5. The Falcons one weakness is their secondary but Tennessee doesn't have the weapons to exploit it and their talented rookie quarterback is not playing this week. I'll lay the points with Atlanta, I got 5.5 on Sunday morning. (Falcons won but did not cover, loss)
Teaser, three team 10 point teaser for $100.00, Jets +18....Pittsburgh +13....Cowboys +13 (covered)
Week 6: Broncos at Browns, Pandy's Pick: Broncos - 3.5. Denver's defense is ranked 1st in the NFL and they have good pass coverage. Cleveland's defense has been disappointing. (ouch, Denver won by 3, loss)
Bengals at Bills, Pandy's Pick: Bengals -3. The Bengals could bounce after a big come from behind win against the Seahawks but they have been ultra consistent so far this year. The Bills starting QB is out for this game. As a Jets fan, I like Rex Ryan, but he's a defensive coach and he meddles too much with the offense. So far the Bills are having the same problems the Jets had when Ryan coached them, they struggle to get first downs and points. Last week the Bills offense couldn't stay on the field and their defense got tired. Now they play a hot team that is good on both offense and defense. I can't see Buffalo getting enough points to win this. (easy cover)
Week 5: 49ers at Giants, Pandy's Pick: Giants -7. The Giants defense is playing very well now that they have their Super Bowl Defensive coordinator back and the offense has plenty of weapons and a quarterback who can make big plays. The offensive line is also playing well. The 49ers appear in shambles. (loss, Giants won but only by 3 points)
Teaser, $100.00, 3 game 10 point teaser, Bengals +7, Browns + 17, Giants +3 (won, all three times won outright)
Week 4: Cowboys at Saints, Pandy's Pick, Cowboy's +3.5. The Cowboys still have the weapons and offensive line to score, even without Tony Romo. The Saints are struggling. (loss, Cowboys tied the game but lost by 6 in overtime)
Week 3: Buccaneers at Texans, Pandy's Pick: Texans -6.5. The line on this game keeps getting higher, and that's why it's often smart to bet earlier in the week. The Texans should keep the rookie quarterback on his heels in this game. After getting blown out by Tennessee opening week, Tampa Bay beat the Saints in New Orleans last week, but I don't think the Saints are a good team. The Texans played two good teams (Carolina and Kansa City) and although they lost, they were competitive. (Texans won 19-9, covered, win)
Teaser, $100.00, 3 game 10 point teaser, Cincinnati Bengals +12.5, Carolina Panthers + 0.5, Atlanta Falcons +9 (these are the lines I actually got when I made the bet Sunday morning) (all three teams won, teaser covered, win)
Week 2: Rams -3 at Redskins, Pandy's Pick: Rams -3. The Redskins defense played pretty well last week but they lost their best wide receiver and they already had problems scoring. Here they face a very quick defensive line that excels against the run and the pass. On offense, the Rams offense seems improved over lst year. New QB Nick Foles played well for the Rams and his receivers made some clutch catches in traffic. I just think the Rams are a better team. (loss, the Rams still can't seem to play two good games in a row)
Cowboys at Eagles, Pandy's Pick: Eagles -5. This is a good match up for the Eagles because the Cowboys have some key injuries. Dez Bryant, the Cowboys greaet receiver, is out. Two of the Cowboys defensive linemen will also miss this game, one with an injury and the other is on suspension. Last week it was obvious that the Cowboys also miss Demarco Murray, who is now running the ball for the Eagles. The Eagles defense is improving and they can score a lot of points once they get into a rhythm. (loss)
Teaser, 3 game 10 point teaser, Chargers + 13 1/2, Lions + 12 1/2, Texans +13 (won)
Week 1: Jets -3.5 vs Browns, Pandy's pick: Jets -3.5. The Jets made a lot of smart changes during the offseason that should help strengthen their defense, which has been good for years. Offensively, they also added a top wide receiver, and added speed running backs that can catch the ball out of the backfield, something that's been missing for years. The Browns have a solid defense but they have to prove that they can score points, and that may not be easy against a Jets defense that has the potential to be one of the top five in the NFL. (easy cover)
Packers - 6.5 at Bears, Pandy's pick: Packers -6.5. Green Bay is solid all the way around, although they do have to play this game without their top wide receiver. But Chicago lost their all star pass receiver, who is now with the Jets. The Bears defense has a lot to prove and could not stop Green Bay last year. (cover)
Dolphins -4 at Redskins, Pandy's pick: Dolphins -4. Miami figures to keep improving on offense this year and defensively they are solid and they added one of the top defensive linemen in the NFL on the off season. The Redskins don't scare anyone and have a lot to prove. (cover)
THE NFL 2014 SEASON
Season record against the spread: 18-13
Teaser record: 3-2 (based on $100 teasers with 20% vig,
+$60.00)
Super Bowl Record since posting 14 years ago, (10-4)
The Super Bowl: Pandy's Pick, Patriots +1 over Seahawks. I've given out my Super Bowl pick for the past 13 years and I've hit 9 against the spread (9 wins against 4 losses), but I lost the past two years. The last three times the Patriots were in the Super Bowl I picked against them and I won all three bets (twice they lost to the Giants and they beat the Eagles but didn't cover). So my overall record betting against the Patriots both in the regular season and post season is very good. But, this time I'm going with them. (won)
This is an interesting match up for several reasons. First of all, it's unusual that the two teams that made it to the Super Bowl both have sub par wide receivers. Almost every team in the NFL has better wide outs than these two teams. I find that odd. Another interesting point, both of these teams have excellent cornerbacks, the best in the NFL. For the Seahawks, this puts a lot of pressure on their offensive line and their bull of a running back, Marshawn Lynch.
But we know that coach Bill Belichick likes to take away a team's best weapon. Seattle's best weapon is its running game. Both Lynch and QB Russell Wilson are among the league leaders in rushing yards. There are two things that Belichick will have his defense focus on this Sunday. One is, stop Marshawn Lynch. That means that the Patriots will crowd the line of scrimmage. The other focus will be to keep Wilson in the pocket. Green Bay did a good job of this, and the Patriots will try to do the same thing, although the Patriots don't have as good of a defensive line as Green Bay.
Because New England will crowd the box, they'll essentially try to force the Seahawks and Russell Wilson to beat them through the air. That is the ideal game plan because the Seahawks struggled with their passing game this year. Last year, when they beat the Broncos in the Super Bowl, they had two fast wide receivers but those guys are not on the team anymore.
So the key to beating the Seahawks is simple: stop them from scoring. When you play the Seahawks, you have to figure that you're not going to get a lot of points. So you have to try to win a low scoring game. The Patriots have a good secondary this year and QB Wilson may have trouble finding open receivers. This year, he often struggled to find open receivers, which is one of the reasons why he runs so much.
Of course, even if the Patriots do a good job of stopping the Seahawks offense, they still have to score, and they have to avoid interceptions against this lightning quick defense.
My feeling is that the Patriots are such a well coached team that they'll have a good game plan. To beat the Seahawks, it helps if you go no huddle and the Patriots run the hurry up offense as well as anyone. That stops the Seahawks from substituting, and gives teams a better chance of keeping the Seahawks off balance. But I don't think that scoring will be easy for the Patriots. They're used to moving the ball with short passes, and the Seahawks excel at stopping short passes. And, as I said, Brady doesn't have good wide receivers, so he has to throw to his tight ends, running backs, and slot receivers.
But, the Patriots offense is much more sophisticated than the Seahawks, and has better balance. I think that Seattle will struggle to score and the Patriots will get enough points to win a close, low scoring game.
Season record against the spread: 17-13
Teaser record: 3-2 (based on $100 teasers with 20% vig, +$60.00)
Playoffs Championship Sunday: Colts at Patriots, Pandy's Pick, Patriots - 6.5. As much as I'd like to see the Colts upset, my pick is the Patriots. The key to the game is the Colts defense. They have played better lately but when they beat the Broncos last week, Denver's offense just had a terrible game. They dropped 6 passes and Manning was playing hurt. New England will have a strong offensive game plan here and will probably mix it up and keep the Colts defense off blance. The Colts are one dimensional on offense, they have no running game. (won, wow, I got that right)
Playoffs week 2: Panthers at Seahawks, Pandy's Pick: Seahawks -11. This is a lot of points to give for a team that does not score a lot of points, and goes against a tough defense, but one of the Panthers best defensive linemen was injured in practice and is out for the game. The Panthers generally need to play excellent defense and run the ball to win. But Seattle's run defense is actually better this year, ranked 3rd in the league. I just think the Seahawks at home are just too much for the Panthers. (won, Seahawks covered easily)
Colts at Broncos, Pandy's Pick: Broncos -7. This could be a good game if the Colts play big and don't make mistakes, but I'm taking the Broncos to cover for these reasons: 1). The Broncos have a better overall defense. 2). The Broncos have a much better running game, and consequently, a more balanced offense. The Colts are strictly a passing team. The Broncos also do an excellent job of pass protecting for Peyton Manning. (loss)...wow, I still can't believe how poorly Denver's offense performed in this game. This is an offense that was statistically the number 1 ranked offense in history last year! And The Colt defense gave up these point totals in games this year: 51, 42, 42, 31, 30, 28, 27. So, a team that gave up more than 40 points three times held the Broncos to 13 points. Weird.
Playoffs week 1: Cardinals at Panthers, Pandy's Pick: Panthers -6.5. Neither one of these teams have explosive offenses, but this looks like a good match up for the Panthers. Yes, they have a losing record, but they won their last four games. Last year, Carolina's defense was the second best in the NFL behind Seattle. This year they struggled but in two of their last four wins they held the Saints to 10 points and the Falcons to 3 points, both high-octane offenses. Today they face an inexperienced third string QB and an offense that's struggling. For the Cardinals to win, they need a huge game by their quality defense. But, I think that the Panthers defense is in a better position to dominate the game. (won)
Week 17: Like last week, this week is tricky because not all of the teams have something to play for. I'll try one game. Saints at Bucs, Pandy's Pick: Saints -4.5 The Saints are out of the playoffs but they are a well coached team and I think they'll be ready to play. The Saints have one of the top offenses in the NFL but a weak defense. However, they match up well against a Tampa Bay team that has a very weak offense. The Saints have played better on the road this year than in their domed stadium. If Tampa Bay loses this game, they are assured the No. 1 draft pick. (Saints won but didn't cover, loss)
Week 16: Lions at Bears, Pandy's Pick: Lions - 8.5. The line would be higher, but the Lions have already clinched a playoff berth. However, they still have a chance for a first round bye. The Bears allowed 7 QB sacks against the Saints last week, and now they go to a back up quarterback who hasn't started a game since 2010 and is 1-9 as a starter. (Lions won but didn't cover, loss)
Patriots at Jets, Pandy's Pick: Patriots -10. Normally you'd expect a battle in this division match up but the Patriots aren't the type of team to let up, and they've been improving both offensively and defensively as the season progresses. Jets offense has been dysfunctional all year. (Patriots won but didn't cover, loss)
Teaser: 3 team 10 point teaser, Lions + 1.5, Patriots even, Packers -2.5 over Bucs. (won)
Week 15: Raiders at Chiefs, Pandy's Pick: Raiders +11. The Raiders are finally playing well, and their pass defense is playing particularly well. They still have to prove that they can play well on the road, but here they meet a slumping Kansas City team that is struggling with its passing game. Kansas City needs the game to stay alive in the playoff picture, but I can see this being close. (loss)
Jets at Titans, Pandy's Pick, Jets -3. Two 2 and 11 teams meet up in a match up of bottom dwellers. But, don't blame the Jets problems on their defense, which is ranked 7th in the NFL. The Jets should be able to move the ball, control the clock, and the game. (won)
Teaser: 3 team 10 point teaser, Raiders at Chiefs, Raiders + 21...49ers at Seahawks, Seahawks even.....Steelers at Falcons, Falcons +13. (won)
Week 14: Seahawks at Eagles, Pandy's Pick: Seahawks +1. Both teams are playing very well but the Eagles quarterback Mark Sanchez could be a liability against this outstanding defense. (won)
Teaser: I like a three team 10 point teaser this week. Ravens at Dolphins, Ravens +13, Chiefs at Cardinals, Cardinals +12...If the line drops to 0 I'll still take Cardinals +10, Seahawks at Eagles, Seahawks +11. (won)
Week 13: Bengals at Bucks, Pandy's Pick: Bengals -4. The Bengals come off two big road wins. This is another big game for them because the are in first place by a thin margin. The Bucs defense is playing better but their problem is scoring. They've lost 5 home games in a row and failed to cover the spread in all of them. (Bengals really messed this up, won by didn't cover, loss)
Raiders at Rams, Pandy's Pick: Rams -6.5. The Rams have trouble winning two in a row, but they lost last week, so maybe that's a good thing. The Raiders pulled off an upset last week but they do not have a good offense and the Rams are a solid defensive team. The Rams also have good receivers and QB Shaun Hill is playing better but must avoid costly mistakes. (The Rams crushed them, won)
Week 12:
Cardinals at Seahawks, Pandy's Pick: Cardinal's + 7.5. The Seahawks are tough at home but their offense is struggling, especially the passing game, and now they face a top defense that excels against the run. Cardinals are a tough team and this should be a close, low-scoring game. (loss)
Rams at Chargers, Pandy's Pick: Rams + 5.5. The Rams have played some giant games this year but they can't seem to put two big games together. The Chargers are struggling after a hot start. QB Rivers is playing hurt, the offense is in a slump, and today they face a tough and physical defense. San Diego's defense is underrated so we have a potentially low scoring defensive battle here. (won)
Week 11:
Falcons at Panthers, Pandy's Pick: Falcons -2. Panthers QB Cam Newton was sacked 9 times against the Eagles last week and is hurting. The Panthers offense is in a scoring slump and their once top defense is not having a good year, either. Today they lose one of their better defensive players, rookie tackle Lotulelei, and they are also reshuffling their weak offensive line. The Falcons defense is not very good, but they played a strong game against the Lions two back and won on the road at Tampa Bay last week, so they are playing better. Offensively, the Falcons are strong. (Falcons won by 2, push)
Buccaneeers at Redskins, Pandy's Pick: Redskins - 7.5. These teams usually play each other close, but right now the Redskins are a much better team than Tampa Bay. The Redskins losses have been close and they beat Dallas two back. They are well ranked both offensively and defensively, while Tampa struggles to score points, which is one of the reasons why the only have one win in their last 12 games. (Tampa Bay came up big and upset, loss)
Eagles at Packers, Pandy's Pick: Packers - 5.5. Two high scoring teams meet here but the difference may be at QB. Although Mark Sanchez has played well in his two games with the Eagles, Sanchez is not that good under pressure and the Packers have a good pass rush. Green Bay QB Aaron Rogers has 25 TD passes this year and only 3 interceptions. (Packers blew Eagle out, won)
Steelers at Titans, Pandy's Pick: Steelers -6. The Steelers high flying offense sputtered against the Jets last week but they should be ready for this Monday night game against a team that has a struggling offense lead by a rookie QB who will be minus one of his targets, tight end Delanie Walker, who is out with a concussion. (Steelers only won by 3, loss)
Week 10:
Broncos at Raiders, Pandy's Pick: Bronco's - 12. Oakland has played some teams tough but the Broncos come off a loss to the Patriots and should be focused here. The Raiders have not done a good job of rushing the passer, and their offense continues to struggle. (won)
Rams at Cardinals, Pandy's Pick: Cardinals -7. The Rams struggle on offense and have to face a tough defense at home this week, and it's the third straight road game for the Rams. (won)
Week 9:
Eagles at Texans, Pandy's Pick: Texans +2. This is a big home game and a must win game for Houston. The Eagles offensive line is banged up and the Texans should be able to pressure Foles. Houston has enough offensive firepower to score and their defense is playing better. (loss)
Week 8: no picks
Week 7:
SAINTS at LIONS, Pandy's Pick: Lions - 1.5. The line has dropped steadily this week, probably because of the Sants dominance against the Lions in the past. But this year the Lions are leading the NFL in total defense and have been strong against the run and pass, plus they have 20 sacks. The Lions, who were a high scoring team last year, have not played that well offensively this year, but the Saints defense has given up a lot of points. Both teams will be without one of the top recievers, so defense could be the key to the game. (Lions won by 1 point...some books had the game at 1 point, but...) loss
Teaser, three team 10 points: Texans + 13, Giants + 15, Bears +7. I was orginally going to take the Giants + 7 as a regular pick but the line keeps coming down and 5 points is a bit light, so I'll try them in a teaser. Dallas could bounce off a big win against the champion Seahawks, and the Giants, who were blown out last week, should be trying much harder this week. (loss)
Week 6: I had a tough time finding a game a like this week, so I'm going to try a three team 10 point teaser: Detroit + 12.5, Redskins + 16, Giants +12.5. At some books the Giants are getting 3.5 points, but I'll stick to the Covers.com line as I always do for these picks.
Week 5:
FALCONS at GIANTS, Pandy's Pick: Giants - 3.5. The Falcons lost two offensive linemen to season ending injuries last week, and it's tough to patch together a cohesive offensive line in one week. The Giants defensive line is solid and they should pressure a quarterback, Matt Ryan, who has been prone to mistakes the past two years. The Giants secondary has been improving at creating turnovers. On offense, the Giants are figuring out the new west coast offense. (Giants won by 10 points, won)
Week 4:
SAINTS at COWBOYS, Pandy's Pick: Cowboys +3. The Saints crushed the Cowboys last year but the Saints have lost 5 in a row on the road and they are struggling on defense, while inconsistent so far on offense. The Cowboys can run the ball and may control the clock in this game. I'll take the points. (Dallas won 38-17, won)
GIANTS at REDSKINS, Pandy's Pick: Giants + 3.5. The Giants new west coast style offense finally started to come together last week and it was against a top ranked defense. The Giants defense also played better. This is a division game and these teams play each other tough. The Redskins lost two defensive starters to injuries last week, a cornerback and a safety, and have had a short week to prep the second string d-backs. (Giants won 45-14, won)
Week 3:
PACKERS at LIONS, Pandy's Pick: Lions -2. Two problems for Green Bay so far this season, their offensive line is not protecting Rogers, and their defensive secondary is not playing well. The Lions play well at home, has a potent passing attack, and their big pass rush will pressure Rogers. (won, Lions won 19-7)
RAVENS at BROWNS, Pandy's Pick: Ravens -1. The Browns have played well so far but not against this type of defense. They can struggle offensively and I expect that to be the case today as they play a sharp Ravens squad and a tough defense that can take control of the game. (won, Ravens won 23-21)
COLTS at JAGUARS, Pandy's Pick: Colts - 7.5. The Colts have played well, losing to the Broncos, and then they made key mistakes, and had bad pentalties called against them last week that cost them the game. The Jaguars played well in the first two quarters of their season but have been pitiful in the last 6 quarters, they have a starting receiver out and an offense that can struggle. (won, Colts won 44-10)
Week 2:
FALCONS at BENGALS, Pandy's Pick: Bengals - 5.5. The Falcons have some key injures and although their offense did good against the Saints last week, this is a much tougher task against the Bengals big pass rush. (won, Bengals won 24-10)
RAMS at BUCCANEERS, Pandy's Pick: Buccaneers - 5.5. Tampa lost to a talented Carolina team last week but I think that the Rams, who were already limited on offense, are going to struggle without their starting QB Sam Bradford, who is injured. (lost, Rams won 10-17)
BEARS at 49ers, Pandy's Pick: 49ers - 7.5. The Niners open up in their new stadium tonight and they're going to be tough to beat here. The Bears gave up 193 rushing yards to the Bill last week, an ominous sign as they meet one of the NFL's best offensive lines. (lost, Bears won 28-20)
THE NFL 2013 Season
After losing the Super Bowl my season record ended 15-19. I started doing this NFL picks three years ago and this was my first losing season.
THE NFL 2012 Season
Note: In 2011 I picked a few games a week (Best Bets) and every post season game and hit a remarkable 61% against the spread. Last year (2012) my Best Bets went 16-14 and I was 6-3 in the Post Season. All lines are from www.covers.com.
Super Bowl: 0-1.Best Bets 0-1. Post Season 6-3. Season 16-14.
Week 20, Playoffs, Recap: Best Bets 1-1. Playoffs 6-2.
Season 16-13
Week 19, Playoffs, Recap: Best Bets 2-1. Playoffs 5-1.
Season 15-12.
Week 18, Playoffs, Recap: Best Bets 3-0. Season
13-11.
Week 17 Recap: Best Bets 0-1. Season 10-11. Teaser 0-1. Season 6-5.
Week 16 Recap: Best Bets: 0-2. Season 10-10. Teaser 0-1.
Season 6-4.
Week 15 Recap: Best Bets 0-1. Season 10-8. Teaser 0-1.
Season 6-3.
Week 14 Recap: Best Bets 1-0. Season 10-7. Teaser 1-0.
Season 6-2.
Week 13: No picks
Week 12 Recap: Best Bets 1-0. Season 9-7. Teaser 1-0.
Season 5-2.
Week 11 Recap: Best Bets 1-0. Season 8-7.
Week 10 Recap: Best Bets 0-1, season 7-7 -$70), all
picks 2-2 (season 35-42 (-$820.00), Teaser 0-1, season 4-2 ($160.00)
Week 9 Recap:
Best Bets 1-0 (season 7-6, +$40.00), all
picks 2-2 (season 33-40 -$800.00), Teaser none, season 4-1 (+$280.00)
Week 8 Recap: Best Bets 1-0 (season 6-6, -$60.00), all
picks 1-1 (season 31-38 -$780.00), Teaser 0-1, season 4-1 (+$280.00)
Week 7 Recap: Best Bets 0-1 (season 5-6 (-$100.00), all
picks 2-2 (season 30-37 -$700), Teaser 1-0, season 4-0 (+$400.00)
Week 6 Recap: Best Bets 0-1 (season 5-5, 50%), all picks
28-35 on season. Teaser season 3-0.
Week 5 Recap: Best Bets 0-2 (season 5-4, 56%), all picks
4-10, season 28-34, Teaser season 2-0. Rough week. I didn't pick a Teaser
because it looked so tough and I only had 4 winners against the spread and lost
both Best Bets.
Week 4 Recap: Best Bets: 1-0 (season 5-2, 71%), all picks 2-2
(Season 24-24), Teaser 1-0, (Season 2-0). $100 bets on each, Best Bets
+$480.00, All picks -$240.00, Teasers +$200.00.
Week 3 Recap: Best Bets 1-0 (season 4-2, 67%). All
games 10-6 (63%), Teaser 1-0. Season 22-22 (50%). Very good week, 10 wins and 6 losses and I went one for one on Best Bets with an
easy win by the Giants.
Week 2 Recap: Best Bets: 2-0 (season 3-2). All games 6-6
(three pushes don't count towards percentage), season 12-16. I hit both Best Bets this week.
Week 1 Recap: Best Bets 1-2. All games 6-10. Rough start to the
season after week one but last year when I just did Best Bets I started out ice
cold then got hot.
Pandy's NFL 2011 Wrap Up
The Giants win over the Patriots pushed my record for the year to 33 wins against 21 losses against the spread for a 61% hit rate, which is an extremely high win percentage for sports betting.
Millionaire professional sports bettor Billy Walters claims to have a win percentage of 58%. I have picked the Super Bowl on my website for the past 11 years and I've hit 9 Super Bowls against the spread (82%). The Super Bowl is a bit easier to pick than the regular season because during the season teams go through ups and downs and slumps so the best team doesn't always win.
You have to give the Patriots credit, they are an extremely well coached and well run organization. They are the greatest team of their era and they consistently beat teams that have more talent on the field. In my opinion, the Giants have much more talent than the Patriots, yet the Patriots had the lead with less than 4 minutes to play. The Patriots don't have a top running back or a top wide receiver and their defense is young and inexperienced, yet they only lost 4 games all year.
I'm disappointed that Aaron Rogers won the MVP award. Rogers is a great player I felt that Eli Manning deserved the MVP award this year.
PANDY'S SUPER BOWL ANALYSIS
Giants + 3.5 over Patriots (at Indianapolis)
I'm picking the Giants here and I bet early before the line dropped because I think the line will move lower and it would not surprise me to see the Patriots 2 to 2.5 pt favorites on game day. I think you could make a good case that the wrong team is favored, but the odds makers make the line based on how the money will be bet, not on which team is the strongest. A key factor, the Patriots only played two teams with winning records during the season and lost both of those games, including the loss to the Giants in November.
A few points I'd like to address. First of all, I've read some remarks on boards and from the media about reasons why the Patriots will win that go something like this..."The Giants already beat the Patriots this year and it's hard to beat a great team two times in one season" "Bill Belichick has never lost to a team twice in one season" "Tom Brady wants revenge for when the Giants ruined the Patriots unbeaten season in the 2008 Super Bowl"
Let me say that these "reasons" for liking the Patriots are the reason why most bettors lose money; they are inconsequential and meaningless. Tom Brady is not going to try harder in this game because of any stupid revenge factor. It's the Super Bowl. Both teams are going to be playing their hearts out. Bill Belichick is a great coach but even if its true that one of his teams never lost to the same team twice in one year, that's also meaningless because there's a first time for everything. All this stuff about revenge, it's nonsense.
There are two types of Super Bowls. A). One team is clearly superior and they win by out playing the other team, because they're better. B). The two teams are very closely matched and one team gets more lucky breaks (turnovers) than the other team and they win. If you look at the championship games from Sunday, both games were as close as you can get. The winning teams had better luck, the Ravens missed a field goal and had the winning touch down knocked out of the receivers hand, and the 49ers punt returner handed the Giants the win with two turnovers. Both games were B games, luck decided the outcome.
So, in the Super Bowl, if it's a close game all the way, either the Giants or the Patriots will make one or two key mistakes that cost them game. Or, one team will play much better and win the game because they are the better team. I would say that around 70 to 75% of the Super Bowls are "A" games where one team is clearly better than the other team.
Here's my analysis: First of all, the Giants beat the Patriots 24-20 when they met in November. In that game, which was played in New England, the stats on 1st downs, passing yards, running yards were almost identical. The Giants had 23 first downs, the Patriots had 23 first downs. The Giants ran for 111 yards, the Patriots ran for 106 yards. The Patriots had 82 yards more passing. Eli Manning was not sacked, Brady was sacked twice.
So the first meeting between these two teams was close.
A few key changes this time around. 1). The Patriots defense, which is ranked as one of the worst in football, is playing much better now. 2). The Giants defense, which is not well ranked either, is playing much better now. 3). The Giants played without their top rusher, Ahmad Bradshaw in the first matchup. 4). The Giants also played without wide receiver Hakeem Nicks in the first matchup. Nicks finished the season 12th in the league in receiving despite missing several games.
The Patriots finished 2nd (behind New Orleans) in total offense. The Giants were 8th in total offense. But to my eyes, the Giants have more speed on offense. The Patriots pile up a lot of yard with short passes. The Giants can strike long with fast wide receivers.
Neither team put up great defensive stats on the season. The Patriots was ranked 31st, the Giants defense was ranked 27th. But both teams have improved on defense. The Giants defense is really the key to this game. Both teams have potent scoring potential. But the Giants defense has been playing brilliantly in the playoffs. They held the powerful Green Bay offense to 20 points. They tossed a shutout against the Falcons in the 24-2 win, a tremendous defensive achievement. If you look the Giants last 5 games, all wins, the defense has given up an average of 13 points a game. The defensive front is as good as any in football, especially for rushing the quarterback. The secondary, which was terrible at times earlier in the year, has been playing extremely well.
Of course another key to beating the Patriots is keeping the ball out of Tom Brady's hands. The Giants running game did not do well this year but has picked up steam in the playoffs, averaging 117 yards a game. I actually expect both teams to run the ball quite a bit. Truth is, both of these teams can control the clock, so that may be a toss up. But I think the Giants edge in Team speed, especially on offense, and their overall edge on defense, both in experience and talent, should make them tough to beat.
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