PACE HANDICAPPING LONGSHOTS Book
My thoroughbred handicapping book, Pace Handicapping Longshots, is out in paperback. If you check out my Boxcar Longshots page, and if you've followed my website over the past few years, you know that I ran tests of a few methods and called the picks either Bombs Away Longshots or Boxcar Longshots marked as Method A, B, or C. Now these methods are available. The methodology in this book is unique and something that I developed mainly by using Brisnet past performances. Daily Racing Form's Formulator or Moss Pace Figures are also perfect for this. If you use other past performances you'll still find that the information will improve your ability to pick winners and longshot winners. This is ideal for exotic players who need that longshot in the exacta, trifecta, or have to include live longshots in Pick 3's and Pick 4's. This will dramatically improve your bottom line. The book is well illustrated with many samples of past performances showing step by step how I used the pp lines to pick these longshot winners. This is a breakthrough in pace handicapping. As a free bonus, I'm also including a booklet I wrote called "Exotic Longshots" that has two more longshot angles.
At Belmont in the 9th race on Sunday, September 24, 2017, Bourbonfuhrme shipped in from Gulfstream and won and paid $148.50. This horse was the Pace Shape Method pick in that race. This is the biggest price I've seen so far, although I don't monitor all the tracks every day. For people who follow my methods, Bourbonfuhrme also had the top ranked ESR (early speed rating) on my Power Pace Handicapping method.
Pace Shape Method Longshot Winners: Bourbonfuhrme $148.50, Belmont 9th race on Sept. 24, 2017...Oxbow $32.80 (Preakness Stakes)...Palice Malice $29.60 (Belmont Stakes)
Note: I got this email from a customer on November 22, 2013 -
Bob, it has been a while now since I purchased your "Pace Handicapping Longshots" book. I have run more than 800 races at this point and this is without a doubt the best work I've seen in my 25 years of handicapping. My best hit was this month a $1,000+ tri. My best win payoff has been $61.40. I almost feel that I should have paid you more for the book (notice I said almost):).
Thanks for a great piece of work. I am looking forward to your upcoming works.
Note: I got this email from a customer on July 11, 2013.
Thanks for the info in the book I just purchased, #7 in race 9 was a classic longshot pick based on your Pace Shape Method in the book, went off at 7-1, went to the front and never looked back.
Have a great Thursday!!!!
Note: I got this email from a customer on Wednesday, May 22:
Just wanted to thank you for the Pace Handicapping Longshot book. I was at Churchill Downs last week and had 2 good days using the Pace Shape method and also caught a Pro Simulcast play on a drop to N2L. I just wanted to ask if there was a particular track or circuit that offered the N2L condition more than others. It's a good angle.
Note: I got this email from a customer on Sunday, May 19:
Your top choice in yesterday's Preakness was a great selection. Oxbow S($32.80) ran the race exactly the way your system predicted and Orb had his problems, exactly as your study predicted.
Again, thanks for the winner.
Note: I got this email from a customer on Monday, January 21, 2013:
Pandy, I wanted to drop you line and say I have been using the Pace Handicapping Longshots book for since January. I have hit winners here and there nothing huge, mostly in the $11.00 to $ 20.00 range with a lot of place horses. Well this last weekend on Saturday 1/19, I hit three; GP 3rd - Elmutahid $25.40, AQ - 6th - Maggiesfreuddnslip $66.00 and FG 10th - 4 Oxbow $11.20. While the first two were maidens the last one ran in a Grade 1 previously with huge numbers using your method, this race was a stakes for 3 yr olds. He wired the field by 11 lengths.
Just want to say thanks for publishing this book. It has given me a new perspective in handicapping. I used to rely on trainer angles and jockey/trainer combinations. Never gave a real thought about speed, but as I read the book it made me realize that being fast does matter. Along with your longshot indicators I can't wait till the end of the work week to begin handicapping the next card.
By the way, those three winners netted me $1346.00.
I got this email from a customer on Monday, April 15, 2013. He gets my Sharphorses Selection Service and also has purchased the Pro Simulcast System and the Wire To Window Spot Play System (with ESR).
I wanted to take the time in writing and thank you for the winners today.
Two great selections at Aqueduct, Litigate $14.00 and Carity Ball in the
7th at $12.00. I don't play the gimmicks, but they got me fat.
I also used your 'Pro Simulcast' at Keeneland today. In the second race,
the Pro Simucast came up with the 1-2-6-7-9-10. Then I used to
'Wire to Window' system to zero in on the speed. The #1 and #6 stood
out and they finished 6-1. Did not have the exacta, but dutched two horses
to a nice profit.
I then used the Pro Simulcast in the 4th at Keeneland and came up with
the 3 and the 8. I left the 5 out because she had been racing against
state-breds. Then, I ran the WTW system and came up with the 2-4-3-7.
Needless to say, the only common horse was the 3 and paid $18.00.
My day was complete. I hope you had the 7th race pic3 at Aqueduct many
Thank You for giving me a new perspective in handicapping, a profitable
To order the Pace Handicapping Longshots book, click the Buy Now button below:
Below is the Personal Pick 3 Boxcar Payoff Method that gets sent along with the book:
Pandyís Personal Pick 3 Boxcar Payoff Method
Step 1). Using the Pace Shape Spot Play method, find your key horses. For Pick 3ís, if you find two horses in a race that are closely ranked and both are longshots, use both of them in the Pick 3. Remember to focus on the types of races that I mentioned. If the Pick 3 only has one of these races, thatís okay. As long as you have the key horses for at least one race.
Step 2). Use the Pace Shape Spot play method to find other key horses in the other legs of the Pick 3, even if the races are allowance, stakes races, etc. Although the method works best in maiden races and certain types of claiming races, it can still be used for Pick 3 handicapping. Naturally at some tracks youíll be able to find Pick 3 sequences where all of the races are maiden or claiming races, which is even better.
Step 3). Look over the horses in the Pick 3 to see if any other longshot angles in this book apply.
Step 4). Now you should have indentified your Pace Shape spot play longshots in one or more legs. We need to find the other horses to use. Using the speed figures (Bris, Beyer, etc.), look over each horses last three starts at an appropriate distance and surface. In other words, if todayís race is a 6 furlong dirt race, look at the horses best recent dirt sprint figures at 6 furlongs to 7 furlongs. Remember, I donít trust figures lower than 6 furlongs. Circle the two horses that have the best recent speed figures based on their last three starts. For instance, say a horse ran 6 furlongs in 83 last time, but ran 6 Ĺ furlongs in 92 two starts back. That horse is a 92. We are looking for its best recent sprint speed figure based on its last 3 dirt sprint figures. Find the two best horses based on this criteria and circle their names.
Step 5). By now you should have one or two horses in each race that qualify on Pace Shape. If you are confused about a race, say all of the horses have high pace figures and one stands out, donít worry, that happens. You should also have two horses circled in each race that have the top recent speed figures based on todayís distance and surface. At this point, you want to make sure that you have at least 3 horses in each race. If the Pace Shape horses are the same as the Speed Figure horses, you may not.
For instance, say in the first leg of the Pick 3 the 6 horse is the Pace Shape Longshot. And, in that same race, the 5 and 6 have the best recent Speed Figures. That means that you only have two horses in the race to use in the Pick 3. In this situation, find the next-best horse based on Speed Figures. Or, if two horses are closely ranked in E1 and E2 and are clearly superior to the others, use both of them. The bottom line is, for this method, you want to use at least 3 horses in each race.
Step 6). At this point you should have 3 horses circled or written down as your horses in each of the three legs of the Pick 3. Now, look over each race and see if thereís a horse that you are worried about that is not one of the top 3 youíre using, because either you like the horse based on other handicapping principles, or the horse is obviously a legitimate favorite that you are worried about. If you find more than 2 horses, the sequence is probably a pass, unless you feel comfortable making a bet of that size. But, if you find one or two more horses, include them. You can also use longshots that qualify on the Longshot Angle and indicators that Iíve included in this book. The more potential longshots you include, the better chance you have of hitting a Pick 3 that pays big.
This means that you ticket will either be 3 x 3 x 3 (9 horses) or something like 3 x 4 x 4 or 3 x 3 x 5 (11 horses). 3 horses in each race is $27.00 for a $1.00 pick 3. If you add a horse, that cost is $36.00, if you add two horses, the cost is $48.00.
I personally will go up to $64.00 and add 3 horses going 4 x 4 x 4, or 3 x 5 x 4 (12 horses) if I feel that the Pick 3 has a good chance to pay good. I concentrate on Pick 3ís that I feel are not likely to be won by all favorites. This is up to you, everyone has to bet within their comfort zone and bankroll.
I havenít included any ďsinglesĒ here because I recommend that you look for Pick 3 sequences where there are no obvious odds on horses that look like locks. The idea is to go for a big payoff. Iím not a big fan of using singles. Iíd prefer to go something like 3 x 4 x 5 or 3 x 4 x 6 using the techniques Iíve mentioned in this book.
If you have deeper pockets and want to seriously attack the Pick 3, itís a good idea to add a few ďhedge betsĒ on the potential shorter-priced combinations. Plus I sometimes put extra money on combinations that I prefer.
One last point about the Pick 3 method. If youíre a good handicapper and youíre confident in your ability to find the other contenders using your regular handicapping method, thatís great. Then you can just use the Pace Shape Method and other angles and indicators in this book to spot the longshots and your regular method to pick the other contenders. In this case, you can bypass the Speed Figure way of finding the other contenders.
If youíre not into Pick 3ís, thatís fine. You can use the methods in this book to spot live longshots for exactas, doubles, trifectas, superfectas, win bets or win bet parlays. In my next book Iíll show how to use class and late speed to handicap route races and turf races.
Exotic Longshots booklet included as Free Bonus with every order of my book, Pace Handicapping Longshots.
Note: In the 9th race at Aqueduct on Wednesday, April 17, 2013, the top rated Middle T Longshot, Fantastic Eyes, won and paid $87.50. A friend of mine who has the system called me to tell me that this horse, which was 30-1 on the morning line, was the top ranked horse in the race and we both bet it. If you have the system, you could have had this $87.50 winner.